Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:
MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4
The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.
The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.
The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:
MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.
There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).
|Total yd/gm||65||413.1||Total yd/gm||1||248.2|
|Rush yd/gm||23||210.9||Rush yd/gm||1||80.8|
|Pass yd/gm||90||202.2||Pass yd/gm||6||167.4|
|Pass Eff.||17||154.3||Pass Eff.||2||91.5|
|Scoring pt/gm||39||33.2||Scoring pt/gm||4||12.7|
|3rd Down Conv. %||33||45.0||3rd Down Conv. %||12||32.4|
|4th Down Conv. %||19||64.3||4th Down Conv. %||62||51.6|
|1st Downs||45||272||1st Downs||77||259|
|Red Zone %||78||80.4||Red Zone %||19||74.4|
|Total yd/gm||14||339.0||Total yd/gm||82||384.6|
|Rush yd/gm||3||91.2||Rush yd/gm||51||182.2|
|Pass yd/gm||90||247.8||Pass yd/gm||89||202.5|
|Pass Eff.||48||122.5||Pass Eff.||68||128.0|
|Scoring pt/gm||10||18.6||Scoring pt/gm||61||29.8|
|3rd Down Conv. %||12||32.4||3rd Down Conv. %||33||45.0|
|4th Down Conv. %||62||51.6||4th Down Conv. %||19||64.3|
|1st Downs||77||259||1st Downs||45||272|
|Red Zone %||19||74.4||Red Zone %||78||80.4|
|Punt yd/rtn||T-51||8.9||Punt yd/p||29||38.3|
|Punt yd/p||42||37.8||Punt yd/rtn||41||10.1|
|Kickoff yd/rtn||1||27.8||Kickoff yd/rtn||99||19.2|
|Penalty yd/gm||50||43.5||Penalty yd/gm||82||51.6|
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.
|Stanford rush O||210.9 yd/gm||MSU rush D||80.8 yd/gm|
|ave opponent D||168.6 yd/gm||ave opponent O||168.5 yd/gm|
|O performance||125.1%||D performance||48.0%|
|Stanford pass O||202.2 yd/gm||MSU pass D||167.4 yd/gm|
|ave opponent D||237.5 yd/gm||ave opponent O||220.3 yd/gm|
|O performance||85.1%||D performance||76.0%|
|Stanford scoring O||33.2 pt/gm||MSU scoring D||12.7 pt/gm|
|ave opponent D||28.4 pt/gm||ave opponent O||28.3 pt/gm|
|O performance||116.9%||D performance||44.9%|
|MSU rush O||182.2 yd/gm||Stanford rush D||91.2 yd/gm|
|ave opponent D||175.8 yd/gm||ave opponent O||176.7 yd/gm|
|O performance||103.6%||D performance||51.6%|
|MSU pass O||202.5 yd/gm||Stanford pass D||247.8 yd/gm|
|ave opponent D||225.8 yd/gm||ave opponent O||276.1 yd/gm|
|O performance||89.7%||D performance||89.8%|
|MSU scoring O||29.8 pt/gm||Stanford scoring D||18.6 pt/gm|
|ave opponent D||28.2 pt/gm||ave opponent O||33.4 pt/gm|
|O performance||105.7%||D performance||55.7%|
One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.
The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.
"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.
Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:
Michigan St. Predictions
Scored High/Low Ranges
Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.
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