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Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

The B1G Ten Conference Championship
Leaders Division Champion Ohio St. 12-0/8-0
Legends Division Champion Michigan St. 11-1/8-0

This is the last of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Leaders Division:
Ohio State barely eked out the win versus Michigan. UM Coach Brady Hoke elected to go for the win but a Buckeye interception in the 2 point conversion play ended the threat of a major upset.
Legends Division:
Michigan State faced Minnesota in a smashmouth game 14-3.

Ohio State vs MSU: What does it look like? From the NCAA data we see:

Ohio St. rush offense (No. 2) 321.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 171.8 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. rush defense (No. 1) 64.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 156.7 yd/gm

Ohio St. pass offense (No. 83) 209.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 233.1 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. pass defense (No. 9) 172.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 222.1 yd/gm

Ohio St. scoring offense (No. 3) 48.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.4 pt/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. scoring defense (No. 4) 11.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.8 pt/gm

Michigan St. rush offense (No. 47) 186.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. rush defense (No. 5) 100 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 159.6 yd/gm

Michigan St. pass offense (No. 95) 194 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 223.3 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. pass defense (No. 98) 255.8 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 240.9 yd/gm

Michigan St. scoring offense (No. 63) 29.4 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.8 pt/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. scoring defense (No. 18) 20.3 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.7 pt/gm

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of scoring a TD less than their season average and (2) the Buckeye offense will be seriously tested as will the Spartan defense and this is the story of the game. Note that the OSU passing game generally is held to fewer yards than their opponents' season averages (95%). Also OSU opponents generally put up better than season average passing yards when playing OSU (104%).

The data above, however, does little to tell the whole story. What follows is a statistical analysis of the performace of each team through the season. Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used.

The biggest question of the game is which wins, the irresistable force or the immovable object? In otherwords, the OSU rushing offense versus the MSU rushing defense or the MSU scoring defense versus the OSU scoring offense. Both teams have had claims of "inflated stats" made due to having "played nobody." Is this true?

OSU has played 12 teams. Listed with each team is their season average rushing defense and the performance of the OSU offense versus that team.

Buffalo               159.8 163%
San Diego St.     132.9 198%
California           188.6 176%
Florida A&M     195.6 198%
Wisconsin          101.3 190%
Northwestern     167.3 148%
Iowa                   120.8 226%
Penn St.              144.0 283%
Purdue                235.4 147%
Illinois                238.6 185%
Indiana               237.8 131%
Michigan            139.4 282%
Michigan St.        64.8

The performance Mean Value is 193.9% (MV) which means that OSU typically rushes for almost twice what their opponent typically allows. The Standard Deviation (SD) is 47.0%, which means the distribution of the data is fairly wide indicating the performance is somewhat inconsistent. A smaller SD indicates a higher consistency.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior 3 games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 8 of 18 performance metrics. Given the nature of the analysis, a 30% to 40% success rate would be expected.

So, OSU has a performance MV of 193.9% with a SD of 47.0%. Applied to the MSU average rushing defense means OSU could rush for 95.2 to 156.1 yds with the most likely result being 125.6 yds. The probability associated with a MV +/- 1 SD is 68.4%.

Looking at it from the Spartan defense point of view we see:

Western Mich.    116.2   9%
South Fla.              96.8  92%
Youngstown St.  195.4  29%
Notre Dame        149.3  52%
Iowa                    188.6  12%
Indiana                201.8  46%
Purdue                  67.1  98%
Illinois                139.0  18%
Michigan            130.8 -37%
Nebraska             221.7  82%
Northwestern      172.4  46%
Minnesota           200.9  58%
Ohio St.               321.3     

The performance MV is 42.2% with a SD of 37.1%. Applying this to the OSU rushing average (with the same assumptions) shows MSU holding the OSU rushing offense to 16.1 to 254.8 yds with the most likely result being 135.5 yds.

To reconcile the 2 results we take the intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-). This gives the following prediction:

Prediction: Ohio St. 131 yards rushing (+25/-35 yards)

That is how it has been done for the prior 3 games. Not wishing to bore everyone with excrutiating detail, here are the rest of the predictions. They all employ the same methodolgy and NCAA data.

Prediction: Ohio St. 164 yards passing (+54/-52 yards)
Prediction: Ohio St. 20 points (+6/-6 points)

Prediction: MSU 112 yards rushing (+20/-33 yards)
Prediction: MSU 212 yards passing (+67/-66 yards)
Prediction: MSU 21 points (+10/-9)

High/Low Ranges
OSU 26, MSU 12
MSU 31, OSU 14

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
OSU 20 vs MSU 21

Additional Reading:
Review Game 1
Review Game 2
Review Game 3
MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)
MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)
Minnesota at MSU (Anaylsis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

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