MICHIGAN'S KARMA PAYBACK

What is Karma?

A person's actions deciding their fate in the future. Cause and effect. A fate that ultimately balances success and failure.

UM's Karmic Debt

Even prior to the founding of the State Agricultural College of the State of Michigan, the UM arrogance was in full force. When the Michigan Legislature moved UM (then Catholepistemiad, a Jesuit college) to Ann Arbor in the year Michigan became a state, the Legislature gave UM a charter that included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, mechanics, and a host of other educational programs that would benefit the people of Michigan. UM ignored those common pursuits and, instead, robed itself in an arrogant, elitist attitude that it would be the "Harvard of the West." The reneging of the charter led to the founding of what is now Michigan State University. UM endeavored to keep MSU from being founded.

Ever since its founding in 1855, MSU has suffered the arrogance and nefarious actions by UM, including attempts to steal its Land Grant money, its forestry program, its engineering program, and repeated moves to keep MSU out of the B1G Ten Conference.

There is a lot more, but that will be an article for another day. This is about football.

Flashback to November 3, 2007, East Lansing. It's Coach Dantonio's first game versus UM. It's midway through the 4th period. Michigan State had rallied from a 0-14 halftime deficit to take a 24-14 lead. Chad Henne went down with a twisted ankle. Ryan Mallet came in, botched the snap which bounced once right into the hands of Mike Hart who eeked out an 18 yard 1st down.

Michigan came back to win 28-24. A lucky bounce put the ball into a Wolverine's hands. It could have gone differently, but it counts all the same.

On national TV, post game, Mark Hart (the beneficiary of the bounce) inferred that Michigan had just been playing with the Spartans like an older sibling might do.

“I thought it was funny. They got excited. It’s good. Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you’re playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him.”

Watch Hart's shifty eyes. He knew at the time it was wrong, classless, unsportsmanlike, and arrogant.

• The school, the athletic department and the coaching staff all did and said nothing about it.
• Current and former players, some in the NFL, use it frequently with glee.
• The media embraced it.
• Going into the 2013 UM-MSU game, ABC announced the upcoming program as "Michigan versus Little Brother Michigan State."
• The expression popped up during the B1G Ten Championship game and again in the Rose Bowl by the commentators.

For 2911 days and counting, Spartans have daily suffered the Mike Hart Insult.

UM's Karmic Payback

• Coaching carousel.
• Lloyd Carr was ushered out.
• Rich Rodriguez was brought in and brought NCAA sanctions down on Michigan.
• Brady Hoke led the Ann Arbor squad to ever lower levels of success each year.
• During the first 6 years, UM scoring has dropped, reaching a 46 year low of 6 points in 2013.
• Lots of individual, team, and program records set -- all negative. -48 yards rushing is a UM school record.

2007: Coach Dantonio's response to Mike Hart's insult:

"It's not over. It'll never be over here. It's just starting."

Flash forward to October 17, 2015, Ann Arbor. It's Coach Harbaugh's first game versus MSU. There are 10 seconds on the clock. The score is 23-21. Michigan ball, 4th and 2 at the MSU 47. The punter fumbles the snap, gets it back and is hit. Jalen Watts-Jackson snags the airborne ball and rumbles 38 yards in for the score.

MSU came back to win 27-23. A lucky hit put the ball into a Spartan's hands. It could have gone differently, but it counts all the same. Jim Harbaugh, the "Messiah of Michigan Football," became the 7th UM coach (67 years) to lose his first game against MSU. Coach Dantonio went to 7-2 versus UM.

The day before the 2015 game, Mike Hart stated that making his comments was a mistake. Even with that, he tries to put the blame on MSU.

"There was something that week he had read several Michigan State players say — he can’t specifically recall what it was — but it stuck in his head."

Karma

2007 Michigan comeback win 28-24.

"Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you're playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him."

2015 Michigan State comeback win 27-23.

"Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you're playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him."

After the game, I copied a post written by a UM fan, "East Arbor," on the M-Live message boards (10/21/15).

"This is the Mike Hart curse at work. You would think that after years of annual bluster, unfounded arrogance, planting spikes, and repeated losses stretching over the better part of a decade, that the program and fan base would reflect on how foolish these sophomoric pregame antics are perceived by the prevailing opponent. But that's not likely to change - perhaps the theory is to keep it up and by the law of averages, at some point there will be a victory for the Champs of the World, at which point a decade's worth of blueballs bravado can finally be spurted into Sparty's face. But by that time, it will be nothing more than an aberration rather than some sort of kingly proclamation of elite status."

There are a few Wolverines that get it. Maybe when a tens of thousands get it Karma will get back in balance. Until then...

It's just starting.

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DANTONIO OUT-COACHED HARBAUGH

Rangers: Mission 4:10

10 seconds on the clock. Michigan with the ball on the Spartan 47, 4th and 2.

Time outs were called. The situation was discussed.

First, Cook in the 4th was 4 of 14 with 2 sacks in the 4th. Not good.

Second, neither team had much success running the ball. For the game, UM: 1.9 yds/carry. MSU: 1.8 yds/carry.

Then there was that 74 yard pass from Cook to Pendleton that might have weighed on Harbaugh's psyche.

To hear Harbaugh speak after the game, he was also concerned about possible penalties. Is it possible he recognized the number of times Lewis committed PIs on Burbridge that were not called? Maybe. Maybe not.

Fumbles could not have been a concern. Up to 59:50, UM had just one fumble on a kick-off return.

Harbaugh also would not have been concerned about an MSU field goal. After all, Coach Dantonio twice chose to go for it on 4th down rather than try the field goal. Message to Harbaugh, the Spartan kicking is not clicking. One has to wonder how much of that was deception.The failed 4th downs were at the UM 28 (1Q)  and at the UM 32 (4Q).

Last factor: O'Neill had made that 80 yard punt. It was a bit over 40 yards in the air and rolled the rest of the way. His other punts were 30, 32, 41, 37, 44, and 48.

Decision time.

Harbaugh's choices:

[1] Throw the ball.
Maybe pick up the 1st down, maybe not. The UM passing game was not doing very well, but in the 4th, Rudock was 4 of 9 with 1 sack. Incomplete and MSU gets the ball at the 47 with maybe 7 seconds left. Interception? Who knows.
Remember, time management. Remember, incomplete passes stop the clock.
Net result Hail Mary with very little time left, but the clock does not start until the snap.
It seems Harbaugh had little faith in the UM offense, especially Rudock, who was really in his first high-stakes, big-time game.

[2] Run the ball.
Either (A) to burn time or (B) to try to get the 1st down.
The running game both ways was non-existent, so the burning the clock approach would have been better than going for the 1st down. Remember, time management. Remember, only out of bounds stops the clock. Keep it in-bounds and the clock stops long enough to set the chains, then it starts again.
It seems Harbaugh had little faith in the UM offense, especially Smith, who was only 2.4 yards/carry with a long of 8 yards.

[3] Punt.
This was his choice. Punt. He set gunners. Why? He was trying to back MSU up to the goal line hoping for a 1st and 99 situation. Harbaugh did not seem to notice there was no return man for MSU. If he did, he thought it was to his benefit in pinning the Spartans at the 1, or at least inside the 10.

Time outs were called. The situation was discussed.

On 2 prior UM punts, the snap was not good and O'Neill had to take an extra half second to recover to make the punt.
On 1 prior UM punt, there was a gap coverage let down.
O'Neill was from Australian football and his punt takes a second or 2 longer than the standard US punt. This was his first high-stakes, big-time game.

Decision time.

Dantonio made his decision without deliberation. Rangers: Mission 4:10, otherwise known as Block 11. The Spartans lined up with a blitzkrieg rush planned.

Cook was on the sideline bemoaning his failure to Coach Salem. Coach Salem turned to him and said, "They will block the punt." Good call.

ESPN gave MSU a 0.2% chance of winning at that point. I gave the Spartans a 80% chance of blocking the punt.

Rangers: Mission 4:10

Ball snapped. Snap was bad. O'Neill dropped the ball and roughing the kicker rules were no longer in effect. O'Neill picked it up.

UM ended up blocking 11 rushers with 6 people. The UM gunners ran down field away from the play.

The Spartans hit O-Neill, the ball came loose, and Jalen Watts-Jackson was immortalized and hospitalized.

Some of the media (CBS, ESPN) call this "Gift 6." NFL.com called it "Quick 6." A Spartan fan called it "Jalen Break." All too much we hear it as the "Bobble in the Big House" or the "Miracle at Michigan."

Funny thing, it was the 2nd such TD on a blown punt of the day. Rutgers got one first.

Rangers: Mission 4:10 was not a miracle.

It was not a gift.
It was not luck.
It was an excellent coaching call.
It was a well executed punt block.
It was Coach Dantonio out coaching Harbaugh.

Just like he did the whole game, but that is the subject of another write-up.

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SPARTANS VERSUS WOLVERINES: PRE-GAME ASSESSMENT by MSUSpartan76

Can the Spartans beat the Wolverines?

If anyone knows anything about college football it is that any given team on any given field on any given day can beat any other team. There are three story lines to watch in this game.

No. 1. Special teams. In the past six games it has been green Kryptonite for the Spartans. 60 miles to the south, special teams, while not special, have done more than an adequate job. While the missed FGs are unscored points, and the KO return melt-downs are bad, the real story will be field position. If Jake Hartbarger is 100%, the field position edge goes to MSU. HIs leg makes up for a lot of punt return yardage. If Delton Williams is 100% and put on the returns, that, too, could be more than just an equalizer.

Advantage: UM

No. 2. UoM offense versus MSU defense. Coach Harbaugh has put in place a power-run system where multiple RB/TE combinations get into the mix. This creates strength at the point of attack and, so far, has been successful. It is similar to the wishbone (more than the counter trey) in that regard, but the idea of adding strength at the point of attack is not new. The Spartan LBs will watch the film. They will know their assignments. The fun part will be seeing which side executes and if Jake Rudock is forced to throw more often than he should. On the other hand, it is possible that Coach Harbaugh decides to test the "walking wounded" secondary MSU will put on the field. UM has a good receiver or two and if Jake Rudock can put the ball out those kids can catch it. While Coach Harbaugh might want to test the Spartan secondary, he does so by putting his snap caller at risk. Those Spartan Dawgs will get him more than once.

Edge: MSU

No. 3. MSU offense versus UoM "elite" defense. Elite - that's my old lady's corset cover. No! Good, yes. This should be as clear as a button hook in the well water; UM defense has done the job. Versus lesser competition? Yes. Versus mediocre offenses? Yes. Now they will get a chance to test their mettle against a worthy opponent. MSU O-line has not been creating vacuous gaps on every snap. The RB up the middle is not good for three yards and a cloud of dust. There have been some big plays, sure. But the grind it up the middle approach has not worked well. UM has stopped the run versus their slate of opponents. So the middle is a UM lock. The edges? That will be fun to watch. Then there is the passing attack. Cook will steadily get chunks of yards through the air, but without the running attack, UM will have to adjust and it will become a contest of wills.

Edge: Even

By the way, if history tells us anything, there is no such thing as a home field advantage in this rivalry. What should the real point spread be? Ignore Vegas. Trust me. Going into this game, the records, the rankings, everything goes out the window. On any given day......

The real point spread in this game is zero.

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF UolM RUNNING UP THE SCORE

Having read the recent article, HERE'S PROOF THAT UM "RAN UP THE SCORE" AGAINST MSU IN 2002 FOOTBALL GAME, it seemed that a lot was left out.

Those chUMps are whining about a single TD. Yet those obsessive historians ignore their sordid past.

Let's take a look. Just a sample, mind you, otherwise it would have to become a serial post.

The largest margin of victory of the Spartans over UolM was in 1967, a 34-0 shutout. Using 34 points as the marker, UolM has exceeded that margin of victory over the Spartans 12 times.

10/12/1898: 39-0
10/8/1902: 119-0
10/12/1907: 46-0
10/12/1912: 55-7
11/4/1922: 63-0
10/3/1925: 39-0
10/9/1926: 55-3
9/29/1945: 40-0
11/9/1946: 55-7
9/27/1947: 55-0
10/8/1983: 42-0
11/2/2002: 49-3

With the exception of the 1983 game, all of those were played in AA.

In 1902, MSU (Michigan Agricultural College) had a total enrollment of 689 students, which included 158 women. In 1902, UolM had a total enrollment of 3792 students. No gender deliniation provided in the records.

Compare this to 2007, when UolM had 41,042 students versus Appalachian State with 13,997 students. That was a D-IA versus D-IAA with a student body ratio of greater than 3:1. In 1902, the student body ratio was about 5:1, which makes it more of a D-I versus D-III match.

So, go back to the 1902 score and decide whether or not UolM ran up the score. One other datum to consider when viewing that score - UolM was recruiting, MAC was not. UolM was the equivalent of a semi-pro team and MAC was barely out of the club sport category.

Fast forward to 1937, when NCAA reclassified MSC as a Major football program. MSC had a total enrollment of 1203 students, which included 503 women. UolM had a total enrollment of 11,777 students, which included 3514 women. That is almost a 10:1 ratio (> 11:1 male students).

Scrolling forward, MSU enrollment had achieved parity with UolM prior to the 1978 NCAA split of Division I into I-A and I-AA.

1945: UolM 15,437 MSC  4,308
1954: UolM 30,570 MSU 16,234
1964: UolM 37,945 MSU 31,268
1974: UolM 42,495 MSU 43,459
1984: UolM 34,347 MSU 40,272
1994: UolM 36,408 MSU 40,254
2004: UolM 39,533 MSU 44,836
2014: UolM 41,924 MSU 50,085
(Main campus enrollment only, Fall enrollment)

Of the 12 games played where UolM ran up the score, 10 of them happened when they were beating up on a team from a much smaller school. They did this all the time.

Year Record PF-PA
1901 11-0-0 550-0
1902 11-0-0 664-12
1903 11-0-1 565-6
1904 10-0-0 567-22
1905 12-1-0 495-2

Who did they play?

1901
Albion (MI) in AA
Case Institute of Technology (OH) in AA
Indiana in AA
Northwestern (IL) in AA
Buffalo (NY) in AA
Carlisle Indian School (PA) in Detroit
Ohio St. in Columbus
Chicago (IL) in AA
Beloit (WI) in AA
Iowa in Chicago
Stanford (CA) in Pasadena

1902
Albion (MI) in AA
Case Institute of Technology (OH) in AA
Michigan St. in AA
Indiana in AA
Notre Dame (IN) in Toledo
Ohio St. in AA
Wisconsin in Chicago
Iowa in AA
Chicago (IL) in Chicago
Oberlin (OH) in AA
Minnesota in AA

1903
Case Institute of Technology (OH) in AA
Albion (MI) in AA
Beloit (WI) in AA
Ohio Northern in AA
Indiana in AA
Ferris St. (MI) in AA
Drake (IA) in AA
Minnesota in Minneapolis
Ohio St. in AA
Wisconsin in AA
Oberlin (OH) in AA
Chicago (IL) in Chicago

1904
Case Institute of Technology (OH) in AA
Ohio Northern in AA
Kalamazoo (MI) in AA
Physicians & Surgeons (IL) in AA
Ohio St. in Columbus
American Medical (IL) in AA
West Virginia in AA
Wisconsin in Madison
Drake (IA) in AA
Chicago (IL) in AA

1905
Ohio Wesleyan in AA
Kalamazoo (MI) in AA
Case Institute of Technology (OH) in AA
Ohio Northern in AA
Vanderbilt (TN) in AA
Nebraska in AA
Albion (MI) in AA
Drake (IA) in AA
Illinois in Champaign
Ohio St. in AA
Wisconsin in AA
Oberlin (OH) in AA
Chicago (IL) in Chicago

45 home games, 4 neutral sites, 8 away games

Homefield advantage was very real in those days. Keep in mind, the Model T production started in 1908. The Wright Brothers went to Kitty Hawk in 1903. The first practical airplane was flown in 1909. The modern toilet was designed in 1906. A team typically travelled by train, arriving in time to walk to the stadium carrying their gear just in time for the game. Trains of that age typically ran at 20-30 mph, so a team would have to leave several hours to arrive in time, sometimes travelling overnight and sleeping on the train. Food service on trains was non-existent.

(We won't even get into whether the thugs recruited by UolM actually enrolled.) FYI, in 1906, UolM was censored by the Western Conference (aka Big Ten) for failure to comply with conference recruiting regulations.and members were not allowed to schedule games. UolM left the conference in 1907 and was readmitted after 10 seasons.

So 80% of those games were at home and more than half were versus non-peer opponents. Go back and look at the scores. Did UolM run up the scores on any of those teams?

Perhaps a second look at the recent MSU TD will be seen in a slightly different light.

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The Dantonio Prophesies

Flashback to November 3, 2007, East Lansing.
It's midway through the 4th period. Michigan State had rallied from a 0-14 halftime deficit to take a 24-14 lead. Chad Henne went down with a twisted ankle. Ryan Mallet came in, botched the snap which bounced once right into the hands of Mike Hart who eeked out a 1st down. Momentum shifted. Michigan took the ball down the field and scored. Michigan State punted on the next possession, a 3 and out. Michigan drove down the field and scored to take a 28-24 lead. Michigan State drove to the Michigan 42 and turned the ball over on downs. All in all a good game with lots of on the field drama. A lucky bounce of the ball, which could have gone either way, decided the game.

After the game, Mark Hart on national TV, inferred that Michigan had just been playing with the Spartans like an older sibling might do.

“I thought it was funny. They got excited. It’s good. Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you’re playing basketball and you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him.”

Watch the video. Watch his shifty eyes. He knew exactly what he was doing and knew it was wrong. It was classless. It was unsportsman like. Rivalry or not, one does not embarass or humiliate the team or person you just beat. His comments reek of arrogance.

What were the reactions to insult? The school? Crickets. Lloyd Carr and the UM coaching staff? More crickets. If there was anything said to Hart about it, it was kept quiet. The UM fans? They embraced it. Why, now, they had a new, creative insult! The media? They had a field day with it. Some prime examples: Going into the UM-MSU game last season, ABC announced it as "Michigan versus Little Brother Michigan State." The expression popped up during the B1G Ten Championship game and again in the Rose Bowl by the commentators. The UM players? Over the past 7 years there have been numerous uses by them.

On the Spartan side, when asked about it, Coach Dantonio responded with 2 memorable quotes.

"The pride comes before the fall."
"It's not over. It will never be over here. It's just starting."

Pride:
People often do not understand that pride in the context of that paraphrased scripture quote is not a good thing. It is conceit, hubris, arrogance, or a lofty and arrogant assumption of superiority. The full verse from Proverbs 16:18: "Pride comes before destruction, and arrogance before the fall."

Dantonio's quoting that passage has proven to be a prophesy of Biblical proportions.

Lloyd Carr ended his coaching career. Rich Rodriguez was brought in and brought NCAA sanctions down on Michigan. Brady Hoke was brought in and with initial success using the Rodriguez team and playbook has led the Ann Arbor squad to lower levels of success each year. Lots of individual, team, and program records set -- all negative. Players have been arrested and convicted. Recruits are turning away. The current coach and athletic director are under fire. The students and fans are in revolt.

In fact, the Michigan football team record looks like Hart's little brother, "...you let him get the lead. Then you come back and take it from him."

3-8
5-7
7-6
11-2
8-5
7-6
3-4 (season in progress)

We have seen the UM arrogance for decades. In 1978, Darryl Rogers refered to UM as:

"Those arrogant asses in Ann Arbor."

Now we are seeing the fall. Starting after the Hart Insult, MSU has racked up a 5-1 record versus UM. The sole loss came as hundreds of thousands of UM fans held their breath for 2 minutes while their team made a last second field goal to win 12-10.

A digression:
Funny thing about the UM arrogance. I was at a sports bar watching the game. There were some 20 UM fans and me. When the field goal was made, they cried out, "Little Brother." So relieved were they that the Spartans hand not won a 5th in a row that they totally forgot it was the 900th program win. Think about that. It was more important to them to beat MSU than it was to set an all-time NCAA record.

During those 6 years, UM scoring has steadily dropped, reaching a 10 year low of 6 points (-48 yards rushing) last year.

Since Coach Dantonio arrived, it has started.
7-6
9-4
6-7
11-2
11-3
7-6
13-1
6-1 (season in progress)

7 consecutive bowls. 3-4 record.
Currently on a 3-game bowl winning streak
2 Division Championships
2 Conference Championships
1 Rose Bowl win
13-game conference winning streak

There's a lot more: Individual, team, and program records; vastly improved recruiting; ever increasing numbers of players starting in the NFL; and near-zero off-the field issues.

And...
This will be the 7th year since the infamous Hart made his disparaging remarks.

And 7 is a number of Biblical significance.

The pride comes before the fall.
It isn't over.
It's just starting.

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Countdown To Roses - MSU at Nebraska Post Game

Predictions were made based on statistical analysis in Countdown To Roses - MSU at Nebraska.

Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In Countdown, it was acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 182 (+57/-63) yds. Actual: 168
Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 175 (+50/-53) yds. Actual: 193
Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+8/-7) pts. Actual: 41

Prediction, Nebraska yards rushing: 71 (+15/-28) yards. Actual: 182
Prediction, Nebraska yards passing: 144 (+44/-43) yds. Actual: 210
Prediction, Nebraska scoring: 14 (+5/-5) pts. Actual: 28

Only 2 of 6 predictions were accurate.
Crow is pretty good barbecued with salsa and beer.

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Countdown To Roses - MSU at Nebraska

In Part 1, The Contenders, the current rankings and probable matchup in Indianapolis was discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they first have to go to Lincoln and come back with the win.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated. For example. Take 2 running backs. Both have an average of 3.0 yd/carry. One of them has 200 carries with runs ranging from -25 yards to +95 yards. The other has 120 carries with runs running from 2 yards to 6 yards. The averages listed on the "stats sheet" hides the consistency of the latter and the dynamics of the former.

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform at their season averages, with the possibility of a slightly lower score and (2) the Cornhusker offense will be slowed and the final score could be very close.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.

Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?

Michigan State at Nebraska

NEB rush offense (No. 14) 246.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 188.7 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 43.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 145.7 yd/gm

Nebraska has a better rush offense than any of the Spartan's prior opponents. The Cornhuskers have been held back in their last 3 games by Minnesota (189 yds), Northwestern (195 yds), and Michigan (128 yds). The Spartan Dawgs have held all of their opponents under 100 yds, and 7 of 9 to 50% or less of their season averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 34.8%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 1/3 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 38.8%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Nebraska to between -3.9% and 73.6% of their season average, which translates to -9.7 yds to 181.6 yds with the most likely result being 86.0 yds.

The Cornhusker rush offense performance has a MV of 129.2% with a SD of +/- 39.9%. The Cornhuskers versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 43.1 and 69.0 yds with the most likely result being 56.1 yds.
The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 43.1 to 69.0 yards. The highest probability range is 56.1 to 86.0 yards rushing.

Prediction, Nebraska yards rushing: 71 (+15/-28) yards.

NEB pass offense (No. 93) 199.2 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 231.6 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU pass defense (No. 3) 166.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 234.3 yd/gm

Only 2 of the Spartan's prior opponents have had more anemic passing attacks than Nebraska. Only 3 have eclipsed the 200 yard mark. The 9 Nebraska opponents, taken together, averaged 231.6 yards passing allowed over the season and (as a group) held the Cornhuskers to nearly 50 yd/gm less than their aggregate average.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 71.6% with a SD of +/- 24.6%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Cornhusker passing game to 93.6 to 191.6 yds with the most likely result being 142.6 yds.
The Cornhusker pass offense performance has a MV of 86.7% with a SD of +/- 26.1%, which translates to Nebraska likely to pass for between 101.2 and 188.2 yds with the most likely result being 144.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 101.2 to 188.2 yards. The highest probability range is 142.6 to 144.7 yards passing.

Prediction, Nebraska yards passing: 144 (+44/-43) yds.

NEB scoring offense (No. 28) 35.9 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 27.5 pt/gm
...versus ...
MSU scoring defense (No. 3) 11.6 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.2 pt/gm

Nebraska has scored 20 or more points in all games except the last game versus Michigan.
Michigan State had held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 40.6% with a SD of +/- 24.9%, which translates to Cornhusker scoring between 5.7 to 23.5 pts with the most likely result being 14.6 pts.
The Cornhusker scoring offense performance has a MV of 117.6% with a SD of +/- 43.0%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Cornhuskers to between 8.7 and 18.6 pts with the most likely outcome being 13.6 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 8.7 to 18.6 points. The highest probability range is 13.6 to 14.6 points.

Prediction, Nebraska scoring: 14 (+5/-5) pts.

MSU rush offense (No. 44) 190.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rushing defense of 178.7 yd/gm
...versus ...
NEB rush defense (No. 61) 160.0 yd/gm versus average opponent rushing offense of 153.4 yd/gm

6 of Nebraska's opponents have rushed for more yards than MSU has averaged on the season, but only 3 of those teams have higher season averages. 5 of 9 Nebraska opponents rushed for more than 200 yards in their games, but Nebraska has also held 3 opponents to under 100 yards. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 111.7% with a SD of +/- 37.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 118.7 to 238.9 yds rushing with the most likely result being 178.8 yds.
The Cornhusker rush defense performance has a MV of 97.1% with a SD of +/- 50.2%, which translates to the Cornhuskers holding MSU to 89.4 to 280.4 yards rushing with the most likely result being 184.9 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 118.7 to 238.9 yards. The highest probability range is 178.8 to 184.7 yards rushing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 182 (+57/-63) yds.

MSU pass offense (No. 100) 188.8 yd/gm versus average opponent passing defense of 230.4 yd/gm
...versus ...
NEB pass defense (No. 34) 214.9 yd/gm versus average opponent passing offense of 232.9 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 4 of 9 games with one of those being less than 100 yards.
4 of Nebraska's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (1 for over 300 yards) and 1 opponent was held to under 100 yards passing.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 82.1% with a SD of +/- 30.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 110.8 to 241.9 yds passing with the most likely result being 176.4 yds.
The Cornhusker pass defense performance has a MV of 92.0% with a SD of +/- 27.4%, which translates to the Cornhuskers holding MSU to 122.0 to 225.4 yds passing with the most likely result being 173.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 122.0 to 225.4 yards. The highest probability range is 173.7 to 176.4 yards passing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 175 (+50/-53) yds.

MSU scoring offense (No. 58) 29.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.9 pt/gm
...versus ...
NEB scoring defense (No. 37) 22.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.5 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 3 games.
NEB has held opponents to 20 points or less in 5 games (1 less than 10 pts) and has given up more than 40 points just once.

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 105.3% with a SD of +/- 55.0%, which translates to scoring between 11.5 to 36.6 pts versus the Cornhuskers with the most likely result being 24.0 pts.
The Cornhusker scoring defense performance has a MV of 82.2% with a SD of +/- 24.8%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 17.1 and 31.9 pts with the most likely outcome being 24.5 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 17.1 to 31.9 points. The highest probability range is 24.0 to 24.5 points.

Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+8/-7) pts.

The win loss percentage of Nebraska's opponents on the season is 0.4699 (including a 6-4 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4524 (including a 8-2 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MSU 24 at NEB 14
(1st sigma range: MSU 17-32 at NEB 9-19)

Min/Max extremes:
MSU 17 at NEB 19
MSU 32 at NEB 9

Post Game Comments Are Here.

Countdown To Roses - The Contenders

9 games in the books with 3 remaining. What does it look like in the B1G Ten race Indianapolis?

This is a part 1 of a multi-part, multi-week analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

LEADERS DIVISION
Ohio St.      9-0/5-0
Wisconsin     7-2/4-1
Penn St.      5-4/2-3
Indiana       4-5/2-3
Illinois      3-6/0-5
Purdue        1-8/0-5

LEGENDS DIVISION
Michigan St.  8-1/5-0
Nebraska      7-2/4-1
Minnesota     8-2/4-2
Iowa          6-4/3-3
Michigan      6-3/2-3
Northwestern  4-5/0-5

In the Leaders Division, OSU has the tiebreaker over Wisconsin. For Wisconsin to make the trip to Indianapolis, the Buckeyes have to lose 2 or more and the Badgers have to win out.
Ohio State faces Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. It is hard to find 2 losses in there.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.4815 (13-14).

Wisconsin faces Indiana, Minnesota, and Penn St. Minnesota is hanging on the fringe of this discussion and could very well be a spoiler for the Badger dream of a 3-peat.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6071 (17-11).
In the Legends Division, MSU has a 1 game lead, but plays Nebraska next. A Cornhusker win and the Spartans will be on the broken side of the tie-breaker with 2 games to go.
Michigan State faces Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota. None of those are certain wins for the Spartans.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6786 (19-9).

Nebraska faces Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. The Cornhuskers will know where they stand around 7:00 pm (EST), Nov. 16.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6786 (19-9).

Minnesota with 2 conference losses is on the outside looking in and looking for some serious help. With games versus Wisconsin and at Michigan St. is it even possible the Golden Gophers can run the table, which is exactly what they have to do to even have a chance to go to Lucas Oil Stadium. They do need help from MSU, which would have to also lose at Nebraska or at Northwestern for the Golden Gophers to get the 2nd needed tiebreaker and help from Nebraska (which beat Minnesota and holds the tiebreaker) would have to lose 2 more games.

In the parts that follow, statistical analysis techniques will be used to give insight into each team's performance and how they match up with the Spartans.

MSU at Nebraska
MSU at Northwestern
Minnesota vs MSU
Ohio State or Wisconsin vs MSU

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