DUMP the chUMps Week - A Look At Defenses

We keep hearing from chUMps that the MSU defense is unproved given MSU has "played nobody" except Notre Dame, while the Ann Arbor Charm School ball club defense is solid and proven.

Time to debunk the hype.

Of the 7 teams UM has played, only 1 has been in the top 50 in more than one of the offensive categories of
rushing, passing, total offense, and scoring. Indiana No. 63, No. 10, No. 10, and No. 8, respectively. PSU was No. 31 in passing and Minnesota was No. 23 in rushing.

In those 2 games, the UM defense marginally contained the offense but allowed IU to score more than its season average. PSU passed above their season average, too. UM defense contained Minnesota rushing attack.

MSU top 50 opponents on offense:
rushing: Iowa, No. 46. CONTAINED
passing: Indiana, No. 10, Illinois No. 43 CONTAINED
total yards: Indiana, No. 10 CONTAINED
scoring: Indians, No. 8 CONTAINED

The only game when the MSU defense did not hold an opponent to less than season average was Iowa, which got 69 yards passing above their season average.

Definition: A lapse  is when a team fails to hold its opponent to less than that opponent's  season average in  the category of interest.

The UM lapses include:
passing: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Akron, Penn St., and Indiana
rushing: none, but Indiana was close
total yards: Notre Dame, Akron, Indiana
scoring: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Akron, Penn St., and Indiana

Let us delve into this a bit deeper.
Ground rule: Since Youngstown State is a FCS team and the only FBS opponent it has faced is MSU, YSU is not included in the following analysis. The YSU data is included at the end.

Passing Defense:
The average ranking of MSU opponents passing yards is 69.6.
MSU opponents so far this season have averaged 229.3 yd/gm.
MSU defense has held its opponents to 171.4 yd/gm, a delta of 69.6 yd/gm below their aggregate season average.

UM is ranked No. 42 with 262.6 passing yd/gm. This is an interesting sub-plot of the game. Who wins? MSU defense or UM offense?
The average ranking of UM opponents passing yards is 62.6, up 7 places in the middle of the pack from MSU.
UM opponents so far this season have averaged 235.9 yd/gm.
UM defense has held its opponents to 255.3 yd/gm, a delta of 19.4 yards ABOVE their aggregate season average.
MSU is ranked No. 106 with 180.9 yd/gm. UM tends to allow teams to pass above their season average (5 of 7 games). Can MSU take advantage of this apparent achilles heel?

Rushing Defense:
The average ranking of MSU opponents rushing yards is 90.7.
MSU opponents so far this season have averaged 133.4 yd/gm.
MSU defense has held its opponents to 70.9 yd/gm, a delta of 62.5 yd/gm below their aggregate season average.
UM is ranked No. 48 with 183.9 yd/gm. This, too, is an interesting sub-plot of the game. Who wins? MSU defense or UM offense?

The average ranking of UM opponents rushing yards is 85.0, up 5 places in the bottom third of FBS teams from MSU.
UM opponents so far this season have averaged 142.7 yd/gm.
UM defense has held its opponents to 99.9 yd/gm, a delta of 42.9 yards below their aggregate season average.
MSU is ranked No. 37 with 196.5 yd/gm. Another sub-plot: MSU rushing offense versus UM defense.

Total Yards:
The average ranking of MSU opponents total yards is 84.6.
MSU opponents so far this season have averaged 362.7 yd/gm.
MSU defense has held its opponents to 242.3 yd/gm, a delta of 120.4 yd/gm below their aggregate season average.
UM is ranked No. 45 with 446.4 yd/gm. Again, MSU defense vs UM offense.

The average ranking of UM opponents total yards is 82.7. This is such an obvious chUMp advantage that I hesitate to continue.
UM opponents so far this season have averaged 378.6 yd/gm. Funny that MSU opponents are weaker yet UM opponents are moving the ball, on average, better.
UM defense has held its opponents to 355.3 yd/gm, a delta of 23.3 yards below their aggregate season average. In other words, the UM defense is not containing anybody. While they do not get blown off the field, they do not stop teams from playing their game.
MSU is ranked No. 87 with 377.4 yd/gm. If things go as they have in the first 7 UM games, the MSU offense will perform at or better than what they have done, on average, through the first 8 games. YSU excluded.

Scoring:
The average ranking of MSU opponents scoring is 81.6.
MSU opponents so far this season have averaged 24.4 pt/gm.
MSU defense has held its opponents to 11.6 pt/gm, a delta of 12.9 pt/gm below their aggregate season average. Opponents have had less than 50% of their average scoring when facing MSU.
UM is ranked No. 8 with 42.4 pt/gm. This is the major plot of the game. Can UM score on arguably the best defense they will face in the regular season?
On paper, UM scores 21-26 points.

The average ranking of UM opponents rushing yards is 76.7, up 5 places in the bottom half of FBS teams.
UM opponents so far this season have averaged 26.6 pt/gm.
UM defense has held its opponents to 26.3 pt/gm, a delta of 0.3 points below their aggregate season average. Oops. UM defense matches MSU offense.
MSU is ranked No. 65 with 29.9 pt/gm. On paper, MSU scores 28-31 points.

We have hears chUMps and Skunkbears making all sorts of chest thumping sounds, allowing their arrogance to run their mouths. While MSU has not faced the toughest schedule in the nation this season, so far, neither has Charm School and, in fact, the schedules are comparable giving only the meagerest of edges to that school down the road.

Except this game is in Spartan Stadium on Macklin Field.
Except this game is not going to match anything that came before it this season.

UM has a few explosive players, but no real depth and these kids face Duzzi's Dawgs, a tough and stingy defense with as much depth as any team in the country could ask for.

MSU has an evolving offense that is beginning to look like it is clicking. It is facing a defense that on paper should not keep it from inching down the field, burning the clock, and keeping the game under Spartan control.

Will it turn out that way? We shall know after the game is over. For now, all we can do is shove statistics and game data into the snouts of our opponents. And hope the gag on facts.

========================
NCAA 2013 Statistics each teams opponents:



Passing:
10. Indiana 342.7 yd/gm MSU allowed 259 yd
43. Illinois 261.3 yd/gm MSU allowed 103 yd
53. Notre Dame 250.0 yd/gm MSU allowed 142 yd
86. Iowa 208.8 yd/gm MSU allowed 277 yd
88. Western Michigan 208.2 yd/gm MSU allowed 193 yd
90. Purdue 202.4 yd/gm MSU allowed 160 yd
117. South Florida 132.0 yd/gm MSU allowed 66 yd
FCS 70 Youngstown State 207.6 yd/gm MSU allowed 121 yd
10. Indiana 342.7 yd/gm Indiana UM allowed 410 yd
31. Penn State 277.0 yd/gm UM allowed 305 yd
53. Notre Dame 250.0 yd/gm UM allowed 314 yd
70. Akron 226.1 yd/gm UM allowed 311 yd
76. Connecticut 217.0 yd/gm UM allowed 159 yd
79. Central Michigan 215.8 yd/gm UM allowed 144 yd
119. Minnesota 122.9 yd/gm UM allowed 145 yd
** 42 Michigan 262.6 yd/gm
** 106 Michigan State 180.9 yd/gm

Rushing:
46. Iowa 188.9 yd/gm MSU allowed 135 yd
63. Indiana 171.3 yd/gm MSU allowed 92 yd
93. Illinois 139.4 yd/gm MSU allowed 25 yd
95. Notre Dame 136.4 yd/gm MSU allowed 78 yd
108. Western Michigan 113.0 yd/gm MSU allowed 11 yd
111. South Florida 108.6 yd/gm MSU allowed 89 yd
119. Purdue 76.1 yd/gm MSU allowed 66 yd
FCS 21 Youngstown State 223.5 yd/gm MSU allowed 56 yd
23. Minnesota 217.8 yd/gm UM allowed 136 yd
63. Indiana 171.3 yd/gm UM allowed 162 yd
85. Penn State 151.9 yd/gm UM allowed 85 yd
95. Notre Dame 136.4 yd/gm UM allowed 96 yd
104. Central Michigan 125.0 yd/gm UM allowed 66 yd
107. Akron 120.0 yd/gm UM allowed 107 yd
118. Connecticut 76.7 yd/gm UM allowed 47 yd
** 48 Michigan 183.9 yd/gm
** 37 Michigan State 196.5 yd/gm

Total Yards:
10. Indiana 514.0 yd/gm MSU allowed 351 yd
73. Illinois 400.7 yd/gm MSU allowed 128 yd
74. Iowa 397.6 yd/gm MSU allowed 412 yd
81. Notre Dame 386.4 yd/gm MSU allowed 220 yd
113. Western Michigan 321.2 yd/gm MSU allowed 204 yd
120. Purdue 278.6 yd/gm MSU allowed 226 yd
121. South Florida 240.6 yd/gm MSU allowed 155 yd
FCS 31 Youngstown State 431.1 yd/gm MSU allowed 177 yd
10. Indiana 514.0 yd/gm UM allowed 572 yd
56. Penn State 428.9 yd/gm UM allowed 390 yd
81. Notre Dame 386.4 yd/gm UM allowed 410 yd
104. Akron 346.1 yd/gm UM allowed 418 yd
106. Central Michigan 340.6 yd/gm UM allowed 210 yd
107. Minnesota 340.6 yd/gm UM allowed 281 yd
116. Connecticut 293.7 UM allowed 206 yd
** 45. Michigan 446.4 yd/gm
** 87. Michigan State 377.4 yd/gm

Scoring:
8. Indiana 42.4 pt/gm MSU allowed 28 pt
58. Illinois 30.7 pt/gm MSU allowed 3 pt
72. Notre Dame 27.9 pt/gm MSU allowed 17 pt
79. Iowa 27.4 pt/gm MSU allowed 14 pt
117. Western Michigan 15.3 pt/gm MSU allowed 13 pt
118. South Florida 14.3 pt/gm, MSU allowed 6 pt
119. Purdue 13.1 pt/gm MSU allowed 0 pt
FCS 10 Youngstown State 39.6 pt/gm MSU allowed 17 pt
8. Indiana 42.4 pt/gm UM allowed 47 pt
60. Penn State 30.6 pt/gm UM allowed 40 pt
63. Minnesota 30.1 pt/gm UM allowed 13 pt
72. Notre Dame 27.9 pt/gm UM allowed 30 pt
107. Akron 20.1 pt/gm UM allowed 24 pt
112. Central Michigan 18.6 pt/gm UM allowed 9 pt
115. Connecticut 16.4 pt/gm UM allowed 21 pt
** 8. Michigan 42.4 pt/gm
** 65. Michigan State 29.9 pt/gm

Those are the facts.

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