The Path Is Clear For A Spartan National Football Title

Yet another week of upheavals in the college football rankings just completed. What does all this mean for the Michigan State Spartans? Let's start by looking at what the oddsmakers in Vegas think.

College Football Future Odds (Vegas Insider):
Michigan State 13/2
Florida State 7/1
Mississippi State 7/1
Alabama 8/1
Oklahoma 9/1
Notre Dame 10/1
Ohio State 10/1
Mississippi 10/1
Auburn 12/1
Oregon 12/1
Georgia 14/1
Baylor 15/1
Texas Christian 50/1

Take a second look. The Spartans are currently the odds-on favorite to win it!?

There is a baker's dozen of teams listed. It started with all teams better than 20-to-1 on the Vegas odds list. Looking at the polls resulted in TCU becaming the 13th contender.

Associated Press Top 25
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Mississippi
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Auburn
7. Alabama
8. Michigan State
9. Oregon
10. Georgia
11. Oklahoma
12. Texas Christian
13. Ohio State

Coaches Poll
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Mississippi
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Michigan State
7. Alabama
8. Auburn
9. Oregon
10. Georgia
11. Oklahoma
12. Texas Christian
13. Ohio State

CBSSports.com 128
1. Mississippi State
2. Mississippi
3. Florida State
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Auburn
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. Michigan State
10. Georgia
11. Texas Christian
12. Oklahoma
13. Ohio State

ESPN Power Rankings
1. Mississippi State
2. Mississippi
3. Florida State
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Auburn
7. Georgia
8. Michigan State
9. Alabama
10. Oregon
11. Oklahoma
12. Texas Christian
13. Ohio State

The data for each team is shown. Certainly the selection committee will be looking at this information, but probably a lot more.

In AP Ranking order:
#1 Mississippi State (SEC) 6-0/3-0, Top-25 3-0
Opp W-L: 23-13 pts/gm 41.8-20.0 (21.8 MoV)
Pre-season AP-NR; 2013: 7-6 AP-NR

#2 Florida State (ACC) 6-0/4-0, Top-25 1-0
Opp W-L: 19-19 pts/gm 39.0-20.7 (18.3 MoV)
Pre-season AP-1; 2013: 14-0 AP-1

#3 Mississippi (SEC) 6-0/3-0, Top-25 2-0
Opp W-L: 21-16 pts/gm 35.7-11.8 (23.9 MoV)
Pre-season AP-NR; 2013: 8-5 AP-NR

#4 Baylor (Big 12) 6-0/3-0, Top-25 1-0
Opp W-L: 14-21 pts/gm 52.7-20.0 (32.7 MoV)
Pre-season AP-10; 2013: 11-2 AP-13

#5 Notre Dame (Ind/Acc) 6-0/2-0, Top-25 1-0
Opp W-L: 19-21 pts/gm 34.5-17.2 (17.3 MoV)
Pre-season AP-17; 2013: 9-4 AP-20

#6 Auburn (SEC) 5-1/2-1, Top-25 2-1
Opp W-L: 23-12 pts/gm 38.8-18.3 (20.5 MoV)
Pre-season AP-6; 2013: 12-2 AP-2

#7 Alabama (SEC) 5-1/2-1, Top-25 0-1
Opp W-L: 20-15 pts/gm 33.2-15.3 (27.9 MoV)
Pre-season AP-2; 2013: 11-2 AP-7

#8 Michigan State (B1G Ten) 5-1/2-0, Top-25 1-1
Opp W-L: 23-14 pts/gm 45.5-22.3 (23.2 MoV)
Pre-season AP-8; 2013: 13-1, AP-3

#9 Oregon (Pac-12) 5-1/2-1, Top-25 2-0
Opp W-L: 21-16 pts/gm 43.3-24.3 (19.0 MoV)
Pre-season AP-3; 2013: 11-2 AP-9

#10 Georgia (SEC) 5-1/3-1, Top-25 2-1
Opp W-L: 17-20 pts/gm 43.2-18.0 (25.2 MoV)
Pre-season AP-12; 2013: 8-5 AP-NR

#11 Oklahoma (Big 12) 5-1/2-1, Top-25 0-1
Opp W-L: 17-18 pts/gm 40.5-21.5 (19.0 MoV)
Pre-season AP-4; 2013: 11-2 AP-6

Texas Christian (Big 12) 4-1/1-1, Top-25 1-1
Opp W-L: 19-9 pts/gm 45.8-23.0 (22.8 MoV)
Pre-season AP-NR; 2013: 4-8 AP-NR

Ohio State (B1G Ten) 4-1/1-0, Top-25 0-0
Opp W-L: 13-17 pts/gm 44.6-20.8 (23.8 MoV)
Pre-season AP-5; 2013: 12-2 AP-12

The critical upcoming games for each team make any kind of prediction irrelevant at this time. However, some things can be seen more clearly from the schedules.

Assuming Michigan State wins out, all 5 of the following games will bring the Spartans up in the rankings.

#1 Mississippi State @ #7 Alabama
#1 Mississippi State @ #3 Mississippi
#2 Florida State vs #5 Notre Dame
#3 Mississippi vs #6 Auburn
#6 Auburn @ #7 Alabama

There are 15 other games that likely will impact who goes to the post season title matches.

#4 Baylor @ #11 Oklahoma
#4 Baylor vs #15 Oklahoma State
#4 Baylor vs #14 Kansas State
#5 Notre Dame @ #17 Arizona State
#5 Notre Dame @ #22 Southern California
#6 Auburn @ #10 Georgia
#6 Auburn VS #21 Texas A&M
#7 Alabama #21 Texas A&M
#8 Michigan State vs #13 Ohio State
#9 Oregon @ #20 Utah
#9 Oregon vs #23 Stanford
#11 Oklahoma vs #14 Kansas State
#11 Oklahoma VS #15 Oklahoma State
#12 Texas Christian vs #14 Kansas State
#12 Texas Christian vs #15 Oklahoma State

Mississippi State, Mississippi, and Georgia are the "Cinderella stories" thus far this season. All three came out of nowhere and onto the big stage. So the question about them is, can they keep it up? Do they know how to win while dealing with the media spotlight?

All MSU has to do is what Coach Dantonio said. Just win. Over the next few weeks, 4-6 of the 7 teams ahead of MSU in the polls will take a loss.

The Spartans control their own destiny in this.

JUST WIN!

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Rose Bowl Post-Game

My predictions are published in Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers
First, congratulations to Stanford for an outstanding season and compliments on a well-played, hard fought constest in Pasadena.

The biggest success in the analysis is the prediction that the Spartans would have a successful passing and and the Cardinal pass game would be somewhat contained. Also, that there would be drama rushing the ball, both ways was mentnioned. All of this came true in an exciting game.

Both teams played tough. Great game.

And, now comes crow time. I either get to crow or I eat crow. Either way, I am covered in roses.

Stanford Predictions:
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards) actual: 162 yards, 34 yards more than predicted.
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards) actual: 143 yards.
15 points (+4/-4 points) actual: 20 points, 1 point higher than predicted.

Michigan St. Predictions:
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards) actual: 65 yards, 9 yards lower than predicted.
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards) actual: 332 yards, 98 yards more than predicted.
19 points (+4/-7 points) actual: 24 points, 1 point higher than predicted.

Margin of victory predicted is 4 points, which matches the game result.

Only 1 of 6 correct but 3 others were very close calls.

Roses are wonderful. I don't think any crow is served today.

Thank you Spartans, may I have another!

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Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers

This is an analyses of the Rose Bowl contenders, Stanford versus Michigan State.

Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:

MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4

The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.

The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:

OSU 24 vs MSU 34 (Post-Game)

MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)

MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)

Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

Now we look at the upcoming Rose Bowl -- the Pac-12 Champion Stanford (11-2) versus the B1G Ten Champion, Michigan St. (12-1).

MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.

There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).

NCAA Statistics

Stanford			Michigan State
OFFENSE	Rank	Value	DEFENSE	Rank	Value
Total yd/gm	65	413.1	Total yd/gm	1	248.2
Rush yd/gm	23	210.9	Rush yd/gm	1	80.8
Pass yd/gm	90	202.2	Pass yd/gm	6	167.4
Pass Eff.	17	154.3	Pass Eff.	2	91.5
Scoring pt/gm	39	33.2	Scoring pt/gm	4	12.7
3rd Down Conv. %	33	45.0	3rd Down Conv. %	12	32.4
4th Down Conv. %	19	64.3	4th Down Conv. %	62	51.6
1st Downs	45	272	1st Downs	77	259
Red Zone %	78	80.4	Red Zone %	19	74.4
DEFENSE	Rank	Value	OFFENSE	Rank	Value
Total yd/gm	14	339.0	Total yd/gm	82	384.6
Rush yd/gm	3	91.2	Rush yd/gm	51	182.2
Pass yd/gm	90	247.8	Pass yd/gm	89	202.5
Pass Eff.	48	122.5	Pass Eff.	68	128.0
Scoring pt/gm	10	18.6	Scoring pt/gm	61	29.8
3rd Down Conv. %	12	32.4	3rd Down Conv. %	33	45.0
4th Down Conv. %	62	51.6	4th Down Conv. %	19	64.3
1st Downs	77	259	1st Downs	45	272
Red Zone %	19	74.4	Red Zone %	78	80.4
MISC.	Rank	Value	MISC.	Rank	Value
Punt yd/rtn	T-51	8.9	Punt yd/p	29	38.3
Punt yd/p	42	37.8	Punt yd/rtn	41	10.1
Kickoff yd/rtn	1	27.8	Kickoff yd/rtn	99	19.2
TO/gm	67	-0.1	TO/gm	T-7	1.1
Penalties/gm	41	5.1	Penalties/gm	66	5.5
Penalty yd/gm	50	43.5	Penalty yd/gm	82	51.6
TOP	23	31:59	TOP	5	33:28

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.

Key Matchups

Stanford rush O	210.9 yd/gm	MSU rush D	80.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D	168.6 yd/gm	ave opponent O	168.5 yd/gm
O performance	125.1%	D performance	48.0%
Stanford pass O	202.2 yd/gm	MSU pass D	167.4 yd/gm
ave opponent D	237.5 yd/gm	ave opponent O	220.3 yd/gm
O performance	85.1%	D performance	76.0%
Stanford scoring O	33.2 pt/gm	MSU scoring D	12.7 pt/gm
ave opponent D	28.4 pt/gm	ave opponent O	28.3 pt/gm
O performance	116.9%	D performance	44.9%
MSU rush O	182.2 yd/gm	Stanford rush D	91.2 yd/gm
ave opponent D	175.8 yd/gm	ave opponent O	176.7 yd/gm
O performance	103.6%	D performance	51.6%
MSU pass O	202.5 yd/gm	Stanford pass D	247.8 yd/gm
ave opponent D	225.8 yd/gm	ave opponent O	276.1 yd/gm
O performance	89.7%	D performance	89.8%
MSU scoring O	29.8 pt/gm	Stanford scoring D	18.6 pt/gm
ave opponent D	28.2 pt/gm	ave opponent O	33.4 pt/gm
O performance	105.7%	D performance	55.7%

One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.

The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.

Stanford	MV	SD	min	median	max
Rush O	128.5%	29.6%	93.1%	112.0%	169.0%
Pass O	83.2%	29.0%	37.4%	83.6%	124.9%
Score O	118.4%	35.1%	62.3%	117.9%	175.7%
Rush D	51.4%	30.2%	13.2%	42.9%	112.9%
Pass D	90.1%	25.3%	60.7%	84.8%	132.6%
Score D	57.5%	19.3%	27.4%	57.0%	92.5%
Michigan St.	MV	SD	min	median	max
Rush O	107.3%	26.0%	67.9%	104.2%	170.0%
Pass O	89.2%	29.5%	44.5%	85.6%	151.9%
Score O	109%	47.3%	36.8%	109.4%	219.9%
Rush D	46.1%	38.3%	-36.7%	46.4%	99.3%
Pass D	76.7%	25.6%	35.8%	84.4%	120.3%
Score D	42.8%	26.8%	0.0%	50.3%	85.9%

"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.

Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:

Stanford Predictions

101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards)

147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards)

15 points (+4/-4 points)

Michigan St. Predictions

96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards)

202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards)

19 points (+4/-7 points)

Scored High/Low Ranges

Standford	19	Michigan St.	12
Standford	11	Michigan St.	23

Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction

Stanford 15 vs Michigan St. 19

Based on the results of the 4 prior analyses, we can expect the following results:

Stanford

rush: max prediction + 25 yards

pass: as predicted

score: 21-24 points

Michigan St.

rush: max prediction + 25 yards

pass: max prediction + 25 yards

score: 31-35 points

MSUSpartan76's Bold Prediction

Stanford 24 vs Michigan St. 35

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Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game Post-Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown to Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

I shall repeat this again:
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In the Countdown to Roses post I acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

The biggest question going into the game was which would win: the irresistable force (OSU rushing attack and OSU scoring offense) or the immovable object (MSU rushing defense and MSU scoring defense)?

It would seem the OSU rushing attack won that part of the contest being held back merely 48 yds below average while the MSU rushing defense was pushed around by 198 yards more than their season average. On the other hand, the OSU scoring offense was held to 24 pts, 50% of their season average while the MSU defense was bullied 12 pts (100%) above their season average. The irresistable force was not so irresistable and the immovable object was bent and slipped, but did not break.

In the statistical sense, OSU rushing was held to 85% of their season average, OSU passing was 48% of average, total OSU offense was 70% of average, and OSU scoring was 50% of average. So while the MSU defense got bullied by the OSU rushing (6.8 yards per rush) and scoring, OSU was ultimately stopped.

On the flip side, while MSU rushing was held to 72% of their season average, the MSU passing attack was magnificent at 157% of their season average and posted the best passing yards of the season. MSU total yards was also above average (115%) and so was the scoring (116%). The much maligned MSU passing game gained a respectable 12.7 yards per completion.

Pregame assessments by the media and fans questioned whether or not the MSU defense could stop the "explosive" OSU offense. It seems it did, but OSU had the edge. OSU gained 273 yards rushing, including Miller breaking out for 48, 21, and 24 yards (the other 18 Miller rushes totalled 49 yards, 2.7 yd/carry). But, the MSU defense stood tall and stopped Miller and the OSU rush when it needed to, more than once. OSU was 1 of 10 in 3rd down conversions and 0 of 2 in 4th down attempts.

Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

The B1G Ten Conference Championship

Leaders Division Champion Ohio St. 12-0/8-0

versus

Legends Division Champion Michigan St. 11-1/8-0

This is the last of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Leaders Division:
Ohio State barely eked out the win versus Michigan. UM Coach Brady Hoke elected to go for the win but a Buckeye interception in the 2 point conversion play ended the threat of a major upset.
Legends Division:
Michigan State faced Minnesota in a smashmouth game 14-3.

Ohio State vs MSU: What does it look like? From the NCAA data we see:

Ohio St. rush offense (No. 2) 321.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 171.8 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. rush defense (No. 1) 64.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 156.7 yd/gm

Ohio St. pass offense (No. 83) 209.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 233.1 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. pass defense (No. 9) 172.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 222.1 yd/gm

Ohio St. scoring offense (No. 3) 48.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.4 pt/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. scoring defense (No. 4) 11.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.8 pt/gm

Michigan St. rush offense (No. 47) 186.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. rush defense (No. 5) 100 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 159.6 yd/gm

Michigan St. pass offense (No. 95) 194 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 223.3 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. pass defense (No. 98) 255.8 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 240.9 yd/gm

Michigan St. scoring offense (No. 63) 29.4 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.8 pt/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. scoring defense (No. 18) 20.3 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.7 pt/gm

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of scoring a TD less than their season average and (2) the Buckeye offense will be seriously tested as will the Spartan defense and this is the story of the game. Note that the OSU passing game generally is held to fewer yards than their opponents' season averages (95%). Also OSU opponents generally put up better than season average passing yards when playing OSU (104%).

The data above, however, does little to tell the whole story. What follows is a statistical analysis of the performace of each team through the season. Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used.

The biggest question of the game is which wins, the irresistable force or the immovable object? In otherwords, the OSU rushing offense versus the MSU rushing defense or the MSU scoring defense versus the OSU scoring offense. Both teams have had claims of "inflated stats" made due to having "played nobody." Is this true?

OSU has played 12 teams. Listed with each team is their season average rushing defense and the performance of the OSU offense versus that team.

Buffalo               159.8 163%
San Diego St.     132.9 198%
California           188.6 176%
Florida A&M     195.6 198%
Wisconsin          101.3 190%
Northwestern     167.3 148%
Iowa                   120.8 226%
Penn St.              144.0 283%
Purdue                235.4 147%
Illinois                238.6 185%
Indiana               237.8 131%
Michigan            139.4 282%
Michigan St.        64.8

The performance Mean Value is 193.9% (MV) which means that OSU typically rushes for almost twice what their opponent typically allows. The Standard Deviation (SD) is 47.0%, which means the distribution of the data is fairly wide indicating the performance is somewhat inconsistent. A smaller SD indicates a higher consistency.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior 3 games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 8 of 18 performance metrics. Given the nature of the analysis, a 30% to 40% success rate would be expected.

So, OSU has a performance MV of 193.9% with a SD of 47.0%. Applied to the MSU average rushing defense means OSU could rush for 95.2 to 156.1 yds with the most likely result being 125.6 yds. The probability associated with a MV +/- 1 SD is 68.4%.

Looking at it from the Spartan defense point of view we see:

Western Mich.    116.2   9%
South Fla.              96.8  92%
Youngstown St.  195.4  29%
Notre Dame        149.3  52%
Iowa                    188.6  12%
Indiana                201.8  46%
Purdue                  67.1  98%
Illinois                139.0  18%
Michigan            130.8 -37%
Nebraska             221.7  82%
Northwestern      172.4  46%
Minnesota           200.9  58%
Ohio St.               321.3     

The performance MV is 42.2% with a SD of 37.1%. Applying this to the OSU rushing average (with the same assumptions) shows MSU holding the OSU rushing offense to 16.1 to 254.8 yds with the most likely result being 135.5 yds.

To reconcile the 2 results we take the intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-). This gives the following prediction:

Prediction: Ohio St. 131 yards rushing (+25/-35 yards)

That is how it has been done for the prior 3 games. Not wishing to bore everyone with excrutiating detail, here are the rest of the predictions. They all employ the same methodolgy and NCAA data.

Prediction: Ohio St. 164 yards passing (+54/-52 yards)
Prediction: Ohio St. 20 points (+6/-6 points)

Prediction: MSU 112 yards rushing (+20/-33 yards)
Prediction: MSU 212 yards passing (+67/-66 yards)
Prediction: MSU 21 points (+10/-9)

High/Low Ranges
OSU 26, MSU 12
MSU 31, OSU 14

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
OSU 20 vs MSU 21

Additional Reading:
Review Game 1
Review Game 2
Review Game 3
MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)
MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)
Minnesota at MSU (Anaylsis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

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Countdown to Roses - Minnesota at MSU Post Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown To Roses - Minnesota at MSU
Minnesota at MSU Prediction Summary.
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In Countdown, it was acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards). Actual: 188 yds
Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards). Actual: 143 yds
Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points). Actual: 14 pts

Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards). Actual: 116 yds
Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards). Actual: 127 yds
Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points). Actual: 3 pts

Only 2 of 6 predictions were accurate.

Crow, roasted, is quite good.
Then there are crow tacos with salsa and beer.
Trust me, crow tastes pretty damned good when it comes with a Spartan Victory!

My personal prediction as posted in comments on MLive.com was 32-7. Not even close.

Next up, the Buckeyes at Lucas Oil, then off to the Rose Bowl.

GO STATE!


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LET'S ALL SAY "THANKS" FOR SPARTAN SPORTS SUCCESS

(This is our 2013 Thanksgiving Day Prayer)

On this Thanksgiving Day, let's all say thanks to Michigan State University, for all the happiness that has come to all of us in Spartan Nation from the success of our major sports teams:

The MSU MEN'S BASKETBALL team is on a SIX-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #1 in the nation

The MSU FOOTBALL team is on a SEVEN-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #11 in the nation

The MSU WOMEN'S BASKETBALL team is on a FIVE-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #21 in the nation

The achievements of these teams has come through hard work, not luck; through perseverance, not chance; and through the dedication of hundreds of men and women focused on their daily assignments, not simply because a huge pot of money was left at their doorstep overnight.

While there are many more important things for which we should be thankful, we have all had many holiday seasons that we have experienced without the joy which these teams have brought to us and our families, as they have done this year.





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Countdown to Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)

Here are my predictions for the MSU football game against Minnesota.
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)

Each game is analyzed with performance-metrics calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

High/Low Ranges
MSU 32, MIN 7
MIN 17, MSU 16

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
MIN 12 at MSU 25

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Countdown To Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Analysis)

In Part 3 of Countdown To Roses - The Contenders, updates to the conference rankings and probable matchups in the march towards Indianapolis were discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they next have to face Minnesota in East Lansing. Winning is expected, but win or lose, the Spartans are the Legends Division Champions.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated.
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of a season average score or higher and (2) the Gopher offense will be stopped and the final score might not be close at all.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.
Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm

The Golden Gophers have been held below 100 yards just once this season. Versus conference opponents, they average 165 yd/gm. Minnesota was throttled by Iowa with 30 yards and had a romp over San Jose State rushing for 353 yards. Except for Nebraska, which was held to 78% of their season average, the Spartan Dawgs have held their opponents to under 100 yds and 8 of 11 games to less than 50% of their season rushing averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 39.9%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 2/5 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 37.4%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Minnesota to between 2.5% and 77.3% of their season average, which translates to 5.2 yds to 160.1 yds with the most likely result being 83.0 yds.
The Gopher rush offense performance has a MV of 113.5% with a SD of +/- 36.5%. The Gophers versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 45.7 and 89.1 yds with the most likely result being 67.4 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 45.7 to 89.1 yards. The highest probability range is 67.4 to 83.0 yards rushing.

Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm

The Minnesota passing attack is the worst MSU has faced this season. 4 of 11 Spartan opponents have been held to fewer yards than the Gophers average. This deficiency could make the Golden Gophers 1-dimensional, which plays well into the Spartan Dawgs who excell in rush defense.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 79.6% with a SD of +/- 26.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Gopher passing game to 75.7 to 152.6 yds with the most likely result being 114.2 yds.
The Gopher pass offense performance has a MV of 65.4% with a SD of +/- 23.3%, which translates to Minnesota likely to pass for between 74.7 and 157.3 yds with the most likely result being 116.0 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 75.7 to 152.6 yards. The highest probability range is 114.2 to 116.0 yards passing.

Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
...versus ...
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm

Minnesota scoring was high in the OOC games (41.75 pt/gm) but is 20 pts/gm lower in conference play (21.0 pt/gm). This drop off reflects the 3 conference losses (all by 13 points or more). Also, there have been 2 close (3 point) wins. Both Iowa and Wisconsin held the Gophers to a single TD. Michigan State has held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana and Nebraska, both of which scored 4 TDs. Opponents in 5 of 11 games scored 6 points or less, including the Purdue shutout.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 44.8% with a SD of +/- 26.9%, which translates to Gophers scoring between 5.1 to 20.4 pts with the most likely result being 12.8 pts.
The Gopher scoring offense performance has a MV of 95.3% with a SD of +/- 36.9%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Gophers to between 7.3 and 16.5 pts with the most likely outcome being 11.9 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 7.8 to 16.5 points. The highest probability range is 11.9 to 12.8 points.

Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm

Minnesota has held 3 opponents to under 100 yards rushing (Nebraska was 94 yds). 2 opponents rushed for more than 200 yards and another 4 were 189 to 199 yards rushing. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 105.6% with a SD of +/- 25.9%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 120.8 to 199.1 yds rushing with the most likely result being 159.9 yds.
The Gopher rush defense performance has a MV of 82.1% with a SD of +/- 29.8%, which translates to the Gophers holding MSU to 97.6 to 208.9 yards rushing with the most likely result being 153.2 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 120.8 to 199.1 yards. The highest probability range is 153.2 to 159.9 yards rushing.

Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
...versus ...
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 5 of 11, but has passed for more than 200 yards in the last 3. All but 7 of Minnesota's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (San Jose St. passed for 439 yds) and the 2 of the sub-200 yd passing opponents were in the last 2 games.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 89.0% with a SD of +/- 30.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 131.1 to 267.7 yds passing with the most likely result being 199.4 yds.
The Gopher pass defense performance has a MV of 93.0% with a SD of +/- 19.5%, which translates to the Gophers allowing MSU to 146.1 to 223.4 yds passing with the most likely result being 184.8 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 146.1 to 223.4 yards. The highest probability range is 184.8 to 199.4 yards passing.

Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
...versus …
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 4 games (55 vs YSU). MIN has held opponents to 20 points or less in 3 games and has given up 40 points just once (Indiana scored 39).

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 110.4% with a SD of +/- 47.7%, which translates to scoring between 14.5 to 36.5 pts versus the Gopher defense with the most likely result being 25.5 pts.
The Minnesota scoring defense performance has a MV of 78.2% with a SD of +/- 25.1%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 16.3 and 31.8 pts with the most likely outcome being 24.1 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 16.3 to 31.8 points. The highest probability range is 24.1 to 25.5 points.

Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

The win loss percentage of Minnesota's opponents on the season is 0.5000 (including a 4-8 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4463 (including a 8-4 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MIN 12 at MSU 25
(1st sigma range: MSU 16-32 at MIN 7-17)

Min/Max extremes:
MIN 7 at MSU 32
MIN 17 at MSU 16

MSU is playing to prove the 2012 season really was just inches from a better season and the 2010 and 2011 seasons were not the anomalies proclaimed by many naysayers, especially the chUMps. Minny is playing to prove this year is not a fluke and to achieve a 10-win season for the first time since 2003.

This will be a game to watch, even if no titles or championships are on the line!

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Countdown To Roses - The Contenders Game 3

This is part 3 of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.
Review Game 1
Review Game 2

11 games in the books with 2 remaining. What does it look like in the B1G Ten race to Indianapolis?

LEADERS DIVISION
Ohio St.       11-0/7-0
Wisconsin      9-2/6-1
Penn St.         6-5/3-4
Indiana          4-7/2-5
Illinois           4-7/1-6
Purdue           1-10/0-7

LEGENDS DIVISION
Michigan St.   10-1/7-0
Nebraska        8-3/5-2
Minnesota       8-3/4-3
Iowa                7-4/3-4
Michigan        7-4/3-4
Northwestern  4-7/0-7

Leaders Division: OSU.
Ohio State faces Michigan in its tune up game for Indianapolis. It is hard to find a loss there.
UolM W-L% is 0.6364 (7-4), having lost 3 of the past 4 and the sole win was eked out in 3OT.

Legends Division: MSU.
Michigan State faces Minnesota before boarding the bus to Lucas Stadium. The trip is assured, but a win over the Gophers is far from certain for the Spartans.

MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 Post-Game

MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 Post-Game

Minnesota at MSU (Analysis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota at MSU Post-Game

Ohio State vs MSU


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Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern Post Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern
and
GAME-DAY PREDICTIONS BY MSUSPARTAN 76: MSU vs NW
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In Countdown, it was acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 165 (+23/-40) yds. Actual: 168 yds
Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 211 (+54/-53) yds. Actual: 292 yds
Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+5/-8) pts. Actual: 30

Prediction, Northwestern yards rushing: 71 (+21/-24) yds. Actual: 80 yds
Prediction, Northwestern yards passing: 151 (+56/-56) yds. Actual: 239 yds
Prediction, Northwestern scoring: 13 (+7/-3) pts. Actual: 6

Only 2 of 6 predictions were accurate.

Crow chili, barbecued crow, broiled crow, crow stew, all good.
Then there is crow with salsa and beer.

Trust me, crow tastes pretty damned good when it's flavored with a Spartan Victory!

My personal prediction as posted in comments on MLive.com was 42-6. MSU knelt on the 5 to end the game. Had Drummond gotten a break, the game would have ended 37-6. Close enough.

Next up, the Golden Gophers, then the Buckeyes, then off to the Rose Bowl.

GO STATE!


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Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern

In Part 2 of The Contenders, updates to the conference rankings and probable matchups in the march towards Indianapolis were discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they next have to go to Evanston and come back with the win.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated.

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of a season average score and (2) the Wildcat offense will be stopped and the final score might not be close at all.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.

Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?



NW rush offense (No. 53) 184.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 146.8 yd/gm
...versus …
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 57.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 154 yd/gm

Northwestern has an average rush offense. The Wildcats have been held below 100 yards in 3 games and all of those were versus conference contenders (OSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota). Versus Nebraska, the Wildcat rushing game did well above average (245 yds). In contests with lesser opponents, NW has gained 200-plus yds including one 300-yd game. Except for Nebraska, which was held to 76% of their season average, the Spartan Dawgs have held their opponents to under 100 yds and 7 of 10 games to less than 50% (ND was 52%) of their season rushing averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 39.4%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 2/5 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 39.1%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Northwestern to between 0.3% and 78.5% of their season average, which translates to 0.5 yds to 144.7 yds with the most likely result being 82.6 yds.
The Wildcat rush offense performance has a MV of 121.6% with a SD of +/- 39.4%. The Wildcats versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 47.1 and 92.3 yds with the most likely result being 69.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 47.1 to 92.3 yards. The highest probability range is 67.1 to 72.6 yards rushing.

Prediction, Northwestern yards rushing: 71 (+21/-24) yards.

NW pass offense (No. 86) 207.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 221.4 yd/gm
...versus …
MSU pass defense (No. 5) 171.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 226.4 yd/gm

Aside from Youngstown State, Northwestern has the most potent passing attack the Spartans have faced this season, so far. 5 of 10 Spartan opponents have eclipsed the 200 yard mark. The 10  Northwestern opponents, taken together, averaged 221.4 yards passing allowed over the season and (as a group) held the Wildcats to only 20 yd/gm less than their aggregate pass defense average.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 69.7% with a SD of +/- 29.9%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Wildcat passing game to 82.5 to 206.6 yds with the most likely result being 144.6 yds.
The Wildcat pass offense performance has a MV of 91.8% with a SD of +/- 36.0%, which translates to Northwestern likely to pass for between 95.4 and 218.8 yds with the most likely result being 157.1 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 95.4 to 206.6 yards. The highest probability range is 144.6 to 157.1 yards passing.

Prediction, Northwestern yards passing: 151 (+56/-56) yds.

NW scoring offense (No. 78) 27.1 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 25.1 pt/gm
...versus …
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 13.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.4 pt/gm

Northwestern scoring was high in the 1st 5 games (30 to 48 pts scored) but has dropped substantially in the 2nd 5 games. This drop off reflects the 6-game losing streak currently owned by NW. NW has scored 20 or more points only the Nebraska game since the drop of began. Michigan State had held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana and Nebraska, both of which scored 4 TDs.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 45.4% with a SD of +/- 26.7%, which translates to Wildcats scoring between 5.1 to 19.5 pts with the most likely result being 12.3 pts.
The Wildcat scoring offense performance has a MV of 106.2% with a SD of +/- 46.9%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Wildcats to between 7.8 and 20.2 pts with the most likely outcome being 14.0 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 7.8 to 19.5 points. The highest probability range is 12.3 to 14.0 points.

Prediction, Northwestern scoring: 13 (+7/-3) pts.

MSU rush offense (No. 48) 188.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 183.9 yd/gm
...versus …
NW rush defense (No. 68) 165.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 203.7 yd/gm

All of Northwestern's opponents, except California, rushed for over 100 yards with Ohios State and Wisconsin eclipsing the 200 yd mark. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 106.3% with a SD of +/- 30.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 124.7 to 226.5 yds rushing with the most likely result being 175.6 yds.
The Wildcat rush defense performance has a MV of 82.3% with a SD of +/- 17.6%, which translates to the Wildcats holding MSU to 121.7 to 188.1 yards rushing with the most likely result being 154.9 yds.

As an item of note, a standard deviation of 17.6% indicates a very consistent performance, game to game.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 124.7 to 188.1 yards. The highest probability range is 154.9 to 175.6 yards rushing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 165 (+23/-40) yds.

MSU pass offense (No. 96) 189.2 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 224.9 yd/gm
...versus …
NW pass defense (No. 94) 247.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 197.7 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 5 of 10 games with one of those being less than 100 yards (S. Florida). All but 2 of Northwestern's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (2 for over 300 yards) and the 2 sub-200 yd passing opponents were in the last 5 games.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 84.7% with a SD of +/- 28.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 138.2 to 280.9 yds passing with the most likely result being 209.5 yds.
The Wildcat pass defense performance has a MV of 111.8% with a SD of +/- 28.3%, which translates to the Wildcats allowing MSU to 157.9 to 265.1 yds passing with the most likely result being 211.5 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 157.9 to 265.1 yards. The highest probability range is 209.5 to 211.5 yards passing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 211 (+54/-53) yds.

MSU scoring offense (No. 53) 30.9 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.7 pt/gm
...versus …
NW scoring defense (No. 61) 26.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 31.1 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 4 games. NW has held opponents to 20 points or less in 3 games and has given up 40 points just once.

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 109.9% with a SD of +/- 53.1%, which translates to scoring between 14.8 to 42.5 pts versus the Wildcat defense with the most likely result being 28.7 pts.
The Northwestern scoring defense performance has a MV of 86.4% with a SD of +/- 21.1%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 20.2 and 33.2 pts with the most likely outcome being 26.7 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 20.2 to 33.2 points. The highest probability range is 26.7 to 28.7 points.

Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+5/-8) pts.

The win loss percentage of Northwestern's opponents on the season is 0.6177 (including a 10-1 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4554 (including a 8-3 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MSU 24 at NW 13
(1st sigma range: MSU 16-29 at NW 10-20)

Min/Max extremes:
MSU 16 at NW 20
MSU 29 at NW 10

Given the Wildcats have "fallen off the cliff" it is not improbable that MSU wins in a shutout. On the other hand, the Wildcats have been a spoiler for the Spartans too often in recent history to just count this game as a win before it is played. Northwestern was ranked early in the season, too, which means they have potential to play better than they have during their recent skid.

Post game comments are here.

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