Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers

This is an analyses of the Rose Bowl contenders, Stanford versus Michigan State.

Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:

MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4

The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.

The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:

OSU 24 vs MSU 34 (Post-Game)

MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)

MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)

Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

Now we look at the upcoming Rose Bowl -- the Pac-12 Champion Stanford (11-2) versus the B1G Ten Champion, Michigan St. (12-1).

MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.

There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).

NCAA Statistics

Stanford			Michigan State
OFFENSE	Rank	Value	DEFENSE	Rank	Value
Total yd/gm	65	413.1	Total yd/gm	1	248.2
Rush yd/gm	23	210.9	Rush yd/gm	1	80.8
Pass yd/gm	90	202.2	Pass yd/gm	6	167.4
Pass Eff.	17	154.3	Pass Eff.	2	91.5
Scoring pt/gm	39	33.2	Scoring pt/gm	4	12.7
3rd Down Conv. %	33	45.0	3rd Down Conv. %	12	32.4
4th Down Conv. %	19	64.3	4th Down Conv. %	62	51.6
1st Downs	45	272	1st Downs	77	259
Red Zone %	78	80.4	Red Zone %	19	74.4
DEFENSE	Rank	Value	OFFENSE	Rank	Value
Total yd/gm	14	339.0	Total yd/gm	82	384.6
Rush yd/gm	3	91.2	Rush yd/gm	51	182.2
Pass yd/gm	90	247.8	Pass yd/gm	89	202.5
Pass Eff.	48	122.5	Pass Eff.	68	128.0
Scoring pt/gm	10	18.6	Scoring pt/gm	61	29.8
3rd Down Conv. %	12	32.4	3rd Down Conv. %	33	45.0
4th Down Conv. %	62	51.6	4th Down Conv. %	19	64.3
1st Downs	77	259	1st Downs	45	272
Red Zone %	19	74.4	Red Zone %	78	80.4
MISC.	Rank	Value	MISC.	Rank	Value
Punt yd/rtn	T-51	8.9	Punt yd/p	29	38.3
Punt yd/p	42	37.8	Punt yd/rtn	41	10.1
Kickoff yd/rtn	1	27.8	Kickoff yd/rtn	99	19.2
TO/gm	67	-0.1	TO/gm	T-7	1.1
Penalties/gm	41	5.1	Penalties/gm	66	5.5
Penalty yd/gm	50	43.5	Penalty yd/gm	82	51.6
TOP	23	31:59	TOP	5	33:28

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.

Key Matchups

Stanford rush O	210.9 yd/gm	MSU rush D	80.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D	168.6 yd/gm	ave opponent O	168.5 yd/gm
O performance	125.1%	D performance	48.0%
Stanford pass O	202.2 yd/gm	MSU pass D	167.4 yd/gm
ave opponent D	237.5 yd/gm	ave opponent O	220.3 yd/gm
O performance	85.1%	D performance	76.0%
Stanford scoring O	33.2 pt/gm	MSU scoring D	12.7 pt/gm
ave opponent D	28.4 pt/gm	ave opponent O	28.3 pt/gm
O performance	116.9%	D performance	44.9%
MSU rush O	182.2 yd/gm	Stanford rush D	91.2 yd/gm
ave opponent D	175.8 yd/gm	ave opponent O	176.7 yd/gm
O performance	103.6%	D performance	51.6%
MSU pass O	202.5 yd/gm	Stanford pass D	247.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D	225.8 yd/gm	ave opponent O	276.1 yd/gm
O performance	89.7%	D performance	89.8%
MSU scoring O	29.8 pt/gm	Stanford scoring D	18.6 pt/gm
ave opponent D	28.2 pt/gm	ave opponent O	33.4 pt/gm
O performance	105.7%	D performance	55.7%

One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.

The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.

Stanford	MV	SD	min	median	max
Rush O	128.5%	29.6%	93.1%	112.0%	169.0%
Pass O	83.2%	29.0%	37.4%	83.6%	124.9%
Score O	118.4%	35.1%	62.3%	117.9%	175.7%
Rush D	51.4%	30.2%	13.2%	42.9%	112.9%
Pass D	90.1%	25.3%	60.7%	84.8%	132.6%
Score D	57.5%	19.3%	27.4%	57.0%	92.5%
Michigan St.	MV	SD	min	median	max
Rush O	107.3%	26.0%	67.9%	104.2%	170.0%
Pass O	89.2%	29.5%	44.5%	85.6%	151.9%
Score O	109%	47.3%	36.8%	109.4%	219.9%
Rush D	46.1%	38.3%	-36.7%	46.4%	99.3%
Pass D	76.7%	25.6%	35.8%	84.4%	120.3%
Score D	42.8%	26.8%	0.0%	50.3%	85.9%

"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.

Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:

Stanford Predictions

101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards)

147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards)

15 points (+4/-4 points)

Michigan St. Predictions

96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards)

202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards)

19 points (+4/-7 points)

Scored High/Low Ranges

Standford	19	Michigan St.	12
Standford	11	Michigan St.	23

Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction

Stanford 15 vs Michigan St. 19

Based on the results of the 4 prior analyses, we can expect the following results:

Stanford

rush: max prediction + 25 yards

pass: as predicted

score: 21-24 points

Michigan St.

rush: max prediction + 25 yards

pass: max prediction + 25 yards

score: 31-35 points

MSUSpartan76's Bold Prediction

Stanford 24 vs Michigan St. 35

Tweet ****** Click on NO COMMENTS (or # comments) below to enter and view reader comments. ----- Remember to check Spartan Headline links, updated real time, at the bottom of the page (Web version only). Note: If you are receiving this post via automated email, you need to go to the site to view headline links and embedded videos in this post: http://spartanresource.com/ (Web version only). SIGN UP TO RECEIVE POSTS VIA EMAIL, TWITTER OR FACEBOOK IN THE RIGHT COLUMN.