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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: Rose Bowl Pre-Game Edition

BIG TEN CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 

Front-Burner was be published in three parts between the B1G Championship and the Rose Bowl

Part 1. B1G Championship Game Discussion
Part 2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
           2A. ATownAndDown Feature
           2B. MSUSpartan76 Feature
Part 3. Rose Bowl Discussion (This Edition)

Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
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Part 3 Discussion Questions (Readers COMMENT below the post.)
1. Does seeing the chUMps get spanked by a 7-5 Kansas State team in the BWW Bowl take anything away from the dominating win the Spartans notched against them this year?

2. To beat Ohio State, Connor Cook had to play the game of his life. What are the Spartans chances if he just has an average game against Stanford? How does the loss of Max Bullough factor in your answer?

3. I felt that Spartans "been there before" would help them in the B1G Championship Game. The shoe is now on the other foot as Stanford knows this Rose Bowl Week spectacle very well. Added in with other intangibles like time zone, travel, warm weather would you consider a win at the Rose Bowl a bigger upset than beating Ohio State? Why?

4. What are the chances that Stanford wins and it's not even close? How about the idea that MSU wins and it's not even close; more or less likely than Stanford winning by a wide margin?
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Panelist Responses

1. Does seeing the chUMps get spanked by a 7-5 Kansas State team in the BWW Bowl take anything away from the dominating win the Spartans notched against them this year?

SpartanMan82 (Tale of Two Programs, By SM82)
No, not at all, just check the record. Michigan was 6-1 when they met Michigan State in Spartan Stadium, and since that game, UM could only win one more time, in triple-overtime. MSU also gave them their worst loss of the season.

The Spartans crushed the Wolverines, in one game destroying their entire season. Kansas State was just the team that happened to draw them in the bowl game, and dispatched them accordingly.

Every team that played Michigan after November 2 had a clear "green-print" for how to pound on the Bluebloods. The KSU win was a validation of the November 2 doomsday game for UM, along with all of their other losses along the way.

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Not at all. Bowl games are fickle creatures. There is so much that can impact the outcome that to read too far into the tea leaves is silly. When MSU faced U of M earlier this year they were a different team than the one that showed up to the bowl game. They had a starting QB and still had hopes of winning the division. You saw them stumble hard down the stretch and even saw the desperation of Hoke and Co. to spark something by going for 2 instead of tying the OSU game late. Not getting those 2 points and losing their starting QB really took the wind out of a defeated U of M team's sails by the time they faced KSU.

Since we are on the subject here is a fun factoid for you: RichRod's records at U of M were 3-9; 5-7; and 7-6 and he was fired. Hoke has gone 11-2; 8-5; and 7-6 but the Michigan Men are only at a dull roar about firing him. It would appear that RichRod was trending up and lost his job and Hoke is trending down off of what RichRod built but not a lot of folks speaking up. U of M has talent but Hoke is going to have to fall into something to have success with how fast he lost control of this team.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Michigan who? The bar for Michigan State is set way much higher than just merely beating UolM. Also, that game was expected. It was predicted in this post: The Fall of UolM. The Spartans exposed UolM for what it was, something the media is just no catching on to. So, no. The KSU loss in the wings bowl was just another progression in the downward spiral.

A chUMp posted on MLive.com the following (refers to UolM wins versus MSU):
1970s 9-1
1980s 8-2
1990s 6-4
2000s 7-3
2010s 1-3

I think the trend line is obvious in that data. It does deliberately mask the 5-2 record Coach Dantonio owns and the 1-2 record owned by the chUMp coach.
---
Insert by Retrun to Glory, M-Live poster, RosesAreGreen responded to the chUMp's post and others like it with the following:
RosesAreGreen
TO ALL MICHIGAN FANS WHO HAVE POSTED BELOW:

UM has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 1986.
MSU has one 12 win season and 2 11 win seasons since 2009.
Michigan HAS NEVER had back to back 11 win seasons.
Michigan HAS NEVER won 13 games in a season as MSU has a chance to do vs. Stanford.
UM's cycle of continuous improvement vs. MSU since the Wolvies last Big 10 championship season in football (10 years and counting....)

2004 - 45 points
2005 - 34 points
2006 - 31 points
2007 - 28 points
2008 - 21 points
2009 - 20 points
2010 - 17 points
2011 - 14 points
2012 - 12 points
2013 - 6 points

Hoke's 3 teams have been outscored by MSU 67-32 (minus 35)
Rich Rod's 3 teams were outscored by MSU 95-58 (minus 37)

That's progress!!! Keep up the good work!

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2. To beat Ohio State, Connor Cook had to play the game of his life. What are the Spartans chances if he just has an average game against Stanford? How does the loss of Max Bullough factor in your answer?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
To beat Ohio State? Certainly Connor Cook had a career game and certainly that was a significant contribution, but I do not believe it was the passing yards and much as it was the resilience of the team that ultimately got the win.

Connor Cook will have the best game he can, come 5:00 pm (EST) on 1/1/14. We are fortunate that the Cardinal pass defense is not the best the Spartans have faced this season. Statistically, it is only marginally better than tO$U, which makes it the 11th best faced this season. tO$U, IU, Northwestern are ranked lower. The Stanford pass defense, statistically, is comparable to Youngstown State. Just as a point of reference.

Max? Max will be on the field in spirit. You can count on that.

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
I think calling it the "game of his life" is a bit a of a stretch. From a QB rating stand point it was his 5th best game of the season against a defense that ranked 11th in the B1G in passing yards allowed and 9th in the B1G in QB rating allowed. It was a solid performance on a big stage which is always good to see a guy not buckle under pressure. With that said, I am firmly in the mindset that with Bullough suspended everyone else (coaches, offense and defense) need to step their game up that much. Cook needs have another solid performance and maybe even better than B1G Championship Game. The offense needs to sustain drives to give the defense a rest from Stanford's physical offense. The offense might have to put a few extra points on the board. The offense also needs to not turn the ball over and give Stanford extra shots at the defense. Cook is integral to those things and I think giving extra opportunities to Stanford is going to be a bad thing.
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3. I felt that Spartans "been there before" would help them in the B1G Championship Game. The shoe is now on the other foot as Stanford knows this Rose Bowl Week spectacle very well. Added in with other intangibles like time zone, travel, warm weather would you consider a win at the Rose Bowl a bigger upset than beating Ohio State? Why?

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
I don't know if it will be a bigger upset. I mean it was more than OSU folks that were banking on that win. There were businesses marketing travel stuff to OSU fans to the National Championship Game even before they played us. But as far as statements go, it will be big. MSU is stepping into the heart of Pac 12 country to play a team that is highly rated and used to the atmosphere. ESPN has been pushing the 100th Rose Bowl too so there will be a lot of eyes on this one. Also, its one thing to beat the team that is perceived to be the cream of the weak B1G and its another to beat a team that is perceived to be the cream of the Pac 12. So while you are not stopping a 2 year undefeated streak and ending a teams National Championship dreams, you are still making a statement that we are legit.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Well, yea, there is that big parade and Disneyland and warm weather, but the boys in green have been faced with distractions many times now. It's not like this is their first trip out of State and it certainly is not like this is their first bowl game. Would I consider it a bigger upset? To start with, I predicted the MSU win over OSU and I have predicted a MSU win over Stanford so I really can not answer this question in the context of an upset.

But it certainly will be the sweeter victory.
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4. What are the chances that Stanford wins and it's not even close? How about the idea that MSU wins and it's not even close; more or less likely than Stanford winning by a wide margin?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)
Stanford 24 versus Michigan State 35

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)
Neither team is known for running away from opponents. Both teams have only 4 wins this season of 20 points or more. Both teams also like to play a physical running offense and when they can get a lead in the second half that running game gets stronger. Defenses start to wear down and the clock starts to run down. Opponents become one dimensional and your pass rushers start pinning their ears back. So neither team runs away in the scoring column because they limit their own opportunities with this style. But because of the way they play a 10 point lead can seem like a 20 point lead.

I don't think either team opens up a large margin. I think MSU getting out to a lead early is going to help. The loss of Bullough is big because of the number of facets it impacts. Replacing a 6-4, 250 lbs guy in the middle with a 6-1, 225 is going to mean that guy is going to wear down faster than Bullough against a relentless rushing attack. If we can get Stanford in a position where they can't run as often as they would like that is going to save that guy. And if that guy in the middle can't hold up alone and needs support, Stanford has smart enough coaches to attack where those guys are supposed to be.

In my opinion, that is the linchpin for the entire game: what does MSU have to do to take pressure off that position? If the offense can get out and put some pressure on Stanford to try and move the ball down the field quicker that is one way. If Narduzzi can out chess match Stanford's attack so they are chasing holes and weaknesses that are not there any more that is another. Heck if the combo of Elsworth and Harris can somehow hold up over 60 minutes of pounding that works too. But if Stanford can attack where it wants to attack and pick up chuck yards, they will take advantage of that all day. Look at what they did against Oregon: 66 rushes and 13 passes. That is their goal and we need to figure out how to not allow it.


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