Original Post:
AFTER "COMPLETION", ARE YOU REALLY READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?
Wow. What a strange college football off-season. In the past, there was a sense of unfinished business, the need to right the wrongs of the past season and even decades of MSU football (or chUMp mythology), the need to scratch and claw for progress - for that seat at the table, for respect. In the past, I eagerly awaited each ... Read More
It was not a strange off-season for me. The same old insults, derogatory comments, lack of respect for the program, and media flame fanning continued unabated. Almost everything I read had this team or that losing starters, but since they had high star count recruiting classes all would be well. MSU lost starters from a deep rotation and it was foredoomed they would become mediocre again. Same old disparagement towards the Spartans.
I was in E. Lansing for the Game of the Century. I was at MSU for Duffy's last season. I have been the loyal Spartan fan for all these decades, never once turning off a game or walking out on one. Regardless of how it went. I watched the Spartans play, watched the game dramas unfold, and when it was over, got ready for the next. What is different this year is the level of uncertainty is way down. The team is healthy, well rounded, and experienced. It will be a better team than last year. We can and should expect more success.
In the off season, I became more in tune with the nuances of recruiting, not less. I watched the spring game with great interest to see if I could spot an Achilles' heel. I watched and read all I could about the team and each time confidence grew.
When Coach Dantonio said, "Completion. Completion." he did not mean the job was done. He meant the goals set had been achieved. From there he has set new, loftier goals. "Why not us?" Why not, indeed. Completion of PHASE I. Yes. Now on to Phase II.
You left out part of the quote: "It's not over. It will never be over here." is always followed by "It's just starting." It's true. It's just starting. What is starting? Simple. The Phoenix of the lost Spartan dynasty. We need not go over history to see how the dynasty of the "Nation's Football Factory" crashed and burned. What we have now is ALL of the pieces in place to continue where it was left off 50 years ago. How can I state that so strongly? The culture has changed. 60 MINUTES OF NECESSARY TOUGHNESS. Sorry Coach Narduzzi, you had the right idea but you said it wrong.
That idea there could be a problem handling success is just another media attempt to fan the flames. The players have no problem handling success. Look at what those kids did during the off season. They raised the bar on strengh and conditioning. They went out and practice on their own more than any prior year. The Spartans know the way to handle success is with more success. And with that, continued success. It's not just 2013 that counts. Since Mark Dantonio arrived, MSU has broken and set dozens of records. There are more ahead of us, too.
If they lose, it will not be because of anything other than the other team beat them. Their psyche is fine. Excellent in fact.
My expectations, or more to the question of how the Spartans could exceed my expectations? My expectations are simple. The team will go into every game, be the best they can be, and give the 60 full minutes of necessary toughness.
What could get us into real bummer territory? The only bummer is if, for whatever reason, MSU no longer fields a team and that will never happen.
Yes. I most definitely am ready for some football.
Huzzah! It's just starting.
~ MSUspartan76
See '76's past posts on this site HERE
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Showing posts with label 2013 season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013 season. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
AFTER "COMPLETION", ARE YOU REALLY READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?
Wow. What a strange college football off-season. In the past, there was a sense of unfinished business, the need to right the wrongs of the past season and even decades of MSU football (or chUMp mythology), the need to scratch and claw for progress - for that seat at the table, for respect.
In the past, I eagerly awaited each verbal commitment from a recruit and kicked the dirt when programs from out of state or Ann Arbor scored on a kid "we" wanted. I would follow the National Signing Day (why is that capitalized nowadays?) as if it were a crystal ball into the future of the Spartan program. Every transfer, surgery, rehab, off-field transgression, or news of a kid being "a beast" meant something to me. Every negative or positive article about Spartans football or spring practice, and every reader comment, every inaccurate perception, every lie or painful truth increased or decreased the chances of getting more/better recruits - at least in my mind. It was dramatic, fun and maddening all at once. Then summer would arrive and I would long for fall to rush in, introducing a new Spartans football team and a new hope that all would righted "this year" with a magical season (which to me meant more/better recruits again). It was a vicious, seemingly never ending annual cycle.
Then, on January 1, 2014, at the culmination of 2013 football season, our coach, Mark Dantonio, uttered the words that crushed the head of that crazy, ongoing, MSU football fan grind - that grind which almost became my identity and was the very soul for thousands of Spartans fans. Coach D was asked what the Rose Bowl victory (and by default, the whole magical season) meant. His answer? "Completion. Completion." He said it twice as if to stomp on the head of the snake and then to grind it into the ground, leaving no doubt - that the evil annual ritual was dead.
Or does it only seem like that?
Or does it only seem like that?
This off season was different for me. I was not attached to every move, every development, verbal commitment, NSD, spring practice, the manufactured drama of summer news posts about "my" team or that other team. For the first time, I'm not really sure I'm ready for it to all start again. It has been so peaceful, so... complete. No longer does success at MSU seem like a temporary experience. No longer do Spartans need to put chUMps in their place when they rear their arrogant heads and say something stupid. They are already in their place. Even most chUMps are asking fellow chUMps to dUMp the Little Brother references (although we all know it will be quick to re-appear at the first opportunity). No longer does the perception of off-field issues plague the program like it does most every other program including the problems hitting the team down the road. Even if there is headline tomorrow about a stupid thing an MSU player did, it is undeniable that Coach Dantonio runs a tight ship. No longer do we squabble about where or IF the Spartans deserve to be ranked in the pre-season top 25. It's a "just win baby" world now. No longer do I have this drive to post my opinions on-line or even on my own blog. The team's success did all the talking that was necessary. We have experienced "completion". Or at least it feels like that in so many ways.
Was it just me or is this puzzling calm something others experienced too?
We all know the truth. MD prophesied, "It's not over. It will never be over here."
So, my personal psychoanalysis makes me wonder. How many other fans experienced what I have this off season? Is there a part of that "completion" feeling deep in the psyche of players and/or coaches? How will it effect performance? While the media builds it up, something about it seems conspired. There are a lot of teams with high expectations. They all can't get "there". How many times have we seen teams tabbed as one of the best teams ever - or best in the last decade lose a game or two - or three? How will the Spartans players and fans handle the first let down (if there is one) and the second or third? No one is tabbing MSU football as the best college football team in the past decade, yet it seems fans and media alike are forgetting that a two or three loss season may be just as likely - or even more likely - than a one loss or undefeated season. Is it totally outrageous to think that MSU could lose at Oregon and at Penn State in the last game of the year PLUS a game in between (Nebraska, UM, tOSU or a less likely suspect)? Some of the media are catching on to the potential big let down as described HERE, but they are a voice in the wilderness.
- So how has last year's success and the general health of the program affected your off-season psyche?
- What would the Spartans need to accomplish to EXCEED your expectations?
- What results would get us into real bummer territory?
- Are you really ready for some football?
- Check back with SpartanResource.com to read the reactions from M-Live frequent comment contributors ATownAndDown, MSUspartan76 and others.
See ATownAndDown's response HERE
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Monday, January 6, 2014
VIDEO - MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: Beyond the Rose Bowl, Part 2 and Video Highlights
ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Front-Burner was published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
2A. ATownAndDown Feature
2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature
Part 3. Rose Bowl Discussion
3A. Pre-Game Discusison
3B. The Game/Results - Beyond the Rose Bowl Part 1
3C. Beyond the Rose Bowl Part 2 (This Edition)
Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Note: This will be the final weekly Front Burner edition. Others will follow as new developments related tot the football team dictate.
First let's take a look at the Rose Bowl and celebration highlights.
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First let's take a look at the Rose Bowl and celebration highlights.
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1. MSU has finished as a finalist in high profile recruiting battles frequently in recent years. Should we expect to win those battles more regularly immediately, or will MSU need a validation season in 2014 before Dantonio lands more plan A recruits resulting in top 20 recruiting classes?
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Recruiting is improving. There won't be a sudden jump if you ask me. Coach D has already said the pitch is going to remain the same and that is going to turn off some recruits. There are many recruits that view college football as a transitional league and want to hear what a program and coach are going to do for them to get them to the NFL. That is not what Coach D will ever push. He is going to tell guys how its going to be and what is expected of them at MSU. Some recruits will be smart enough to see the results of having that lunchbox mentality (Coach D has put 24 players in the NFL and with guys like Dennard, Bullough, Lewis, Allen, Fou, etc. that list will grow longer soon) but others want to hear the coach tell them that getting them ready for the NFL is his goal. But you are already seeing bigger recruits looking a little harder at MSU and some of the prognosticators are shifting their speculations toward MSU because of that.
Recruiting is improving. There won't be a sudden jump if you ask me. Coach D has already said the pitch is going to remain the same and that is going to turn off some recruits. There are many recruits that view college football as a transitional league and want to hear what a program and coach are going to do for them to get them to the NFL. That is not what Coach D will ever push. He is going to tell guys how its going to be and what is expected of them at MSU. Some recruits will be smart enough to see the results of having that lunchbox mentality (Coach D has put 24 players in the NFL and with guys like Dennard, Bullough, Lewis, Allen, Fou, etc. that list will grow longer soon) but others want to hear the coach tell them that getting them ready for the NFL is his goal. But you are already seeing bigger recruits looking a little harder at MSU and some of the prognosticators are shifting their speculations toward MSU because of that.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Elsworth was a walk-on. How many star players has MSU produced from the ranks of the recruiting site 2-stars and unrated?
What we should expect is the MSU Spartan Football coaching staff to continue to stuff the roster with kids that fit the program, can be developed, who are willing to put in the work, who play as a team, and who never quit. We need and want those players that fit: Spartans Will!
We do not need chUMps as role models. We do not need to polish recruiting trophies. Those so-called recruiting "battles" are just hype created by the recruiting sites and spoon fed to the fans. MSU needs no validation. The only true validation comes with "Just Win."
Elsworth was a walk-on. How many star players has MSU produced from the ranks of the recruiting site 2-stars and unrated?
What we should expect is the MSU Spartan Football coaching staff to continue to stuff the roster with kids that fit the program, can be developed, who are willing to put in the work, who play as a team, and who never quit. We need and want those players that fit: Spartans Will!
We do not need chUMps as role models. We do not need to polish recruiting trophies. Those so-called recruiting "battles" are just hype created by the recruiting sites and spoon fed to the fans. MSU needs no validation. The only true validation comes with "Just Win."
SpartanMan82 (Check out chUMp of the Month Winners)
The recruiting situation is already improving. Nothing is certain until LOIs are signed, but getting a verbal from the top player in Pennsylvania last month was a sign of things to come. There is only room for a few more players in the 2014 Class, but it looks like MSU is bidding for some big names to add before signing day in February.
Much has been made of how well Mark Dantonio has done with "lower-tier" recruits, but that success doesn't mean that he only wants 2-star players. He will be going after "higher-tier" recruits for the 2015 Class, and we should see results of those recruiting efforts during the next eight months. I expect next year's group to finish in the Top 20, perhaps Top 15 or better.
The recruiting situation is already improving. Nothing is certain until LOIs are signed, but getting a verbal from the top player in Pennsylvania last month was a sign of things to come. There is only room for a few more players in the 2014 Class, but it looks like MSU is bidding for some big names to add before signing day in February.
Much has been made of how well Mark Dantonio has done with "lower-tier" recruits, but that success doesn't mean that he only wants 2-star players. He will be going after "higher-tier" recruits for the 2015 Class, and we should see results of those recruiting efforts during the next eight months. I expect next year's group to finish in the Top 20, perhaps Top 15 or better.
Meanwhile, the 2014 Class is ranked around #35 in the country right now, but every time Dantonio is asked about them, he says it's a great group. As long as Dantonio gets who he wants, it won't matter how many stars they have coming out of high school.
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MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Easy. How are the fans going to handle the coaching decisions related to Damion Terry and Connor Cook. Where will Tyler O'Conner fit into the scheme of things.
One other story: Will Desmond Howard actually get a clue?
Easy. How are the fans going to handle the coaching decisions related to Damion Terry and Connor Cook. Where will Tyler O'Conner fit into the scheme of things.
One other story: Will Desmond Howard actually get a clue?
SpartanMan82 (Check out This Date in chUMp History)
Damion Terry still seems to be a more talented quarterback than Connor Cook, yet Cook has two years experience ahead of him. Will Terry be given a fair chance at the job? If not, will he get to play in non-garbage-time situations? Tyler Hoover guarantees it.What happens with Don Treadwell? If Narduzzi stays with us, will there be a place for Treadwell on the staff?
What will Mark Hollis do about the perceived "problem" with the student section in Spartan Stadium? Several simple answers are available, and Hollis is more than competent enough to choose one of the solutions to the "problem". Will he fix it?
How do the coaches divide playing time between Jeremy Langford and the other viable running back candidates on the team now and those who will be arriving later this year? Langford will be a Senior, and we don't want a repeat of the LeVeon Bell show from last year, with one running back monopolizing all of the carries for a full season.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Player development is what I am most intrigued with. Defense will have a ton of talent but there will be holes to fill. Guys like Harris, Davis, LT, Clemons, Bullough, Hicks, Robinson, Edmundson, Jones, Reschke, etc. are all going to be given their opportunities to step up. It will be exciting to see what they do with those opportunities. But even on the offensive side of the ball guys like Holmes, Troup, Madaris, Arnett, Chmura, and even Shelton have showed some flashes. Can any of them step up and rock the boat? Do the starters up their game because of that competition?
Other storylines to watch: Where does Terry shake out and does Coach D go live with the QB's again? Where do guys like Williams and Lyles end up? Does Fowler petition for a 6th year? Potential transfers?
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3. How many losses will be too many for David Brandon to keep the Hokester at the Helm in Ann Arbor? MythAgain plays Notre Dame, Ohio STATE and MSU away from the Pig House. Will Hoke win enough games in 2014 to keep his job?
SpartanMan82 (Check out chUMp Satire)
A five-loss season would be very hard for Hoke to survive, but get ready for his resurrection early in the year. Michigan could again be 6-1, if not 7-0, before the bottom falls out next season. He really needs 10 wins to settle down that fan-base, but he won't get that many.My guess is that Michigan will finish 8-4 next year, with multiple camps operating behind the scenes regarding the coach situation. If he wins his bowl game, he stays. If he loses his bowl game, he's gone.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
No clue about if or what it will take for Hoke to keep his job. I have been perplexed by that situation with how the U of M fan base revolted against RichRod who was trending back toward a successful program but they are much more patient with Hoke who was his most successful off what RichRod built and has regressed since then.
I think Dave Brandon needs to worry about his own job. Michigan fans are getting tired of a lot of the business decisions being made regarding the program. Ticket prices are going up again and the home schedule for U of M is App St., Miami (OH), Utah, Minn, PSU, Ind, and Maryland. Also in talking to a few Michigan Men, they are not happy about the App St game being scheduled. While they understand the business side of it (should be an easy win but it will still drum up publicity) the publicity will be negative and remind fans of a very dark day in U of M football. Factor in that he is paying his coaching staff an exorbitant amount of money for the results they are getting and he seems to be putting very little pressure on them to change things up. I have even heard rumors that U of M might struggle to clear 100K in the stands at a couple of those poor games early games. How long do the powers that be at U of M allow their crown jewel to not sparkle?
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Who cares? This question, like the team it references, is totally irrelevant.
Ok, so I suppose I have to give some kind of answer. Here goes. If Coach Choke stops serving donuts and starts serving Dominos Pizza, David "Avoid the Noid" Brandon will keep him for decades.
MSU does not measure its success by whatever happens with the Ann Arbor Charm School football club. Let's leave that to the chUMps to fret over.
Who cares? This question, like the team it references, is totally irrelevant.
Ok, so I suppose I have to give some kind of answer. Here goes. If Coach Choke stops serving donuts and starts serving Dominos Pizza, David "Avoid the Noid" Brandon will keep him for decades.MSU does not measure its success by whatever happens with the Ann Arbor Charm School football club. Let's leave that to the chUMps to fret over.
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Administrator's Note: A happy shout out and huge thank you to our Front-Burner Contributors for the 2013 season. You guys really did a great job and brought new readers to SpartanResource.com - Thank you!!! - Return2Glory
Readers - Please let them know your thoughts about their contributions to Front-Burner by clicking the comment link below!
Friday, January 3, 2014
MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: The Game/Results - Beyond the Rose Bowl, Part 1
ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Front-Burner was published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
2A. ATownAndDown Feature
2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature
Part 3. Rose Bowl Discussion
3A. Pre-Game Discusison
3B. The Game/Results (This Edition)
3C. Beyond the Rose Bowl
Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
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SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
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1. People are calling the Spartans win at the Rose Bowl a "program win" and a "defining moment". What background stories surrounding that game/season do you find most interesting?
SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
I'm still impressed with the way MSU could lose two Seniors, one a fifth-year and the other an All-American, and still win the Rose Bowl. The post-game focus on Kyler Elsworth is almost a bit much, but not really when you consider the circumstances. Most teams have a huge drop-off from "starter" to "sub", but Mark Dantonio gets so many players into every game that the Spartans have exceptional depth all across the field on both sides of the ball.
When all of the skeptics and nay-sayers start to count-up all of the guys Michigan State will be losing to graduation, keep in mind that the players taking over for the dearly departed may be ready to play. How will we replace them? The same way that we replaced Ringer, Caulcrick, Hoyer, Jones, Thomas, Cousins, Gholston, et al.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Awesome, awesome, awesome win for MSU but I do find it interesting how the huge story line leading up to the game is getting buried now. We won and our defense stepped up and performed despite not having Max Bullough on the field. This goes to show the depth that MSU has built since Coach D arrived. Could you have imagined in 2009, finding out that Greg Jones was part of the Rather Hall incident and would not be playing against Texas Tech? Because losing Bullough was essentially the same impact but look at the depth and talent around that position that we have now. In my opinion that just shows how far we have come. It used to be a starter would get injured and there would be a panic of who is going to fill in and now its next man up and everyone else will be that much better too.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Technically, the expressions "program win" and "defining moment" apply. Any significant win is a defining moment, but the Spartans in 2013 had 14 defining moments, and yes, that includes the Notre Dame loss. The Notre Dame loss was the end of the beginning, to borrow from the wisdom of Winston Churchill. Or, to put it in a more modern context,
"It's not over and it will never be over here. It's just starting."
-- MSU Head Coach Mark Dantnonio, Nov. 6, 2007
What is most interesting is the amount of negative media coverage, the backhanded compliments, the constant assessing the Spartan defense as unproven or not legitimate because the had played "nobody" even after the B1G Ten Championship trouncing of then No.2 tO$U. What is interesting is the ABC introduction of the UolM at MSU game as "Michigan versus Little Brother Michigan State." What is interesting is the ESPN commentators, during the B1G Ten Championship game, using the "Little Brother" insult as if it were perfectly acceptable.
And, now? The media have all jumped, en mass, on the Spartan bandwagon. MSU is not a "little" anything to anyone anymore. MSU is now on the national stage. MSU has (finally) played someone (notice that it was not a B1G Ten opponent) and proven themselves. Now, everyone loves the Spartans, even quite a number of chUMps who have nothing better to do than make derogatory comments on MLive.com.
The big story I wish to relate concerns me. While I was watching the Rose Bowl, I watch Stanford push MSU around and chalk up a 10 point early lead. My thought was that I was about to witness another Alabama-isque shellacking. I shook my head and said to myself, "If those kids believe they can win, how can I do anything less." Literally. I reposed myself with positive thoughts about winning and watched the drama unfold.
We Spartans do have to raise the bar for ourselves. 4 decades of disappointment are hard to shake, but NOW is the time to gain a new mentality, a new outlook, a new expectation.
This answer continues with the next question...
2. Is the 2013 Spartan football team a flash in the pan, or is it the beginning of a new era?
3. Which game was bigger for MSU, the 2000 basketball championship/season or the 2014 Rose Bowl win/season? Is Dantonio approaching Izzo-like status in East Lansing, not in results, but in status within Spartan Nation?
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Hands down the 2000 National Championship was bigger. As I pointed out in a previous post, while this has been an awesome season for MSU football, its comparable to the 2011-2012 basketball teams success which is hardly one that goes down as the greatest ever. A national championship or being in the mix for a championship is the ultimate goal for every program. Kentucky basketball doesn't set its goal on winning the SEC. FSU football isn't happy with just winning the ACC. Winning the Rose Bowl and this season might be one of the (if not the) best seasons in football but there are bigger fish in the sea. There were no bigger fish in 2000.
I think Coach D is nearing Izzo status. He is taking the MSU Football Program to new heights and he does a ton for the school. The thing that makes Izzo so much of an icon is what he does off the court. Coach D is having the on the field success and I think he is loyal to the university and becoming an institution here.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
The 2000 NCAA Basketball Tournament Championship was great, but that is ancient history. We really do not want to use chUMps are role models.
Connor Cook said it best. You are only remembered by your last game. That makes this easy. The 2014 Rose Bowl is bigger for MSU... until March.
SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
We now have a new definition of "Same Old Spartans" and it is one that we will delight in going forward. Same Old Spartans now means Championships. The team brings back a solid core for 2014, there will be no speed bump in that transition. The team will continue or improve on the 42 wins in 4 seasons.
It is the beginning of a new era. Like the Phoenix, the Spartans have risen. Biggie Munn, Duffy Daugherty, Chester L. Brewer, Charles W. Bachmann, and John F. Macklin are all smiling. So is everyone who bleeds green.
We now have a new definition of "Same Old Spartans" and it is one that we will delight in going forward. Same Old Spartans now means Championships. The team brings back a solid core for 2014, there will be no speed bump in that transition. The team will continue or improve on the 42 wins in 4 seasons.
It is the beginning of a new era. Like the Phoenix, the Spartans have risen. Biggie Munn, Duffy Daugherty, Chester L. Brewer, Charles W. Bachmann, and John F. Macklin are all smiling. So is everyone who bleeds green.
SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
I would say it is the end of a new era, the ascendancy of the Mark Dantonio Program. The past seven years, now completed, were the transition phase from the "old ways" (SOS) to the "new ways" (Champions) of playing football at Michigan State. We are now officially done with the past.
Dantonio said upon his hiring that he would probably coach for about 10 years. He looks solid for three more, and maybe beyond, but we are entering the middle phase of the Mark Dantonio Program. In this era, he can tell a guy like Drake Harris to just go away and stay away if you want to flip-flop all over the place. He can find other players now.
MSU is poised now for a great run at the brass ring, and we all as fans have to be careful not to become those whom we despise for their arrogance. If we become just "another Michigan", shame on us. I'm sure the team will not turn into "those guys", but we as fans need to be vigilant as we maintain our core values in the midst of new found success.
The end of this era will be marked by the identification of the successor to Dantonio. I would not be surprised to see an official transition period of a season or two to maintain program continuity as the Head Coach position is changed.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
I think its a continuation of the era. Last year there was a lot of talk of could MSU win without Kirk Cousins and Co. on the team. This year shows that team wasn't that far off being a 9-10 win team too. A few less injuries and a couple of breaks could have easily made things different. There has been a general progression throughout the Dantonio Era. The first couple years were getting the team on track and getting to bowl games. That transitioned into competing in the conference and winning bowl games. And now look where we sit.
I would say it is the end of a new era, the ascendancy of the Mark Dantonio Program. The past seven years, now completed, were the transition phase from the "old ways" (SOS) to the "new ways" (Champions) of playing football at Michigan State. We are now officially done with the past.
Dantonio said upon his hiring that he would probably coach for about 10 years. He looks solid for three more, and maybe beyond, but we are entering the middle phase of the Mark Dantonio Program. In this era, he can tell a guy like Drake Harris to just go away and stay away if you want to flip-flop all over the place. He can find other players now.
MSU is poised now for a great run at the brass ring, and we all as fans have to be careful not to become those whom we despise for their arrogance. If we become just "another Michigan", shame on us. I'm sure the team will not turn into "those guys", but we as fans need to be vigilant as we maintain our core values in the midst of new found success.
The end of this era will be marked by the identification of the successor to Dantonio. I would not be surprised to see an official transition period of a season or two to maintain program continuity as the Head Coach position is changed.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
I think its a continuation of the era. Last year there was a lot of talk of could MSU win without Kirk Cousins and Co. on the team. This year shows that team wasn't that far off being a 9-10 win team too. A few less injuries and a couple of breaks could have easily made things different. There has been a general progression throughout the Dantonio Era. The first couple years were getting the team on track and getting to bowl games. That transitioned into competing in the conference and winning bowl games. And now look where we sit.
3. Which game was bigger for MSU, the 2000 basketball championship/season or the 2014 Rose Bowl win/season? Is Dantonio approaching Izzo-like status in East Lansing, not in results, but in status within Spartan Nation?
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Hands down the 2000 National Championship was bigger. As I pointed out in a previous post, while this has been an awesome season for MSU football, its comparable to the 2011-2012 basketball teams success which is hardly one that goes down as the greatest ever. A national championship or being in the mix for a championship is the ultimate goal for every program. Kentucky basketball doesn't set its goal on winning the SEC. FSU football isn't happy with just winning the ACC. Winning the Rose Bowl and this season might be one of the (if not the) best seasons in football but there are bigger fish in the sea. There were no bigger fish in 2000.
I think Coach D is nearing Izzo status. He is taking the MSU Football Program to new heights and he does a ton for the school. The thing that makes Izzo so much of an icon is what he does off the court. Coach D is having the on the field success and I think he is loyal to the university and becoming an institution here.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
The 2000 NCAA Basketball Tournament Championship was great, but that is ancient history. We really do not want to use chUMps are role models.
Connor Cook said it best. You are only remembered by your last game. That makes this easy. The 2014 Rose Bowl is bigger for MSU... until March.
SpartanMan82 (Prophesy and New Reality, By SM82)
A national championship, earned by winning a tournament rather than an election, remains bigger than what the football team did this year. It's roughly equivalent to one of the Final Four years in which we weren't expected to get there. That makes it a great season, without question, but not the same as cutting down the net for Coach Izzo to wear as a necklace.
Dantonio has made great strides in public reputation this season, but with all due respect, he's no Tom Izzo. I would rate Dantonio at this time as similar to Izzo at the end of the 1999 season. That's pretty darn good, as we all were thrilled with what Izzo had done in four years.
But to answer your exact question, I would say "yes, he's APPROACHING that status".
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Dantonio has made great strides in public reputation this season, but with all due respect, he's no Tom Izzo. I would rate Dantonio at this time as similar to Izzo at the end of the 1999 season. That's pretty darn good, as we all were thrilled with what Izzo had done in four years.
But to answer your exact question, I would say "yes, he's APPROACHING that status".
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Thursday, January 2, 2014
Rose Bowl Post-Game
My predictions are published in Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers
First, congratulations to Stanford for an outstanding season and compliments on a well-played, hard fought constest in Pasadena.
The biggest success in the analysis is the prediction that the Spartans would have a successful passing and and the Cardinal pass game would be somewhat contained. Also, that there would be drama rushing the ball, both ways was mentnioned. All of this came true in an exciting game.
Both teams played tough. Great game.
And, now comes crow time. I either get to crow or I eat crow. Either way, I am covered in roses.
Stanford Predictions:
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards) actual: 162 yards, 34 yards more than predicted.
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards) actual: 143 yards.
15 points (+4/-4 points) actual: 20 points, 1 point higher than predicted.
Michigan St. Predictions:
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards) actual: 65 yards, 9 yards lower than predicted.
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards) actual: 332 yards, 98 yards more than predicted.
19 points (+4/-7 points) actual: 24 points, 1 point higher than predicted.
Margin of victory predicted is 4 points, which matches the game result.
Only 1 of 6 correct but 3 others were very close calls.
Roses are wonderful. I don't think any crow is served today.
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First, congratulations to Stanford for an outstanding season and compliments on a well-played, hard fought constest in Pasadena.
The biggest success in the analysis is the prediction that the Spartans would have a successful passing and and the Cardinal pass game would be somewhat contained. Also, that there would be drama rushing the ball, both ways was mentnioned. All of this came true in an exciting game.
Both teams played tough. Great game.
And, now comes crow time. I either get to crow or I eat crow. Either way, I am covered in roses.
Stanford Predictions:
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards) actual: 162 yards, 34 yards more than predicted.
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards) actual: 143 yards.
15 points (+4/-4 points) actual: 20 points, 1 point higher than predicted.
Michigan St. Predictions:
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards) actual: 65 yards, 9 yards lower than predicted.
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards) actual: 332 yards, 98 yards more than predicted.
19 points (+4/-7 points) actual: 24 points, 1 point higher than predicted.
Margin of victory predicted is 4 points, which matches the game result.
Only 1 of 6 correct but 3 others were very close calls.
Roses are wonderful. I don't think any crow is served today.
Thank you Spartans, may I have another!
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: Rose Bowl Pre-Game Edition
BIG TEN CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Front-Burner was be published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
2A. ATownAndDown Feature
2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature
Part 3. Rose Bowl Discussion (This Edition)
Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
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SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
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Part 3 Discussion Questions (Readers COMMENT below the post.)
2. To beat Ohio State, Connor Cook had to play the game of his life. What are the Spartans chances if he just has an average game against Stanford? How does the loss of Max Bullough factor in your answer?
3. I felt that Spartans "been there before" would help them in the B1G Championship Game. The shoe is now on the other foot as Stanford knows this Rose Bowl Week spectacle very well. Added in with other intangibles like time zone, travel, warm weather would you consider a win at the Rose Bowl a bigger upset than beating Ohio State? Why?
4. What are the chances that Stanford wins and it's not even close? How about the idea that MSU wins and it's not even close; more or less likely than Stanford winning by a wide margin?
______________________________
Panelist Responses
A chUMp posted on MLive.com the following (refers to UolM wins versus MSU):
1970s 9-1
1980s 8-2
1990s 6-4
2000s 7-3
2010s 1-3
I think the trend line is obvious in that data. It does deliberately mask the 5-2 record Coach Dantonio owns and the 1-2 record owned by the chUMp coach.
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3. I felt that Spartans "been there before" would help them in the B1G Championship Game. The shoe is now on the other foot as Stanford knows this Rose Bowl Week spectacle very well. Added in with other intangibles like time zone, travel, warm weather would you consider a win at the Rose Bowl a bigger upset than beating Ohio State? Why?
I don't know if it will be a bigger upset. I mean it was more than OSU folks that were banking on that win. There were businesses marketing travel stuff to OSU fans to the National Championship Game even before they played us. But as far as statements go, it will be big. MSU is stepping into the heart of Pac 12 country to play a team that is highly rated and used to the atmosphere. ESPN has been pushing the 100th Rose Bowl too so there will be a lot of eyes on this one. Also, its one thing to beat the team that is perceived to be the cream of the weak B1G and its another to beat a team that is perceived to be the cream of the Pac 12. So while you are not stopping a 2 year undefeated streak and ending a teams National Championship dreams, you are still making a statement that we are legit.
Well, yea, there is that big parade and Disneyland and warm weather, but the boys in green have been faced with distractions many times now. It's not like this is their first trip out of State and it certainly is not like this is their first bowl game. Would I consider it a bigger upset? To start with, I predicted the MSU win over OSU and I have predicted a MSU win over Stanford so I really can not answer this question in the context of an upset.
But it certainly will be the sweeter victory.
Panelist Responses
1. Does seeing the chUMps get spanked by a 7-5 Kansas State team in the BWW Bowl take anything away from the dominating win the Spartans notched against them this year?
SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
No, not at all, just check the record. Michigan was 6-1 when they met Michigan State in Spartan Stadium, and since that game, UM could only win one more time, in triple-overtime. MSU also gave them their worst loss of the season.
The Spartans crushed the Wolverines, in one game destroying their entire season. Kansas State was just the team that happened to draw them in the bowl game, and dispatched them accordingly.
Every team that played Michigan after November 2 had a clear "green-print" for how to pound on the Bluebloods. The KSU win was a validation of the November 2 doomsday game for UM, along with all of their other losses along the way.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
No, not at all, just check the record. Michigan was 6-1 when they met Michigan State in Spartan Stadium, and since that game, UM could only win one more time, in triple-overtime. MSU also gave them their worst loss of the season.
The Spartans crushed the Wolverines, in one game destroying their entire season. Kansas State was just the team that happened to draw them in the bowl game, and dispatched them accordingly.
Every team that played Michigan after November 2 had a clear "green-print" for how to pound on the Bluebloods. The KSU win was a validation of the November 2 doomsday game for UM, along with all of their other losses along the way.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Not at all. Bowl games are fickle creatures. There is so much that can impact the outcome that to read too far into the tea leaves is silly. When MSU faced U of M earlier this year they were a different team than the one that showed up to the bowl game. They had a starting QB and still had hopes of winning the division. You saw them stumble hard down the stretch and even saw the desperation of Hoke and Co. to spark something by going for 2 instead of tying the OSU game late. Not getting those 2 points and losing their starting QB really took the wind out of a defeated U of M team's sails by the time they faced KSU.
Since we are on the subject here is a fun factoid for you: RichRod's records at U of M were 3-9; 5-7; and 7-6 and he was fired. Hoke has gone 11-2; 8-5; and 7-6 but the Michigan Men are only at a dull roar about firing him. It would appear that RichRod was trending up and lost his job and Hoke is trending down off of what RichRod built but not a lot of folks speaking up. U of M has talent but Hoke is going to have to fall into something to have success with how fast he lost control of this team.
Since we are on the subject here is a fun factoid for you: RichRod's records at U of M were 3-9; 5-7; and 7-6 and he was fired. Hoke has gone 11-2; 8-5; and 7-6 but the Michigan Men are only at a dull roar about firing him. It would appear that RichRod was trending up and lost his job and Hoke is trending down off of what RichRod built but not a lot of folks speaking up. U of M has talent but Hoke is going to have to fall into something to have success with how fast he lost control of this team.
Michigan who? The bar for Michigan State is set way much higher than just merely beating UolM. Also, that game was expected. It was predicted in this post: The Fall of UolM. The Spartans exposed UolM for what it was, something the media is just no catching on to. So, no. The KSU loss in the wings bowl was just another progression in the downward spiral.
A chUMp posted on MLive.com the following (refers to UolM wins versus MSU):
1970s 9-1
1980s 8-2
1990s 6-4
2000s 7-3
2010s 1-3
I think the trend line is obvious in that data. It does deliberately mask the 5-2 record Coach Dantonio owns and the 1-2 record owned by the chUMp coach.
---
Insert by Retrun to Glory, M-Live poster, RosesAreGreen responded to the chUMp's post and others like it with the following:
RosesAreGreen
TO ALL MICHIGAN FANS WHO HAVE POSTED BELOW:
UM has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 1986.
MSU has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 2009.
Michigan HAS NEVER had back to back 11 win seasons.
Michigan HAS NEVER won 13 games in a season as MSU has a chance to do vs. Stanford.
UM's cycle of continuous improvement vs. MSU since the Wolvies last Big 10 championship season in football (10 years and counting....)
2004 - 45 points
2005 - 34 points
2006 - 31 points
2007 - 28 points
2008 - 21 points
2009 - 20 points
2010 - 17 points
2011 - 14 points
2012 - 12 points
2013 - 6 points
Hoke's 3 teams have been outscored by MSU 67-32 (minus 35)
Rich Rod's 3 teams were outscored by MSU 95-58 (minus 37)
That's progress!!! Keep up the good work!
RosesAreGreen
TO ALL MICHIGAN FANS WHO HAVE POSTED BELOW:
UM has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 1986.
MSU has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 2009.
Michigan HAS NEVER had back to back 11 win seasons.
Michigan HAS NEVER won 13 games in a season as MSU has a chance to do vs. Stanford.
UM's cycle of continuous improvement vs. MSU since the Wolvies last Big 10 championship season in football (10 years and counting....)
2004 - 45 points
2005 - 34 points
2006 - 31 points
2007 - 28 points
2008 - 21 points
2009 - 20 points
2010 - 17 points
2011 - 14 points
2012 - 12 points
2013 - 6 points
Hoke's 3 teams have been outscored by MSU 67-32 (minus 35)
Rich Rod's 3 teams were outscored by MSU 95-58 (minus 37)
That's progress!!! Keep up the good work!
______________________________
2. To beat Ohio State, Connor Cook had to play the game of his life. What are the Spartans chances if he just has an average game against Stanford? How does the loss of Max Bullough factor in your answer?
To beat Ohio State? Certainly Connor Cook had a career game and certainly that was a significant contribution, but I do not believe it was the passing yards and much as it was the resilience of the team that ultimately got the win.
Connor Cook will have the best game he can, come 5:00 pm (EST) on 1/1/14. We are fortunate that the Cardinal pass defense is not the best the Spartans have faced this season. Statistically, it is only marginally better than tO$U, which makes it the 11th best faced this season. tO$U, IU, Northwestern are ranked lower. The Stanford pass defense, statistically, is comparable to Youngstown State. Just as a point of reference.
Max? Max will be on the field in spirit. You can count on that.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
I think calling it the "game of his life" is a bit a of a stretch. From a QB rating stand point it was his 5th best game of the season against a defense that ranked 11th in the B1G in passing yards allowed and 9th in the B1G in QB rating allowed. It was a solid performance on a big stage which is always good to see a guy not buckle under pressure. With that said, I am firmly in the mindset that with Bullough suspended everyone else (coaches, offense and defense) need to step their game up that much. Cook needs have another solid performance and maybe even better than B1G Championship Game. The offense needs to sustain drives to give the defense a rest from Stanford's physical offense. The offense might have to put a few extra points on the board. The offense also needs to not turn the ball over and give Stanford extra shots at the defense. Cook is integral to those things and I think giving extra opportunities to Stanford is going to be a bad thing.Connor Cook will have the best game he can, come 5:00 pm (EST) on 1/1/14. We are fortunate that the Cardinal pass defense is not the best the Spartans have faced this season. Statistically, it is only marginally better than tO$U, which makes it the 11th best faced this season. tO$U, IU, Northwestern are ranked lower. The Stanford pass defense, statistically, is comparable to Youngstown State. Just as a point of reference.
Max? Max will be on the field in spirit. You can count on that.
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
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3. I felt that Spartans "been there before" would help them in the B1G Championship Game. The shoe is now on the other foot as Stanford knows this Rose Bowl Week spectacle very well. Added in with other intangibles like time zone, travel, warm weather would you consider a win at the Rose Bowl a bigger upset than beating Ohio State? Why?
I don't know if it will be a bigger upset. I mean it was more than OSU folks that were banking on that win. There were businesses marketing travel stuff to OSU fans to the National Championship Game even before they played us. But as far as statements go, it will be big. MSU is stepping into the heart of Pac 12 country to play a team that is highly rated and used to the atmosphere. ESPN has been pushing the 100th Rose Bowl too so there will be a lot of eyes on this one. Also, its one thing to beat the team that is perceived to be the cream of the weak B1G and its another to beat a team that is perceived to be the cream of the Pac 12. So while you are not stopping a 2 year undefeated streak and ending a teams National Championship dreams, you are still making a statement that we are legit.
But it certainly will be the sweeter victory.
______________________________
4. What are the chances that Stanford wins and it's not even close? How about the idea that MSU wins and it's not even close; more or less likely than Stanford winning by a wide margin?
Stanford 24 versus Michigan State 35
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Neither team is known for running away from opponents. Both teams have only 4 wins this season of 20 points or more. Both teams also like to play a physical running offense and when they can get a lead in the second half that running game gets stronger. Defenses start to wear down and the clock starts to run down. Opponents become one dimensional and your pass rushers start pinning their ears back. So neither team runs away in the scoring column because they limit their own opportunities with this style. But because of the way they play a 10 point lead can seem like a 20 point lead.
I don't think either team opens up a large margin. I think MSU getting out to a lead early is going to help. The loss of Bullough is big because of the number of facets it impacts. Replacing a 6-4, 250 lbs guy in the middle with a 6-1, 225 is going to mean that guy is going to wear down faster than Bullough against a relentless rushing attack. If we can get Stanford in a position where they can't run as often as they would like that is going to save that guy. And if that guy in the middle can't hold up alone and needs support, Stanford has smart enough coaches to attack where those guys are supposed to be.
In my opinion, that is the linchpin for the entire game: what does MSU have to do to take pressure off that position? If the offense can get out and put some pressure on Stanford to try and move the ball down the field quicker that is one way. If Narduzzi can out chess match Stanford's attack so they are chasing holes and weaknesses that are not there any more that is another. Heck if the combo of Elsworth and Harris can somehow hold up over 60 minutes of pounding that works too. But if Stanford can attack where it wants to attack and pick up chuck yards, they will take advantage of that all day. Look at what they did against Oregon: 66 rushes and 13 passes. That is their goal and we need to figure out how to not allow it.
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4. What are the chances that Stanford wins and it's not even close? How about the idea that MSU wins and it's not even close; more or less likely than Stanford winning by a wide margin?
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Neither team is known for running away from opponents. Both teams have only 4 wins this season of 20 points or more. Both teams also like to play a physical running offense and when they can get a lead in the second half that running game gets stronger. Defenses start to wear down and the clock starts to run down. Opponents become one dimensional and your pass rushers start pinning their ears back. So neither team runs away in the scoring column because they limit their own opportunities with this style. But because of the way they play a 10 point lead can seem like a 20 point lead.
I don't think either team opens up a large margin. I think MSU getting out to a lead early is going to help. The loss of Bullough is big because of the number of facets it impacts. Replacing a 6-4, 250 lbs guy in the middle with a 6-1, 225 is going to mean that guy is going to wear down faster than Bullough against a relentless rushing attack. If we can get Stanford in a position where they can't run as often as they would like that is going to save that guy. And if that guy in the middle can't hold up alone and needs support, Stanford has smart enough coaches to attack where those guys are supposed to be.
In my opinion, that is the linchpin for the entire game: what does MSU have to do to take pressure off that position? If the offense can get out and put some pressure on Stanford to try and move the ball down the field quicker that is one way. If Narduzzi can out chess match Stanford's attack so they are chasing holes and weaknesses that are not there any more that is another. Heck if the combo of Elsworth and Harris can somehow hold up over 60 minutes of pounding that works too. But if Stanford can attack where it wants to attack and pick up chuck yards, they will take advantage of that all day. Look at what they did against Oregon: 66 rushes and 13 passes. That is their goal and we need to figure out how to not allow it.
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Wednesday, December 25, 2013
The Rose Bowl: Spartans Time To Change The College Football Landscape
Spartan fans need to stop settling for being just being
better than mediocre. It is becoming almost epidemic leading up to this Rose
Bowl. There have been a number of us
that just want to “enjoy the moment” of reaching the Rose Bowl or those that
believe a 12-1 season with a B1G Championship and Rose Bowl are more important
than a basketball National Championship.
How can we as a fan base ask everyone else to change their perception of
the Spartan Football Program if we can’t even change our own?
I wrote about this prior to the B1G Championship Game. If you want the rest of the college football
world to give you the benefit of the doubt or to get selected to the more
respected bowl, you have to win. And
then go out and win again. And again.
Well we did it.
Not only did we go out with the eyes of college football on us and beat
the #2 team in the nation but we did so in an impressive manner. There are those among us that are content
now. They are “enjoying the moment” if you will. Now don’t get me wrong: I am
ecstatic with the win over OSU. Absolutely
love it. But I am not content. Heck the season is not even over yet!
The win over OSU is going to mean a lot less if we go and
get our heads kicked in by Stanford. And God forbid OSU gets pounded by Clemson
too. Suddenly that national perception is knocked back to the Stone Age.
Let’s skip ahead and say we beat Stanford. Does that mean
we have arrived? Everything is all good?
In my opinion, there is still work to do.
Iowa won the Orange Bowl in 2009.
The following year Penn State was selected to the Outback Bowl over
Iowa, despite Iowa winning the head-to-head battle. The perception of Iowa remains the same today:
a decent program that can put together a magical season every now and again. It
takes more than one good season to change the perception of your program.
Those that would take this season (plus a Rose Bowl
victory) over a National Title in basketball show why there is a difference
between the perception of our basketball program (which is undeniably respected
on a national level) and our football program. Look no further than the
2011-2012 basketball season for the proof of this. That year we started off
unranked and eventually finished with a share of the B1G regular season, won
the B1G Tourney and made it to the Sweet 16.
And yet look at how many of us were disappointed with that outcome because
we fell short of the Final Four and ultimately a National Championship.
Now this year the results of the football team are about
on par with that basketball season. Unranked to start. Ended up winning the
division. Won the B1G Championship. If we beat Stanford we will have some
success in the postseason too. And we
are satisfied with that? Are we just that jaded by the success in basketball or
are we not demanding enough in football?
Take a second to think about which B1G teams are on that
national level that we want to be. Which B1G teams get the respect we want?
Ohio State. Wisconsin maybe. U of M’s brand props them up but they have
slipped. Same for Nebraska. And that’s it.
But since 1998 when the BCS system was instituted, only Minnesota,
Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan State are the only B1G teams to not play in
a BCS bowl. Illinois has made multiple
appearances and how do you feel the Illinois program looks nationally? OSU, Wisconsin, U of M and Nebraska have a
ton of appearance and even those 4 have their national perception issues (see
OSU getting jumped this year despite not losing). Being content with just making it to the Rose
Bowl and not following up this season with another solid year isn’t going to be
enough.
I love the success that we have had this year. It is
great to point to 3 of the last 4 years with 11 or more wins. But at the end of the day, I am still hungry.
I still want more. I want what Bama has
because they are disappointed by their one loss season. I want what Texas has
where they fire their coach who was one win away from a conference championship
because they are not playing for National Championships. I want the term “magical season” to morph
into “that is MSU doing what MSU does.”
Those changes take time but we have another opportunity
to make a statement in the Rose Bowl and then again against Oregon early next
year. So here we are with a seat at the table. Let’s make some noise instead of
just enjoying being here.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Countdown To Roses - The Rose Bowl by the Numbers
This is an analyses of the Rose Bowl contenders, Stanford versus Michigan State.
Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:
MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4
The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.
The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.
The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:
Now we look at the upcoming Rose Bowl -- the Pac-12 Champion Stanford (11-2) versus the B1G Ten Champion, Michigan St. (12-1).
MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.
There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).
NCAA Statistics
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.
Key Matchups
One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.
The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.
"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.
Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:
Stanford Predictions
Michigan St. Predictions
Scored High/Low Ranges
Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.
Based on the results of the 4 prior analyses, we can expect the following results:
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Analyses of predictions for the 4 last games won by the Spartans had the following results:
MSU rushing yards: 2 of 4
MSU passing yards: 2 of 4
MSU scoring: 1 of 4
Opponent rushing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent passing yards: 1 of 4
Opponent scoring: 1 of 4
The prediction accuracy is 9 of 24. There were also 8 predictions that came very close to the game results.
The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 37.5% of performance metrics with another 33.3% coming very close.
The Winners were correctly predicted in 4 of 4 games. Margin of victory fell within prediction ranges in 3 of 4 games. The analyses and results are posted at:
MSU has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 77-80 (0.4904). Stanford has faced 13 opponents with a composite record of 91-67 (0.5759). This will be the toughest game of the season for both teams.
There are those who will argue that Stanford's more competitive schedule proves something. It might, but that argument is countered by MSU defeating arguably the toughest team in both schedules, (then No. 2 and undefeated) OSU. Still, MSU's season numbers were versus a weaker slate of opponents. However, the analysis includes that by comparing performance metrics rather than just season data aggregate averages (aka NCAA season statistics).
| Stanford | Michigan State | ||||
| OFFENSE | Rank | Value | DEFENSE | Rank | Value |
| Total yd/gm | 65 | 413.1 | Total yd/gm | 1 | 248.2 |
| Rush yd/gm | 23 | 210.9 | Rush yd/gm | 1 | 80.8 |
| Pass yd/gm | 90 | 202.2 | Pass yd/gm | 6 | 167.4 |
| Pass Eff. | 17 | 154.3 | Pass Eff. | 2 | 91.5 |
| Scoring pt/gm | 39 | 33.2 | Scoring pt/gm | 4 | 12.7 |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 33 | 45.0 | 3rd Down Conv. % | 12 | 32.4 |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 19 | 64.3 | 4th Down Conv. % | 62 | 51.6 |
| 1st Downs | 45 | 272 | 1st Downs | 77 | 259 |
| Red Zone % | 78 | 80.4 | Red Zone % | 19 | 74.4 |
| DEFENSE | Rank | Value | OFFENSE | Rank | Value |
| Total yd/gm | 14 | 339.0 | Total yd/gm | 82 | 384.6 |
| Rush yd/gm | 3 | 91.2 | Rush yd/gm | 51 | 182.2 |
| Pass yd/gm | 90 | 247.8 | Pass yd/gm | 89 | 202.5 |
| Pass Eff. | 48 | 122.5 | Pass Eff. | 68 | 128.0 |
| Scoring pt/gm | 10 | 18.6 | Scoring pt/gm | 61 | 29.8 |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 12 | 32.4 | 3rd Down Conv. % | 33 | 45.0 |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 62 | 51.6 | 4th Down Conv. % | 19 | 64.3 |
| 1st Downs | 77 | 259 | 1st Downs | 45 | 272 |
| Red Zone % | 19 | 74.4 | Red Zone % | 78 | 80.4 |
| MISC. | Rank | Value | MISC. | Rank | Value |
| Punt yd/rtn | T-51 | 8.9 | Punt yd/p | 29 | 38.3 |
| Punt yd/p | 42 | 37.8 | Punt yd/rtn | 41 | 10.1 |
| Kickoff yd/rtn | 1 | 27.8 | Kickoff yd/rtn | 99 | 19.2 |
| TO/gm | 67 | -0.1 | TO/gm | T-7 | 1.1 |
| Penalties/gm | 41 | 5.1 | Penalties/gm | 66 | 5.5 |
| Penalty yd/gm | 50 | 43.5 | Penalty yd/gm | 82 | 51.6 |
| TOP | 23 | 31:59 | TOP | 5 | 33:28 |
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that teams are on par in all aspects except the Spartan pass defense has the advantage over the Cardinal passing attack. What we can expect is drama both ways in the rushing game, the Spartan passing game moving the ball normally and the Cardinal passing game being somewhat contained.
| Stanford rush O | 210.9 yd/gm | MSU rush D | 80.8 yd/gm |
| ave opponent D | 168.6 yd/gm | ave opponent O | 168.5 yd/gm |
| O performance | 125.1% | D performance | 48.0% |
| Stanford pass O | 202.2 yd/gm | MSU pass D | 167.4 yd/gm |
| ave opponent D | 237.5 yd/gm | ave opponent O | 220.3 yd/gm |
| O performance | 85.1% | D performance | 76.0% |
| Stanford scoring O | 33.2 pt/gm | MSU scoring D | 12.7 pt/gm |
| ave opponent D | 28.4 pt/gm | ave opponent O | 28.3 pt/gm |
| O performance | 116.9% | D performance | 44.9% |
| MSU rush O | 182.2 yd/gm | Stanford rush D | 91.2 yd/gm |
| ave opponent D | 175.8 yd/gm | ave opponent O | 176.7 yd/gm |
| O performance | 103.6% | D performance | 51.6% |
| MSU pass O | 202.5 yd/gm | Stanford pass D | 247.8 yd/gm |
| ave opponent D | 225.8 yd/gm | ave opponent O | 276.1 yd/gm |
| O performance | 89.7% | D performance | 89.8% |
| MSU scoring O | 29.8 pt/gm | Stanford scoring D | 18.6 pt/gm |
| ave opponent D | 28.2 pt/gm | ave opponent O | 33.4 pt/gm |
| O performance | 105.7% | D performance | 55.7% |
One can see from the data that there are some interesting matchups. In the table, "performance" is the ratio of how well the team's O/D unit as a season average did versus the aggregate average of all opponents' season averages. Stanford rushing offense, on average gained 25% more yards than their combined opponents allowed over the season on average. Facing the Cardinal rush is the Spartan defense that held its opponents, on average, to under 50% of their season performances.
The statistical performance analysis used in the prior 4 games goes beyond simple data averages listed above and is used again for the upcoming contest.
| Stanford | MV | SD | min | median | max |
| Rush O | 128.5% | 29.6% | 93.1% | 112.0% | 169.0% |
| Pass O | 83.2% | 29.0% | 37.4% | 83.6% | 124.9% |
| Score O | 118.4% | 35.1% | 62.3% | 117.9% | 175.7% |
| Rush D | 51.4% | 30.2% | 13.2% | 42.9% | 112.9% |
| Pass D | 90.1% | 25.3% | 60.7% | 84.8% | 132.6% |
| Score D | 57.5% | 19.3% | 27.4% | 57.0% | 92.5% |
| Michigan St. | MV | SD | min | median | max |
| Rush O | 107.3% | 26.0% | 67.9% | 104.2% | 170.0% |
| Pass O | 89.2% | 29.5% | 44.5% | 85.6% | 151.9% |
| Score O | 109% | 47.3% | 36.8% | 109.4% | 219.9% |
| Rush D | 46.1% | 38.3% | -36.7% | 46.4% | 99.3% |
| Pass D | 76.7% | 25.6% | 35.8% | 84.4% | 120.3% |
| Score D | 42.8% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 50.3% | 85.9% |
"MV" = Mean Value, which is the statistical midpoint of a distribution curve. "SD" = Standard Deviation, which both reflects the spread or width of the distribution as well as the boundary that encloses 68.4% of the data in the distribution (between the MV -1 SD and MV +1 SD). On offense, the "max." is best. On defense, the "min." is best. The "median" is the over/under or 50-50 point. Half of the results are greater than the median and half of the results are less.
Applying the statistical intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-) gives the following predictions:
Stanford Predictions
101 yards rushing (+27/-21 yards)
147 yards passing (+41/-44 yards)
15 points (+4/-4 points)
Michigan St. Predictions
96 yards rushing (+26/-22 yards)
202 yards passing (+32/-54 yards)
19 points (+4/-7 points)
Scored High/Low Ranges
| Standford | 19 | Michigan St. | 12 |
| Standford | 11 | Michigan St. | 23 |
Of the many other NCAA statistics available for both teams, a few grab one's attention:
MSU 3rd down defense (No. 1) 27.7% verus Stanford 3rd down offense (No. 9) 51.1%.
MSU 1st downs defense (No. 4) 189 allowed versus Stanford 1st downs offense (No. 69) 252 gained.
MSU TO margin (No. 7) +1.1/gm versus Stanford TO margin (No. 67) -0.1/gm.
Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
Stanford 15 vs Michigan St. 19
Stanford
rush: max prediction + 25 yards
pass: as predicted
score: 21-24 points
Michigan St.
rush: max prediction + 25 yards
pass: max prediction + 25 yards
score: 31-35 points
MSUSpartan76's Bold Prediction
Stanford 24 vs Michigan St. 35
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Tuesday, December 17, 2013
MSU FOOTBALL FRONT-BURNER: 2013 REWIND Featuring MSUSpartan76
BIG TEN CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program.
Front-Burner will be published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
2A. ATownAndDown Feature
2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature (This Edition)
Part 3. Rose Bowl and Beyond Discussion
Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Part 2 Discussion Questions (Readers COMMENT below the post.)
1. Looking back at the season, what are your favorite two or three specific moments/visions - not stats or general outcomes/results, but specific events captured on TV, seen in person, read about or heard on the radio?
2. What are some of the most impressive observations/aspects of this team, staff, players, program, etc. that you feel may have gone a bit under reported?
3. Mark Dantonio selected a few true-freshmen to play this season, while still red-shirting most of their classmates. How do you feel about the decisions to activate Shelton, Williams, and Geiger?
4. How many of the fans who wanted Damion Terry to "burn the redshirt" still think that would have been the right thing to do? What does that tell us for the future about fan reactions and early-season perceptions?
5. As for the QB competition, Datonio was accused of was "creating a circus". Was Dantonio being indecisive or was he merely being patient while gathering information, adjusting and verifying? A little of both? What was your take on the situation then vs. now?
6. Michigan State has 18 seniors and will suffer significant losses on defense. Although the Spartans do return good players on defense, I think most analysts will assume a significant drop off in defensive production. Whatever that drop off might be, if there is one, discuss your thoughts on how the experienced offense might help out the defense in 2014. Will it? Can it? Will it be needed?
1. Looking back at the season, what are your favorite two or three specific moments/visions - not stats or general outcomes/results, but specific events captured on TV, seen in person, read about or heard on the radio?
2. What are some of the most impressive observations/aspects of this team, staff, players, program, etc. that you feel may have gone a bit under reported?
3. Mark Dantonio selected a few true-freshmen to play this season, while still red-shirting most of their classmates. How do you feel about the decisions to activate Shelton, Williams, and Geiger?
4. How many of the fans who wanted Damion Terry to "burn the redshirt" still think that would have been the right thing to do? What does that tell us for the future about fan reactions and early-season perceptions?
5. As for the QB competition, Datonio was accused of was "creating a circus". Was Dantonio being indecisive or was he merely being patient while gathering information, adjusting and verifying? A little of both? What was your take on the situation then vs. now?
6. Michigan State has 18 seniors and will suffer significant losses on defense. Although the Spartans do return good players on defense, I think most analysts will assume a significant drop off in defensive production. Whatever that drop off might be, if there is one, discuss your thoughts on how the experienced offense might help out the defense in 2014. Will it? Can it? Will it be needed?
Responses from MSUSpartan76
(Follow '76 on M-Live)
1. Looking back at the season, what are your favorite two or three specific moments/visions - not stats or general outcomes/results, but specific events captured on TV, seen in person, read about or heard on the radio?
You just had to ask, didn't you! In a season chock full of highlight reel plays, we have to pick and only 2 or 3? Can't be done. The SHORT LIST:
- WMU: Defensive TD, Jarius Jones interception, as he is tackled, he flips it back to Kurtis Drummond who takes it in for the TD.
- OSU: Cook muscling his way in for the TD on a QB keeper.
- OSU: Langford slicing through the heart of the OSU defense for a TD.
- OSU: Spartan Dawgs stopping OSU on 4th and... and again.
- USF: Tyler Hoover leaping over a defender to get the sack. (If readers know of the play and it wasn't Hoover, please let me know in comments)
- UM: Trevon Pendleton's bail out reception for 49 yards on MSU's 1st offensive play.
- OSU: Josaih Price alone in the end zone TD!
But at the top of my list is:
- OSU: Mumphrey 72 yard pass reception taken in for a TD.
2. What are some of the most impressive observations/aspects of this team, staff, players, program, etc. that you feel may have gone a bit under reported?
I keep reading about how O'Connor will be gone since he is not looking to get any playing time with Terry and Cook likely to be the 1 & 2. I recall reading how Terry would bolt for some other school because he was being red shirted. It seems no matter which page I turn to, there is some noise about one Spartan player or another who will be selfish and take his ball and goes home.
Then I look at Andrew Maxwell. He took the decision and stepped up and found other ways to contribute. We are hearing how great Terry was on the scout team preparing the Dawgs for their games. One can run down the roster and find story after story of how these kids put their team and their teammates ahead of themselves. We get glimpses from time to time, but it really is a big story.
If one looks over the past 7 years, there have been a few who left but the turnover is particulary light. The program Mark Dantonio has built, the "monster in East Lansing," has values that go beyond the stadium and practice fields. Family. Work ethic. Academics. Team work. Loyaty. Selflessness. Humbleness. Will to win.
This is all about how to do it right and sadly that is not going to get any headlines.
3. Mark Dantonio selected a few true-freshmen to play this season, while still red-shirting most of their classmates. How do you feel about the decisions to activate Shelton, Williams, and Geiger?
My feelings have nothing to do with this. Coach Dantonio made decisions based on his plans and his vision and team needs as they arose. In general, Coach Dantonio likes to give incoming freshmen a year to assimilate and integrate into the program. He is old school and probably still remembers when there were freshmen teams to do that. There were needs and kids earned the starts. I'm ok with that.
4. How many of the fans who wanted Damion Terry to "burn the redshirt" still think that would have been the right thing to do? What does that tell us for the future about fan reactions and early-season perceptions?
Who cares what the fans think about things they have no influence over and no information on? Ask 100 people for an opinion and you know what you get? 113 opinions. Go back and read the answer to question 3. It applies here, too. To the point, which is, what can we expect in the future from the immature and ill-informed, narrow-minded, single issue mentality fans? More of the same noise and louder.
At the beginning of the season we had many Spartan fans calling for one coach or another to be fired because of this or that. They all thought things should have evolved and progressed to their instant gratification timeline and when it didn't, it had to be the assistant or position coach's fault. Later in the season when UolM was faltering, the chUMps were making exactly the same kind of noise about their assistant and position coaches. 'nuff said.
Coach Dantonio does not listen to the fans and does not allow fan noise to sway his decisions. We are in good hands.
5. As for the QB competition, Datonio was accused of was "creating a circus". Was Dantonio being indecisive or was he merely being patient while gathering information, adjusting and verifying? A little of both? What was your take on the situation then vs. now?
Anyone who raises questions about Head Coach Mark Dantonio's ability to make a plan and see it through is someone who is just trying to cast yet another negative spin on the Spartans. He told us what he wanted to do. He told us what he was looking for. It is the general impatience of the fans and media that colored this into something other than an assessment period. Instant gratification was not there, so it was spun as a controversy rather than the competition that it was. Impatience ruled, so any little molehill was turned into a mountain. Of course the media contributed to this by stirring things up. The media needs controversy, real or fabricated, to get hits that generate advertising revenues. That will never change.
Coach Dantonio was patient and methodical and comprehensive in his evaluations and assessments and in the alterations to the offense for 2013 based on the players that would make it happen. He stayed with his plan even when things were not quite going the way he would have preferred. And the end result? 12-1.
How can you argue with a record setting coach who is now preparing his team for the ROSE BOWL?
6. Michigan State has 18 seniors and will suffer significant losses on defense. Although the Spartans do return good players on defense, I think most analysts will assume a significant drop off in defensive production. Whatever that drop off might be, if there is one, discuss your thoughts on how the experienced offense might help out the defense in 2014. Will it? Can it? Will it be needed?
It is just plain silly to propose a Spartan defense drop off. Having watched 13 games this season and having seen 55 players go in the game against OSU I can say with total confidence that the pipelines are bursting with kids with the desire, the talent, the ability, the drive, and the will to play and win in all 3 phases of the game. Just like we can't get Swenson back or Edinger or Conry or even Muma back, there is always someone who will step up. Sadler was great and he replaced Bates who replace Fields. All three of those were great punters. We look forward now to whoever wins the spot for 2014.
There might be uplevellings by the opponents and certainly the games will be different, but there will not be a Spartan defense drop off. What's more, it is almost certain that the 2014 offense will be "worthy" of sharing the same field with the defense. The offense certainly earned their keep this season.
Why this question? I mean the preface about the defense dropping off and specifically the accurate assessment that media and analysts will spew forth more of this nonsense. When posed versus almost every other team it is answered with, "No probllem. They will just reload." These kinds of media questions and speculations only serve to malign MSU, to reinforce a conjurred mentality of not being able to stand with the best. This is just more of the M4 at their best.
Once again we have to remember the facts. We lost Ringer and Caulcrick; we lost Baker and Bell and Sims and Caper; we lost Jones and Worthy and a whole long list of excellent players and every year we are faced with the same derogatory comments that the Spartan team will just plummet back into mediocrity. 2012 was an anomaly, a transition year that was not well planned in 2011. That will not happen again under Coach Dantonio.
And anyone who does not think 2014 will be as good or better is just a chUMp.
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