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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Countdown to Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)

Here are my predictions for the MSU football game against Minnesota.
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)

Each game is analyzed with performance-metrics calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

High/Low Ranges
MSU 32, MIN 7
MIN 17, MSU 16

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
MIN 12 at MSU 25



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