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Showing posts with label Stanford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanford. Show all posts

Monday, January 6, 2014

VIDEO - MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: Beyond the Rose Bowl, Part 2 and Video Highlights

ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 

Front-Burner was published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl

Part 1. B1G Championship Game Discussion
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
           2A. ATownAndDown Feature
           2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature
Part 3. Rose Bowl Discussion
           3A. Pre-Game Discusison
           3B. The Game/Results - Beyond the Rose Bowl Part 1
           3C. Beyond the Rose Bowl Part 2  (This Edition)

Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
SpartanMan82 (Check out all of SM82's posts)

Note: This will be the final weekly Front Burner edition. Others will follow as new developments related tot the football team dictate.

First let's take a look at the Rose Bowl and celebration highlights.



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1. MSU has finished as a finalist in high profile recruiting battles frequently in recent years. Should we expect to win those battles more regularly immediately, or will MSU need a validation season in 2014 before Dantonio lands more plan A recruits resulting in top 20 recruiting classes?

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Recruiting is improving. There won't be a sudden jump if you ask me. Coach D has already said the pitch is going to remain the same and that is going to turn off some recruits. There are many recruits that view college football as a transitional league and want to hear what a program and coach are going to do for them to get them to the NFL. That is not what Coach D will ever push. He is going to tell guys how its going to be and what is expected of them at MSU. Some recruits will be smart enough to see the results of having that lunchbox mentality (Coach D has put 24 players in the NFL and with guys like Dennard, Bullough, Lewis, Allen, Fou, etc. that list will grow longer soon) but others want to hear the coach tell them that getting them ready for the NFL is his goal. But you are already seeing bigger recruits looking a little harder at MSU and some of the prognosticators are shifting their speculations toward MSU because of that.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Elsworth was a walk-on. How many star players has MSU produced from the ranks of the recruiting site 2-stars and unrated?

What we should expect is the MSU Spartan Football coaching staff to continue to stuff the roster with kids that fit the program, can be developed, who are willing to put in the work, who play as a team, and who never quit. We need and want those players that fit: Spartans Will!

We do not need chUMps as role models. We do not need to polish recruiting trophies. Those so-called recruiting "battles" are just hype created by the recruiting sites and spoon fed to the fans. MSU needs no validation. The only true validation comes with "Just Win."

SpartanMan82 (Check out chUMp of the Month Winners)
The recruiting situation is already improving. Nothing is certain until LOIs are signed, but getting a verbal from the top player in Pennsylvania last month was a sign of things to come. There is only room for a few more players in the 2014 Class, but it looks like MSU is bidding for some big names to add before signing day in February.

Much has been made of how well Mark Dantonio has done with "lower-tier" recruits, but that success doesn't mean that he only wants 2-star players. He will be going after "higher-tier" recruits for the 2015 Class, and we should see results of those recruiting efforts during the next eight months. I expect next year's group to finish in the Top 20, perhaps Top 15 or better.

Meanwhile, the 2014 Class is ranked around #35 in the country right now, but every time Dantonio is asked about them, he says it's a great group. As long as Dantonio gets who he wants, it won't matter how many stars they have coming out of high school.
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2. What do you think will be the most intriguing stories in the off-season?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Easy. How are the fans going to handle the coaching decisions related to Damion Terry and Connor Cook. Where will Tyler O'Conner fit into the scheme of things.

One other story: Will Desmond Howard actually get a clue?

SpartanMan82 (Check out This Date in chUMp History)
Damion Terry still seems to be a more talented quarterback than Connor Cook, yet Cook has two years experience ahead of him. Will Terry be given a fair chance at the job? If not, will he get to play in non-garbage-time situations? Tyler Hoover guarantees it.

What happens with Don Treadwell? If Narduzzi stays with us, will there be a place for Treadwell on the staff?

What will Mark Hollis do about the perceived "problem" with the student section in Spartan Stadium? Several simple answers are available, and Hollis is more than competent enough to choose one of the solutions to the "problem". Will he fix it?

How do the coaches divide playing time between Jeremy Langford and the other viable running back candidates on the team now and those who will be arriving later this year? Langford will be a Senior, and we don't want a repeat of the LeVeon Bell show from last year, with one running back monopolizing all of the carries for a full season.

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Player development is what I am most intrigued with. Defense will have a ton of talent but there will be holes to fill. Guys like Harris, Davis, LT, Clemons, Bullough, Hicks, Robinson, Edmundson, Jones, Reschke, etc. are all going to be given their opportunities to step up. It will be exciting to see what they do with those opportunities. But even on the offensive side of the ball guys like Holmes, Troup, Madaris, Arnett, Chmura, and even Shelton have showed some flashes. Can any of them step up and rock the boat? Do the starters up their game because of that competition?

Other storylines to watch: Where does Terry shake out and does Coach D go live with the QB's again? Where do guys like Williams and Lyles end up? Does Fowler petition for a 6th year? Potential transfers?
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3. How many losses will be too many for David Brandon to keep the Hokester at the Helm in Ann Arbor? MythAgain plays Notre Dame, Ohio STATE and MSU away from the Pig House. Will Hoke win enough games in 2014 to keep his job?

SpartanMan82 (Check out chUMp Satire)
A five-loss season would be very hard for Hoke to survive, but get ready for his resurrection early in the year. Michigan could again be 6-1, if not 7-0, before the bottom falls out next season. He really needs 10 wins to settle down that fan-base, but he won't get that many.

My guess is that Michigan will finish 8-4 next year, with multiple camps operating behind the scenes regarding the coach situation. If he wins his bowl game, he stays. If he loses his bowl game, he's gone.

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
No clue about if or what it will take for Hoke to keep his job. I have been perplexed by that situation with how the U of M fan base revolted against RichRod who was trending back toward a successful program but they are much more patient with Hoke who was his most successful off what RichRod built and has regressed since then.

I think Dave Brandon needs to worry about his own job. Michigan fans are getting tired of a lot of the business decisions being made regarding the program. Ticket prices are going up again and the home schedule for U of M is App St., Miami (OH), Utah, Minn, PSU, Ind, and Maryland. Also in talking to a few Michigan Men, they are not happy about the App St game being scheduled. While they understand the business side of it (should be an easy win but it will still drum up publicity) the publicity will be negative and remind fans of a very dark day in U of M football. Factor in that he is paying his coaching staff an exorbitant amount of money for the results they are getting and he seems to be putting very little pressure on them to change things up. I have even heard rumors that U of M might struggle to clear 100K in the stands at a couple of those poor games early games. How long do the powers that be at U of M allow their crown jewel to not sparkle?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Who cares? This question, like the team it references, is totally irrelevant.
   Ok, so I suppose I have to give some kind of answer. Here goes. If Coach Choke stops serving donuts and starts serving Dominos Pizza, David "Avoid the Noid" Brandon will keep him for decades.

MSU does not measure its success by whatever happens with the Ann Arbor Charm School football club. Let's leave that to the chUMps to fret over.

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Administrator's Note:  A happy shout out and huge thank you to our Front-Burner Contributors for the 2013 season. You guys really did a great job and brought new readers to SpartanResource.com - Thank you!!!   - Return2Glory

Readers - Please let them know your thoughts about their contributions to Front-Burner by clicking the comment link below!

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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Rose Bowl Post-Game

My predictions are published in Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers
First, congratulations to Stanford for an outstanding season and compliments on a well-played, hard fought constest in Pasadena.

The biggest success in the analysis is the prediction that the Spartans would have a successful passing and and the Cardinal pass game would be somewhat contained. Also, that there would be drama rushing the ball, both ways was mentnioned. All of this came true in an exciting game.

Both teams played tough. Great game.

And, now comes crow time. I either get to crow or I eat crow. Either way, I am covered in roses.

Stanford Predictions:
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards) actual: 162 yards, 34 yards more than predicted.
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards) actual: 143 yards.
15 points (+4/-4 points) actual: 20 points, 1 point higher than predicted.

Michigan St. Predictions:
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards) actual: 65 yards, 9 yards lower than predicted.
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards) actual: 332 yards, 98 yards more than predicted.
19 points (+4/-7 points) actual: 24 points, 1 point higher than predicted.

Margin of victory predicted is 4 points, which matches the game result.

Only 1 of 6 correct but 3 others were very close calls.

Roses are wonderful. I don't think any crow is served today.

Thank you Spartans, may I have another!

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Friday, December 20, 2013

Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers

This is an analyses of the Rose Bowl contenders, Stanford versus Michigan State.

Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:

MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4

The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.

The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:
Now we look at the upcoming Rose Bowl -- the Pac-12 Champion Stanford (11-2) versus the B1G Ten Champion, Michigan St. (12-1).

MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.

There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).

NCAA Statistics

StanfordMichigan State
OFFENSERankValueDEFENSERankValue
Total yd/gm65 413.1 Total yd/gm1 248.2
Rush yd/gm23210.9 Rush yd/gm180.8
Pass yd/gm90202.2 Pass yd/gm6167.4
Pass Eff.17154.3 Pass Eff.291.5
Scoring pt/gm3933.2 Scoring pt/gm412.7
3rd Down Conv. %3345.0 3rd Down Conv. %1232.4
4th Down Conv. %1964.3 4th Down Conv. %6251.6
1st Downs45272 1st Downs77259
Red Zone %7880.4 Red Zone %1974.4
DEFENSERankValueOFFENSERankValue
Total yd/gm14339.0 Total yd/gm82384.6
Rush yd/gm391.2 Rush yd/gm51182.2
Pass yd/gm90247.8 Pass yd/gm89202.5
Pass Eff.48122.5 Pass Eff.68128.0
Scoring pt/gm1018.6 Scoring pt/gm6129.8
3rd Down Conv. %1232.4 3rd Down Conv. %3345.0
4th Down Conv. %6251.6 4th Down Conv. %1964.3
1st Downs77259 1st Downs45272
Red Zone %1974.4 Red Zone %7880.4
MISC.RankValueMISC.RankValue
Punt yd/rtnT-518.9 Punt yd/p2938.3
Punt yd/p4237.8 Punt yd/rtn4110.1
Kickoff yd/rtn127.8 Kickoff yd/rtn9919.2
TO/gm67-0.1 TO/gmT-71.1
Penalties/gm415.1 Penalties/gm665.5
Penalty yd/gm5043.5 Penalty yd/gm8251.6
TOP2331:59 TOP533:28

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.

Key Matchups
Stanford rush O210.9 yd/gmMSU rush D80.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D168.6 yd/gmave opponent O168.5 yd/gm
O performance125.1%D performance48.0%
Stanford pass O202.2 yd/gmMSU pass D167.4 yd/gm
ave opponent D237.5 yd/gmave opponent O220.3 yd/gm
O performance85.1%D performance76.0%
Stanford scoring O33.2 pt/gmMSU scoring D12.7 pt/gm
ave opponent D28.4 pt/gmave opponent O28.3 pt/gm
O performance116.9%D performance44.9%
MSU rush O182.2 yd/gmStanford rush D91.2 yd/gm
ave opponent D175.8 yd/gmave opponent O176.7 yd/gm
O performance103.6%D performance51.6%
MSU pass O202.5 yd/gmStanford pass D247.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D225.8 yd/gmave opponent O276.1 yd/gm
O performance89.7%D performance89.8%
MSU scoring O29.8 pt/gmStanford scoring D18.6 pt/gm
ave opponent D28.2 pt/gmave opponent O33.4 pt/gm
O performance105.7%D performance55.7%

One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.

The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.

StanfordMVSDminmedianmax
Rush O128.5%29.6%93.1%112.0%169.0%
Pass O83.2%29.0%37.4%83.6%124.9%
Score O118.4%35.1%62.3%117.9%175.7%
Rush D51.4%30.2%13.2%42.9%112.9%
Pass D90.1%25.3%60.7%84.8%132.6%
Score D57.5%19.3%27.4%57.0%92.5%
Michigan St.MVSDminmedianmax
Rush O107.3%26.0%67.9%104.2%170.0%
Pass O89.2%29.5%44.5%85.6%151.9%
Score O109%47.3%36.8%109.4%219.9%
Rush D46.1%38.3%-36.7%46.4%99.3%
Pass D76.7%25.6%35.8%84.4%120.3%
Score D42.8%26.8%0.0%50.3%85.9%

"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.

Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:

Stanford Predictions
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards)
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards)
15 points (+4/-4 points)

Michigan St. Predictions
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards)
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards)
19 points (+4/-7 points)

Scored High/Low Ranges
Standford19Michigan St.12
Standford11Michigan St.23

Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
Stanford 15 vs Michigan St. 19
Based on the results of the 4 prior analyses, we can expect the following results:
Stanford
rush: max prediction + 25 yards
pass: as predicted
score: 21-24 points
Michigan St.
rush: max prediction + 25 yards
pass: max prediction + 25 yards
score: 31-35 points
MSUSpartan76's Bold Prediction
Stanford 24 vs Michigan St. 35


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