Countdown To Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Analysis)

In Part 3 of Countdown To Roses - The Contenders, updates to the conference rankings and probable matchups in the march towards Indianapolis were discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they next have to face Minnesota in East Lansing. Winning is expected, but win or lose, the Spartans are the Legends Division Champions.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated.
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of a season average score or higher and (2) the Gopher offense will be stopped and the final score might not be close at all.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.
Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm

The Golden Gophers have been held below 100 yards just once this season. Versus conference opponents, they average 165 yd/gm. Minnesota was throttled by Iowa with 30 yards and had a romp over San Jose State rushing for 353 yards. Except for Nebraska, which was held to 78% of their season average, the Spartan Dawgs have held their opponents to under 100 yds and 8 of 11 games to less than 50% of their season rushing averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 39.9%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 2/5 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 37.4%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Minnesota to between 2.5% and 77.3% of their season average, which translates to 5.2 yds to 160.1 yds with the most likely result being 83.0 yds.
The Gopher rush offense performance has a MV of 113.5% with a SD of +/- 36.5%. The Gophers versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 45.7 and 89.1 yds with the most likely result being 67.4 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 45.7 to 89.1 yards. The highest probability range is 67.4 to 83.0 yards rushing.

Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm

The Minnesota passing attack is the worst MSU has faced this season. 4 of 11 Spartan opponents have been held to fewer yards than the Gophers average. This deficiency could make the Golden Gophers 1-dimensional, which plays well into the Spartan Dawgs who excell in rush defense.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 79.6% with a SD of +/- 26.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Gopher passing game to 75.7 to 152.6 yds with the most likely result being 114.2 yds.
The Gopher pass offense performance has a MV of 65.4% with a SD of +/- 23.3%, which translates to Minnesota likely to pass for between 74.7 and 157.3 yds with the most likely result being 116.0 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 75.7 to 152.6 yards. The highest probability range is 114.2 to 116.0 yards passing.

Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
...versus ...
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm

Minnesota scoring was high in the OOC games (41.75 pt/gm) but is 20 pts/gm lower in conference play (21.0 pt/gm). This drop off reflects the 3 conference losses (all by 13 points or more). Also, there have been 2 close (3 point) wins. Both Iowa and Wisconsin held the Gophers to a single TD. Michigan State has held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana and Nebraska, both of which scored 4 TDs. Opponents in 5 of 11 games scored 6 points or less, including the Purdue shutout.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 44.8% with a SD of +/- 26.9%, which translates to Gophers scoring between 5.1 to 20.4 pts with the most likely result being 12.8 pts.
The Gopher scoring offense performance has a MV of 95.3% with a SD of +/- 36.9%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Gophers to between 7.3 and 16.5 pts with the most likely outcome being 11.9 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 7.8 to 16.5 points. The highest probability range is 11.9 to 12.8 points.

Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm

Minnesota has held 3 opponents to under 100 yards rushing (Nebraska was 94 yds). 2 opponents rushed for more than 200 yards and another 4 were 189 to 199 yards rushing. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 105.6% with a SD of +/- 25.9%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 120.8 to 199.1 yds rushing with the most likely result being 159.9 yds.
The Gopher rush defense performance has a MV of 82.1% with a SD of +/- 29.8%, which translates to the Gophers holding MSU to 97.6 to 208.9 yards rushing with the most likely result being 153.2 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 120.8 to 199.1 yards. The highest probability range is 153.2 to 159.9 yards rushing.

Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
...versus ...
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 5 of 11, but has passed for more than 200 yards in the last 3. All but 7 of Minnesota's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (San Jose St. passed for 439 yds) and the 2 of the sub-200 yd passing opponents were in the last 2 games.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 89.0% with a SD of +/- 30.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 131.1 to 267.7 yds passing with the most likely result being 199.4 yds.
The Gopher pass defense performance has a MV of 93.0% with a SD of +/- 19.5%, which translates to the Gophers allowing MSU to 146.1 to 223.4 yds passing with the most likely result being 184.8 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 146.1 to 223.4 yards. The highest probability range is 184.8 to 199.4 yards passing.

Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
...versus …
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 4 games (55 vs YSU). MIN has held opponents to 20 points or less in 3 games and has given up 40 points just once (Indiana scored 39).

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 110.4% with a SD of +/- 47.7%, which translates to scoring between 14.5 to 36.5 pts versus the Gopher defense with the most likely result being 25.5 pts.
The Minnesota scoring defense performance has a MV of 78.2% with a SD of +/- 25.1%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 16.3 and 31.8 pts with the most likely outcome being 24.1 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 16.3 to 31.8 points. The highest probability range is 24.1 to 25.5 points.

Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

The win loss percentage of Minnesota's opponents on the season is 0.5000 (including a 4-8 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4463 (including a 8-4 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MIN 12 at MSU 25
(1st sigma range: MSU 16-32 at MIN 7-17)

Min/Max extremes:
MIN 7 at MSU 32
MIN 17 at MSU 16

MSU is playing to prove the 2012 season really was just inches from a better season and the 2010 and 2011 seasons were not the anomalies proclaimed by many naysayers, especially the chUMps. Minny is playing to prove this year is not a fluke and to achieve a 10-win season for the first time since 2003.

This will be a game to watch, even if no titles or championships are on the line!

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