Countdown To Roses - MSU at Nebraska

In Part 1, The Contenders, the current rankings and probable matchup in Indianapolis was discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they first have to go to Lincoln and come back with the win.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated. For example. Take 2 running backs. Both have an average of 3.0 yd/carry. One of them has 200 carries with runs ranging from -25 yards to +95 yards. The other has 120 carries with runs running from 2 yards to 6 yards. The averages listed on the "stats sheet" hides the consistency of the latter and the dynamics of the former.

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform at their season averages, with the possibility of a slightly lower score and (2) the Cornhusker offense will be slowed and the final score could be very close.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.

Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?

Michigan State at Nebraska

NEB rush offense (No. 14) 246.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 188.7 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 43.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 145.7 yd/gm

Nebraska has a better rush offense than any of the Spartan's prior opponents. The Cornhuskers have been held back in their last 3 games by Minnesota (189 yds), Northwestern (195 yds), and Michigan (128 yds). The Spartan Dawgs have held all of their opponents under 100 yds, and 7 of 9 to 50% or less of their season averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 34.8%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 1/3 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 38.8%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Nebraska to between -3.9% and 73.6% of their season average, which translates to -9.7 yds to 181.6 yds with the most likely result being 86.0 yds.

The Cornhusker rush offense performance has a MV of 129.2% with a SD of +/- 39.9%. The Cornhuskers versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 43.1 and 69.0 yds with the most likely result being 56.1 yds.
The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 43.1 to 69.0 yards. The highest probability range is 56.1 to 86.0 yards rushing.

Prediction, Nebraska yards rushing: 71 (+15/-28) yards.

NEB pass offense (No. 93) 199.2 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 231.6 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU pass defense (No. 3) 166.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 234.3 yd/gm

Only 2 of the Spartan's prior opponents have had more anemic passing attacks than Nebraska. Only 3 have eclipsed the 200 yard mark. The 9 Nebraska opponents, taken together, averaged 231.6 yards passing allowed over the season and (as a group) held the Cornhuskers to nearly 50 yd/gm less than their aggregate average.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 71.6% with a SD of +/- 24.6%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Cornhusker passing game to 93.6 to 191.6 yds with the most likely result being 142.6 yds.
The Cornhusker pass offense performance has a MV of 86.7% with a SD of +/- 26.1%, which translates to Nebraska likely to pass for between 101.2 and 188.2 yds with the most likely result being 144.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 101.2 to 188.2 yards. The highest probability range is 142.6 to 144.7 yards passing.

Prediction, Nebraska yards passing: 144 (+44/-43) yds.

NEB scoring offense (No. 28) 35.9 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 27.5 pt/gm
...versus ...
MSU scoring defense (No. 3) 11.6 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.2 pt/gm

Nebraska has scored 20 or more points in all games except the last game versus Michigan.
Michigan State had held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 40.6% with a SD of +/- 24.9%, which translates to Cornhusker scoring between 5.7 to 23.5 pts with the most likely result being 14.6 pts.
The Cornhusker scoring offense performance has a MV of 117.6% with a SD of +/- 43.0%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Cornhuskers to between 8.7 and 18.6 pts with the most likely outcome being 13.6 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 8.7 to 18.6 points. The highest probability range is 13.6 to 14.6 points.

Prediction, Nebraska scoring: 14 (+5/-5) pts.

MSU rush offense (No. 44) 190.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rushing defense of 178.7 yd/gm
...versus ...
NEB rush defense (No. 61) 160.0 yd/gm versus average opponent rushing offense of 153.4 yd/gm

6 of Nebraska's opponents have rushed for more yards than MSU has averaged on the season, but only 3 of those teams have higher season averages. 5 of 9 Nebraska opponents rushed for more than 200 yards in their games, but Nebraska has also held 3 opponents to under 100 yards. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 111.7% with a SD of +/- 37.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 118.7 to 238.9 yds rushing with the most likely result being 178.8 yds.
The Cornhusker rush defense performance has a MV of 97.1% with a SD of +/- 50.2%, which translates to the Cornhuskers holding MSU to 89.4 to 280.4 yards rushing with the most likely result being 184.9 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 118.7 to 238.9 yards. The highest probability range is 178.8 to 184.7 yards rushing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 182 (+57/-63) yds.

MSU pass offense (No. 100) 188.8 yd/gm versus average opponent passing defense of 230.4 yd/gm
...versus ...
NEB pass defense (No. 34) 214.9 yd/gm versus average opponent passing offense of 232.9 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 4 of 9 games with one of those being less than 100 yards.
4 of Nebraska's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (1 for over 300 yards) and 1 opponent was held to under 100 yards passing.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 82.1% with a SD of +/- 30.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 110.8 to 241.9 yds passing with the most likely result being 176.4 yds.
The Cornhusker pass defense performance has a MV of 92.0% with a SD of +/- 27.4%, which translates to the Cornhuskers holding MSU to 122.0 to 225.4 yds passing with the most likely result being 173.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 122.0 to 225.4 yards. The highest probability range is 173.7 to 176.4 yards passing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 175 (+50/-53) yds.

MSU scoring offense (No. 58) 29.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.9 pt/gm
...versus ...
NEB scoring defense (No. 37) 22.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.5 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 3 games.
NEB has held opponents to 20 points or less in 5 games (1 less than 10 pts) and has given up more than 40 points just once.

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 105.3% with a SD of +/- 55.0%, which translates to scoring between 11.5 to 36.6 pts versus the Cornhuskers with the most likely result being 24.0 pts.
The Cornhusker scoring defense performance has a MV of 82.2% with a SD of +/- 24.8%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 17.1 and 31.9 pts with the most likely outcome being 24.5 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 17.1 to 31.9 points. The highest probability range is 24.0 to 24.5 points.

Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+8/-7) pts.

The win loss percentage of Nebraska's opponents on the season is 0.4699 (including a 6-4 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4524 (including a 8-2 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MSU 24 at NEB 14
(1st sigma range: MSU 17-32 at NEB 9-19)

Min/Max extremes:
MSU 17 at NEB 19
MSU 32 at NEB 9

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