The Rose Bowl: Spartans Time To Change The College Football Landscape

Spartan fans need to stop settling for being just being better than mediocre. It is becoming almost epidemic leading up to this Rose Bowl.  There have been a number of us that just want to “enjoy the moment” of reaching the Rose Bowl or those that believe a 12-1 season with a B1G Championship and Rose Bowl are more important than a basketball National Championship.  How can we as a fan base ask everyone else to change their perception of the Spartan Football Program if we can’t even change our own?

I wrote about this prior to the B1G Championship Game.  If you want the rest of the college football world to give you the benefit of the doubt or to get selected to the more respected bowl, you have to win.  And then go out and win again. And again.

Well we did it.  Not only did we go out with the eyes of college football on us and beat the #2 team in the nation but we did so in an impressive manner.  There are those among us that are content now. They are “enjoying the moment” if you will. Now don’t get me wrong: I am ecstatic with the win over OSU.  Absolutely love it. But I am not content. Heck the season is not even over yet!

The win over OSU is going to mean a lot less if we go and get our heads kicked in by Stanford. And God forbid OSU gets pounded by Clemson too. Suddenly that national perception is knocked back to the Stone Age.  

Let’s skip ahead and say we beat Stanford. Does that mean we have arrived?  Everything is all good? In my opinion, there is still work to do.  Iowa won the Orange Bowl in 2009.  The following year Penn State was selected to the Outback Bowl over Iowa, despite Iowa winning the head-to-head battle.  The perception of Iowa remains the same today: a decent program that can put together a magical season every now and again. It takes more than one good season to change the perception of your program.

Those that would take this season (plus a Rose Bowl victory) over a National Title in basketball show why there is a difference between the perception of our basketball program (which is undeniably respected on a national level) and our football program. Look no further than the 2011-2012 basketball season for the proof of this. That year we started off unranked and eventually finished with a share of the B1G regular season, won the B1G Tourney and made it to the Sweet 16.  And yet look at how many of us were disappointed with that outcome because we fell short of the Final Four and ultimately a National Championship.

Now this year the results of the football team are about on par with that basketball season. Unranked to start. Ended up winning the division. Won the B1G Championship. If we beat Stanford we will have some success in the postseason too.  And we are satisfied with that? Are we just that jaded by the success in basketball or are we not demanding enough in football?

Take a second to think about which B1G teams are on that national level that we want to be. Which B1G teams get the respect we want? Ohio State. Wisconsin maybe. U of M’s brand props them up but they have slipped. Same for Nebraska.  And that’s it. But since 1998 when the BCS system was instituted, only Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan State are the only B1G teams to not play in a BCS bowl.  Illinois has made multiple appearances and how do you feel the Illinois program looks nationally?  OSU, Wisconsin, U of M and Nebraska have a ton of appearance and even those 4 have their national perception issues (see OSU getting jumped this year despite not losing).  Being content with just making it to the Rose Bowl and not following up this season with another solid year isn’t going to be enough.

I love the success that we have had this year. It is great to point to 3 of the last 4 years with 11 or more wins.  But at the end of the day, I am still hungry. I still want more.  I want what Bama has because they are disappointed by their one loss season. I want what Texas has where they fire their coach who was one win away from a conference championship because they are not playing for National Championships.  I want the term “magical season” to morph into “that is MSU doing what MSU does.”

Those changes take time but we have another opportunity to make a statement in the Rose Bowl and then again against Oregon early next year. So here we are with a seat at the table. Let’s make some noise instead of just enjoying being here.

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Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game Post-Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown to Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

I shall repeat this again:
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In the Countdown to Roses post I acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

The biggest question going into the game was which would win: the irresistable force (OSU rushing attack and OSU scoring offense) or the immovable object (MSU rushing defense and MSU scoring defense)?

It would seem the OSU rushing attack won that part of the contest being held back merely 48 yds below average while the MSU rushing defense was pushed around by 198 yards more than their season average. On the other hand, the OSU scoring offense was held to 24 pts, 50% of their season average while the MSU defense was bullied 12 pts (100%) above their season average. The irresistable force was not so irresistable and the immovable object was bent and slipped, but did not break.

In the statistical sense, OSU rushing was held to 85% of their season average, OSU passing was 48% of average, total OSU offense was 70% of average, and OSU scoring was 50% of average. So while the MSU defense got bullied by the OSU rushing (6.8 yards per rush) and scoring, OSU was ultimately stopped.

On the flip side, while MSU rushing was held to 72% of their season average, the MSU passing attack was magnificent at 157% of their season average and posted the best passing yards of the season. MSU total yards was also above average (115%) and so was the scoring (116%). The much maligned MSU passing game gained a respectable 12.7 yards per completion.

Pregame assessments by the media and fans questioned whether or not the MSU defense could stop the "explosive" OSU offense. It seems it did, but OSU had the edge. OSU gained 273 yards rushing, including Miller breaking out for 48, 21, and 24 yards (the other 18 Miller rushes totalled 49 yards, 2.7 yd/carry). But, the MSU defense stood tall and stopped Miller and the OSU rush when it needed to, more than once. OSU was 1 of 10 in 3rd down conversions and 0 of 2 in 4th down attempts.

Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

The B1G Ten Conference Championship

Leaders Division Champion Ohio St. 12-0/8-0

versus

Legends Division Champion Michigan St. 11-1/8-0

This is the last of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Leaders Division:
Ohio State barely eked out the win versus Michigan. UM Coach Brady Hoke elected to go for the win but a Buckeye interception in the 2 point conversion play ended the threat of a major upset.
Legends Division:
Michigan State faced Minnesota in a smashmouth game 14-3.

Ohio State vs MSU: What does it look like? From the NCAA data we see:

Ohio St. rush offense (No. 2) 321.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 171.8 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. rush defense (No. 1) 64.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 156.7 yd/gm

Ohio St. pass offense (No. 83) 209.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 233.1 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. pass defense (No. 9) 172.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 222.1 yd/gm

Ohio St. scoring offense (No. 3) 48.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.4 pt/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. scoring defense (No. 4) 11.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.8 pt/gm

Michigan St. rush offense (No. 47) 186.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. rush defense (No. 5) 100 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 159.6 yd/gm

Michigan St. pass offense (No. 95) 194 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 223.3 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. pass defense (No. 98) 255.8 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 240.9 yd/gm

Michigan St. scoring offense (No. 63) 29.4 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.8 pt/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. scoring defense (No. 18) 20.3 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.7 pt/gm

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of scoring a TD less than their season average and (2) the Buckeye offense will be seriously tested as will the Spartan defense and this is the story of the game. Note that the OSU passing game generally is held to fewer yards than their opponents' season averages (95%). Also OSU opponents generally put up better than season average passing yards when playing OSU (104%).

The data above, however, does little to tell the whole story. What follows is a statistical analysis of the performace of each team through the season. Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used.

The biggest question of the game is which wins, the irresistable force or the immovable object? In otherwords, the OSU rushing offense versus the MSU rushing defense or the MSU scoring defense versus the OSU scoring offense. Both teams have had claims of "inflated stats" made due to having "played nobody." Is this true?

OSU has played 12 teams. Listed with each team is their season average rushing defense and the performance of the OSU offense versus that team.

Buffalo               159.8 163%
San Diego St.     132.9 198%
California           188.6 176%
Florida A&M     195.6 198%
Wisconsin          101.3 190%
Northwestern     167.3 148%
Iowa                   120.8 226%
Penn St.              144.0 283%
Purdue                235.4 147%
Illinois                238.6 185%
Indiana               237.8 131%
Michigan            139.4 282%
Michigan St.        64.8

The performance Mean Value is 193.9% (MV) which means that OSU typically rushes for almost twice what their opponent typically allows. The Standard Deviation (SD) is 47.0%, which means the distribution of the data is fairly wide indicating the performance is somewhat inconsistent. A smaller SD indicates a higher consistency.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior 3 games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 8 of 18 performance metrics. Given the nature of the analysis, a 30% to 40% success rate would be expected.

So, OSU has a performance MV of 193.9% with a SD of 47.0%. Applied to the MSU average rushing defense means OSU could rush for 95.2 to 156.1 yds with the most likely result being 125.6 yds. The probability associated with a MV +/- 1 SD is 68.4%.

Looking at it from the Spartan defense point of view we see:

Western Mich.    116.2   9%
South Fla.              96.8  92%
Youngstown St.  195.4  29%
Notre Dame        149.3  52%
Iowa                    188.6  12%
Indiana                201.8  46%
Purdue                  67.1  98%
Illinois                139.0  18%
Michigan            130.8 -37%
Nebraska             221.7  82%
Northwestern      172.4  46%
Minnesota           200.9  58%
Ohio St.               321.3     

The performance MV is 42.2% with a SD of 37.1%. Applying this to the OSU rushing average (with the same assumptions) shows MSU holding the OSU rushing offense to 16.1 to 254.8 yds with the most likely result being 135.5 yds.

To reconcile the 2 results we take the intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-). This gives the following prediction:

Prediction: Ohio St. 131 yards rushing (+25/-35 yards)

That is how it has been done for the prior 3 games. Not wishing to bore everyone with excrutiating detail, here are the rest of the predictions. They all employ the same methodolgy and NCAA data.

Prediction: Ohio St. 164 yards passing (+54/-52 yards)
Prediction: Ohio St. 20 points (+6/-6 points)

Prediction: MSU 112 yards rushing (+20/-33 yards)
Prediction: MSU 212 yards passing (+67/-66 yards)
Prediction: MSU 21 points (+10/-9)

High/Low Ranges
OSU 26, MSU 12
MSU 31, OSU 14

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
OSU 20 vs MSU 21

Additional Reading:
Review Game 1
Review Game 2
Review Game 3
MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)
MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)
Minnesota at MSU (Anaylsis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

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