MICHIGAN'S KARMA PAYBACK

What is Karma?

A person's actions deciding their fate in the future. Cause and effect. A fate that ultimately balances success and failure.

UM's Karmic Debt

Even prior to the founding of the State Agricultural College of the State of Michigan, the UM arrogance was in full force. When the Michigan Legislature moved UM (then Catholepistemiad, a Jesuit college) to Ann Arbor in the year Michigan became a state, the Legislature gave UM a charter that included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, mechanics, and a host of other educational programs that would benefit the people of Michigan. UM ignored those common pursuits and, instead, robed itself in an arrogant, elitist attitude that it would be the "Harvard of the West." The reneging of the charter led to the founding of what is now Michigan State University. UM endeavored to keep MSU from being founded.

Ever since its founding in 1855, MSU has suffered the arrogance and nefarious actions by UM, including attempts to steal its Land Grant money, its forestry program, its engineering program, and repeated moves to keep MSU out of the B1G Ten Conference.

There is a lot more, but that will be an article for another day. This is about football.

Flashback to November 3, 2007, East Lansing. It's Coach Dantonio's first game versus UM. It's midway through the 4th period. Michigan State had rallied from a 0-14 halftime deficit to take a 24-14 lead. Chad Henne went down with a twisted ankle. Ryan Mallet came in, botched the snap which bounced once right into the hands of Mike Hart who eeked out an 18 yard 1st down.

Michigan came back to win 28-24. A lucky bounce put the ball into a Wolverine's hands. It could have gone differently, but it counts all the same.

On national TV, post game, Mark Hart (the beneficiary of the bounce) inferred that Michigan had just been playing with the Spartans like an older sibling might do.

“I thought it was funny. They got excited. It’s good. Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you’re playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him.”

Watch Hart's shifty eyes. He knew at the time it was wrong, classless, unsportsmanlike, and arrogant.

• The school, the athletic department and the coaching staff all did and said nothing about it.
• Current and former players, some in the NFL, use it frequently with glee.
• The media embraced it.
• Going into the 2013 UM-MSU game, ABC announced the upcoming program as "Michigan versus Little Brother Michigan State."
• The expression popped up during the B1G Ten Championship game and again in the Rose Bowl by the commentators.

For 2911 days and counting, Spartans have daily suffered the Mike Hart Insult.

UM's Karmic Payback

• Coaching carousel.
• Lloyd Carr was ushered out.
• Rich Rodriguez was brought in and brought NCAA sanctions down on Michigan.
• Brady Hoke led the Ann Arbor squad to ever lower levels of success each year.
• During the first 6 years, UM scoring has dropped, reaching a 46 year low of 6 points in 2013.
• Lots of individual, team, and program records set -- all negative. -48 yards rushing is a UM school record.

2007: Coach Dantonio's response to Mike Hart's insult:

"It's not over. It'll never be over here. It's just starting."

Flash forward to October 17, 2015, Ann Arbor. It's Coach Harbaugh's first game versus MSU. There are 10 seconds on the clock. The score is 23-21. Michigan ball, 4th and 2 at the MSU 47. The punter fumbles the snap, gets it back and is hit. Jalen Watts-Jackson snags the airborne ball and rumbles 38 yards in for the score.

MSU came back to win 27-23. A lucky hit put the ball into a Spartan's hands. It could have gone differently, but it counts all the same. Jim Harbaugh, the "Messiah of Michigan Football," became the 7th UM coach (67 years) to lose his first game against MSU. Coach Dantonio went to 7-2 versus UM.

The day before the 2015 game, Mike Hart stated that making his comments was a mistake. Even with that, he tries to put the blame on MSU.

"There was something that week he had read several Michigan State players say — he can’t specifically recall what it was — but it stuck in his head."

Karma

2007 Michigan comeback win 28-24.

"Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you're playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him."

2015 Michigan State comeback win 27-23.

"Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you're playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him."

After the game, I copied a post written by a UM fan, "East Arbor," on the M-Live message boards (10/21/15).

"This is the Mike Hart curse at work. You would think that after years of annual bluster, unfounded arrogance, planting spikes, and repeated losses stretching over the better part of a decade, that the program and fan base would reflect on how foolish these sophomoric pregame antics are perceived by the prevailing opponent. But that's not likely to change - perhaps the theory is to keep it up and by the law of averages, at some point there will be a victory for the Champs of the World, at which point a decade's worth of blueballs bravado can finally be spurted into Sparty's face. But by that time, it will be nothing more than an aberration rather than some sort of kingly proclamation of elite status."

There are a few Wolverines that get it. Maybe when a tens of thousands get it Karma will get back in balance. Until then...

It's just starting.

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THE ANATOMY OF RANGERS: MISSION 4:10 AND THE "JALEN BREAK" TD

The whiner chUMps have posted time and again that had O'Neill caught the snap he definitely would have gotten the punt off.
They are wrong. He might have. But the way the punt block defense was schemed and executed and the way the UM punt protection broke down, the odds are very, very good that it would have been blocked.

Traditional punters take 2 seconds to kick.
The snap takes 1 second.
Step once and kick takes 1 second.
A frame-by-frame viewing of one of the MSU punts confirms this.

The Australian "Rugby" punt takes 3 seconds.
The snap takes 1 second.
Move 3 steps (nearly 3 yards) to the right and kick takes 2 seconds.
The up backs also shift, but with their backs to the punter.
A frame-by-frame viewing of the O'Neill 80 yard (50 yards plus roll/bounce) confirms this.
As a footnote, UM was lucky that punt was not blocked. MSU had 4 rushers past the Up Back protection at the time of the kick. A 5th Spartan rusher was closing in.

What follows is the anatomy of the "Jalen Break" aka Rangers: Mission 4:10.
Again, this is from frame-by-frame viewing.
Since not all jersey numbers were clearly visible, the description omits them all.
Left and right are based on the punter's position and facing at the snap.
In the graphic, the X is the approximate position the Punter would have gone to to make his Australian punt. It is about 3 yards to the right of his starting position.

At 10 seconds remaining...
UM
5 Blockers (offensive linemen) on the line. The long snapper is B3.
3 Up backs (protection) 8 yards back.
Punter is 16 yards back at the 37.
Gunner G1 on far left undefended.
Gunner G2 on far right facing a jammer.

MSU
Rushers R1, R2, and R3 unopposed on left.
a wall of of 7 Rushers opposing the Bs 2, 3, 4, and 5. B1 unopposed.
R5 (gap), R7 (gap), and R10 (right) unopposed.
Jammer opposed G2.

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At 9 seconds remaining...
Up back protection was shifting to the right.
7 Rushers were clear of the line with 2 about to engage the Up backs, 4 about to flank the protection on the left and 1 beginning to flank the protection on the right.
2 Rushers were through the line with 1 heading to the take on the U2 (middle) and the other clear to flank the protection.
1 Blocker was down.
2 Blockers were engaged in blocking R4.
1 Blocker had transition to Gunner 3.
1 Blocker had been passed by a rusher and was effective out of play.
Gunner1 is headed down the field.
Gunner 2 is headed down the field being shadowed by the Jammer.
Ball bounced off Punter's hands.

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The ball hits the ground in 2 yards in front of and slightly to the right of the Punter.
The Punter overshot the ball, turned to his left 180 degrees and stooped down to pick it up.
It is unlikely he saw his protection engaged.
It is unlikely he saw the 2 rushers that were moving unopposed to right flank the protection.
He continued his turn to his left.
His attention remained on the ball.
It is unlikely he saw the 4 unopposed rushers left flanking the protection.

At 8 seconds to go...
The punter, now at the 39, continued his turn (270 degrees at this point) to start his move to the right (now his left).
2 more Bs became Gunners having released their blocks on Rushers.
1 B is still down.
1 Rusher is in the middle but not engaged with the Us.
1 B was moving back towards the Punter but lagging the Rushers.
U1 on the left was overwhelmed. 5 Rushers passed the protection on the left.
U2 in the middle engaged a Rusher, turned him and pushed him towards the sideline past U3 (on the right) thus opening the middle of the wall through which 3 Rushers ran unimpeded.
U3 on the right stuttered not knowing who to block and never made a block at allowing all 3 Rushers go by unimpeded right up the middle.
At this point there are 8 Rushers within 5 yards of the Punter and only one of them was being blocked. 2 Rushers were within 1 yard of the Punter. 5 Rushers are between the Up backs and the Punter.

At 7 seconds to go...
Punter, now at the 40 was hit, ball flies out...
Punter was closely encircled by 7 Rushers, none further than a yard away.
The Rusher that made the hit is down.
At the moment he was hit there were 2 Rushers 4 yards directly in front of the place the Punter normally would have kicked from.
The Punter, when hit, was 1 step from his kick spot X but 3 yards closer to the line of scrimmage.
Jalen picks the ball out of the air.

At 2 seconds to go...
Jalen was downfield nearing the goal line.
8 Spartans versus 3 Wolverines.

At 0 seconds to go...Touchdown.
End of game.

The alternate reality scenario - the Punter does not bobble the snap.
Situation at 9 seconds is still in effect.
Punter turns to make his 3 steps/yards to the right. 3 quick steps, not running. 2 seconds.

U1 on the left is overwhelmed. 5 Rushers pass the protection on the left, moving at speed. 40 yards in 5 seconds from a standstill. 8 yards in less that 1 second.
U2 in the middle engages a Rusher, turns him and pushes him towards the sideline past U3 (on the right) thus opening the middle of the wall.
U3 on the right stutters not knowing who to block and never makes a block.

The middle of the wall is wide open allowing 3 Rushers go by unimpeded right up the middle to the very spot the punter would have kicked from. 40 yards in 5 seconds from a standstill. 8 yards in less than 1 second. It is probable they would have arrived before the punter. The rushers arrive at the kick spot while the clock still shows 7 seconds.

Punter reaches his kick spot and 3 Spartan rushers arrive head-on at the same time with 4 more arriving in front of him coming from the left.
Punter holds the ball and is tackled or, more like, tries to kick and the kick blocked.
If tackled, MSU ball on the 37 with 6 seconds.
If blocked, MSU had the players in position to scoop and run.
But it is highly improbable that the Punter gets the kick off, not with 7+ rushers in his face.

Bottom line:
The UM punt scheme was not up to handling the MSU punt block 11 scheme.
The UM special teams punt execution was horrible, especially the UB protection.

Questions?

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DANTONIO OUT-COACHED HARBAUGH

Rangers: Mission 4:10

10 seconds on the clock. Michigan with the ball on the Spartan 47, 4th and 2.

Time outs were called. The situation was discussed.

First, Cook in the 4th was 4 of 14 with 2 sacks in the 4th. Not good.

Second, neither team had much success running the ball. For the game, UM: 1.9 yds/carry. MSU: 1.8 yds/carry.

Then there was that 74 yard pass from Cook to Pendleton that might have weighed on Harbaugh's psyche.

To hear Harbaugh speak after the game, he was also concerned about possible penalties. Is it possible he recognized the number of times Lewis committed PIs on Burbridge that were not called? Maybe. Maybe not.

Fumbles could not have been a concern. Up to 59:50, UM had just one fumble on a kick-off return.

Harbaugh also would not have been concerned about an MSU field goal. After all, Coach Dantonio twice chose to go for it on 4th down rather than try the field goal. Message to Harbaugh, the Spartan kicking is not clicking. One has to wonder how much of that was deception.The failed 4th downs were at the UM 28 (1Q)  and at the UM 32 (4Q).

Last factor: O'Neill had made that 80 yard punt. It was a bit over 40 yards in the air and rolled the rest of the way. His other punts were 30, 32, 41, 37, 44, and 48.

Decision time.

Harbaugh's choices:

[1] Throw the ball.
Maybe pick up the 1st down, maybe not. The UM passing game was not doing very well, but in the 4th, Rudock was 4 of 9 with 1 sack. Incomplete and MSU gets the ball at the 47 with maybe 7 seconds left. Interception? Who knows.
Remember, time management. Remember, incomplete passes stop the clock.
Net result Hail Mary with very little time left, but the clock does not start until the snap.
It seems Harbaugh had little faith in the UM offense, especially Rudock, who was really in his first high-stakes, big-time game.

[2] Run the ball.
Either (A) to burn time or (B) to try to get the 1st down.
The running game both ways was non-existent, so the burning the clock approach would have been better than going for the 1st down. Remember, time management. Remember, only out of bounds stops the clock. Keep it in-bounds and the clock stops long enough to set the chains, then it starts again.
It seems Harbaugh had little faith in the UM offense, especially Smith, who was only 2.4 yards/carry with a long of 8 yards.

[3] Punt.
This was his choice. Punt. He set gunners. Why? He was trying to back MSU up to the goal line hoping for a 1st and 99 situation. Harbaugh did not seem to notice there was no return man for MSU. If he did, he thought it was to his benefit in pinning the Spartans at the 1, or at least inside the 10.

Time outs were called. The situation was discussed.

On 2 prior UM punts, the snap was not good and O'Neill had to take an extra half second to recover to make the punt.
On 1 prior UM punt, there was a gap coverage let down.
O'Neill was from Australian football and his punt takes a second or 2 longer than the standard US punt. This was his first high-stakes, big-time game.

Decision time.

Dantonio made his decision without deliberation. Rangers: Mission 4:10, otherwise known as Block 11. The Spartans lined up with a blitzkrieg rush planned.

Cook was on the sideline bemoaning his failure to Coach Salem. Coach Salem turned to him and said, "They will block the punt." Good call.

ESPN gave MSU a 0.2% chance of winning at that point. I gave the Spartans a 80% chance of blocking the punt.

Rangers: Mission 4:10

Ball snapped. Snap was bad. O'Neill dropped the ball and roughing the kicker rules were no longer in effect. O'Neill picked it up.

UM ended up blocking 11 rushers with 6 people. The UM gunners ran down field away from the play.

The Spartans hit O-Neill, the ball came loose, and Jalen Watts-Jackson was immortalized and hospitalized.

Some of the media (CBS, ESPN) call this "Gift 6." NFL.com called it "Quick 6." A Spartan fan called it "Jalen Break." All too much we hear it as the "Bobble in the Big House" or the "Miracle at Michigan."

Funny thing, it was the 2nd such TD on a blown punt of the day. Rutgers got one first.

Rangers: Mission 4:10 was not a miracle.

It was not a gift.
It was not luck.
It was an excellent coaching call.
It was a well executed punt block.
It was Coach Dantonio out coaching Harbaugh.

Just like he did the whole game, but that is the subject of another write-up.

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SPARTANS VERSUS WOLVERINES: PRE-GAME ASSESSMENT by MSUSpartan76

Can the Spartans beat the Wolverines?

If anyone knows anything about college football it is that any given team on any given field on any given day can beat any other team. There are three story lines to watch in this game.

No. 1. Special teams. In the past six games it has been green Kryptonite for the Spartans. 60 miles to the south, special teams, while not special, have done more than an adequate job. While the missed FGs are unscored points, and the KO return melt-downs are bad, the real story will be field position. If Jake Hartbarger is 100%, the field position edge goes to MSU. HIs leg makes up for a lot of punt return yardage. If Delton Williams is 100% and put on the returns, that, too, could be more than just an equalizer.

Advantage: UM

No. 2. UoM offense versus MSU defense. Coach Harbaugh has put in place a power-run system where multiple RB/TE combinations get into the mix. This creates strength at the point of attack and, so far, has been successful. It is similar to the wishbone (more than the counter trey) in that regard, but the idea of adding strength at the point of attack is not new. The Spartan LBs will watch the film. They will know their assignments. The fun part will be seeing which side executes and if Jake Rudock is forced to throw more often than he should. On the other hand, it is possible that Coach Harbaugh decides to test the "walking wounded" secondary MSU will put on the field. UM has a good receiver or two and if Jake Rudock can put the ball out those kids can catch it. While Coach Harbaugh might want to test the Spartan secondary, he does so by putting his snap caller at risk. Those Spartan Dawgs will get him more than once.

Edge: MSU

No. 3. MSU offense versus UoM "elite" defense. Elite - that's my old lady's corset cover. No! Good, yes. This should be as clear as a button hook in the well water; UM defense has done the job. Versus lesser competition? Yes. Versus mediocre offenses? Yes. Now they will get a chance to test their mettle against a worthy opponent. MSU O-line has not been creating vacuous gaps on every snap. The RB up the middle is not good for three yards and a cloud of dust. There have been some big plays, sure. But the grind it up the middle approach has not worked well. UM has stopped the run versus their slate of opponents. So the middle is a UM lock. The edges? That will be fun to watch. Then there is the passing attack. Cook will steadily get chunks of yards through the air, but without the running attack, UM will have to adjust and it will become a contest of wills.

Edge: Even

By the way, if history tells us anything, there is no such thing as a home field advantage in this rivalry. What should the real point spread be? Ignore Vegas. Trust me. Going into this game, the records, the rankings, everything goes out the window. On any given day......

The real point spread in this game is zero.

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