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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Countdown To Roses - The Contenders

9 games in the books with 3 remaining. What does it look like in the B1G Ten race Indianapolis?

This is a part 1 of a multi-part, multi-week analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Ohio St.      9-0/5-0
Wisconsin     7-2/4-1
Penn St.      5-4/2-3
Indiana       4-5/2-3
Illinois      3-6/0-5
Purdue        1-8/0-5

Michigan St.  8-1/5-0
Nebraska      7-2/4-1
Minnesota     8-2/4-2
Iowa          6-4/3-3
Michigan      6-3/2-3
Northwestern  4-5/0-5

In the Leaders Division, OSU has the tiebreaker over Wisconsin. For Wisconsin to make the trip to Indianapolis, the Buckeyes have to lose 2 or more and the Badgers have to win out.
Ohio State faces Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. It is hard to find 2 losses in there.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.4815 (13-14).

Wisconsin faces Indiana, Minnesota, and Penn St. Minnesota is hanging on the fringe of this discussion and could very well be a spoiler for the Badger dream of a 3-peat.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6071 (17-11).
In the Legends Division, MSU has a 1 game lead, but plays Nebraska next. A Cornhusker win and the Spartans will be on the broken side of the tie-breaker with 2 games to go.
Michigan State faces Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota. None of those are certain wins for the Spartans.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6786 (19-9).

Nebraska faces Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. The Cornhuskers will know where they stand around 7:00 pm (EST), Nov. 16.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6786 (19-9).

Minnesota with 2 conference losses is on the outside looking in and looking for some serious help. With games versus Wisconsin and at Michigan St. is it even possible the Golden Gophers can run the table, which is exactly what they have to do to even have a chance to go to Lucas Oil Stadium. They do need help from MSU, which would have to also lose at Nebraska or at Northwestern for the Golden Gophers to get the 2nd needed tiebreaker and help from Nebraska (which beat Minnesota and holds the tiebreaker) would have to lose 2 more games.

In the parts that follow, statistical analysis techniques will be used to give insight into each team's performance and how they match up with the Spartans.

MSU at Nebraska
MSU at Northwestern
Minnesota vs MSU
Ohio State or Wisconsin vs MSU

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