Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern

In Part 2 of The Contenders, updates to the conference rankings and probable matchups in the march towards Indianapolis were discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they next have to go to Evanston and come back with the win.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated.

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of a season average score and (2) the Wildcat offense will be stopped and the final score might not be close at all.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.

Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?



NW rush offense (No. 53) 184.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 146.8 yd/gm
...versus …
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 57.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 154 yd/gm

Northwestern has an average rush offense. The Wildcats have been held below 100 yards in 3 games and all of those were versus conference contenders (OSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota). Versus Nebraska, the Wildcat rushing game did well above average (245 yds). In contests with lesser opponents, NW has gained 200-plus yds including one 300-yd game. Except for Nebraska, which was held to 76% of their season average, the Spartan Dawgs have held their opponents to under 100 yds and 7 of 10 games to less than 50% (ND was 52%) of their season rushing averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 39.4%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 2/5 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 39.1%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Northwestern to between 0.3% and 78.5% of their season average, which translates to 0.5 yds to 144.7 yds with the most likely result being 82.6 yds.
The Wildcat rush offense performance has a MV of 121.6% with a SD of +/- 39.4%. The Wildcats versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 47.1 and 92.3 yds with the most likely result being 69.7 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 47.1 to 92.3 yards. The highest probability range is 67.1 to 72.6 yards rushing.

Prediction, Northwestern yards rushing: 71 (+21/-24) yards.

NW pass offense (No. 86) 207.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 221.4 yd/gm
...versus …
MSU pass defense (No. 5) 171.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 226.4 yd/gm

Aside from Youngstown State, Northwestern has the most potent passing attack the Spartans have faced this season, so far. 5 of 10 Spartan opponents have eclipsed the 200 yard mark. The 10  Northwestern opponents, taken together, averaged 221.4 yards passing allowed over the season and (as a group) held the Wildcats to only 20 yd/gm less than their aggregate pass defense average.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 69.7% with a SD of +/- 29.9%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Wildcat passing game to 82.5 to 206.6 yds with the most likely result being 144.6 yds.
The Wildcat pass offense performance has a MV of 91.8% with a SD of +/- 36.0%, which translates to Northwestern likely to pass for between 95.4 and 218.8 yds with the most likely result being 157.1 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 95.4 to 206.6 yards. The highest probability range is 144.6 to 157.1 yards passing.

Prediction, Northwestern yards passing: 151 (+56/-56) yds.

NW scoring offense (No. 78) 27.1 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 25.1 pt/gm
...versus …
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 13.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.4 pt/gm

Northwestern scoring was high in the 1st 5 games (30 to 48 pts scored) but has dropped substantially in the 2nd 5 games. This drop off reflects the 6-game losing streak currently owned by NW. NW has scored 20 or more points only the Nebraska game since the drop of began. Michigan State had held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana and Nebraska, both of which scored 4 TDs.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 45.4% with a SD of +/- 26.7%, which translates to Wildcats scoring between 5.1 to 19.5 pts with the most likely result being 12.3 pts.
The Wildcat scoring offense performance has a MV of 106.2% with a SD of +/- 46.9%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Wildcats to between 7.8 and 20.2 pts with the most likely outcome being 14.0 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 7.8 to 19.5 points. The highest probability range is 12.3 to 14.0 points.

Prediction, Northwestern scoring: 13 (+7/-3) pts.

MSU rush offense (No. 48) 188.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 183.9 yd/gm
...versus …
NW rush defense (No. 68) 165.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 203.7 yd/gm

All of Northwestern's opponents, except California, rushed for over 100 yards with Ohios State and Wisconsin eclipsing the 200 yd mark. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 106.3% with a SD of +/- 30.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 124.7 to 226.5 yds rushing with the most likely result being 175.6 yds.
The Wildcat rush defense performance has a MV of 82.3% with a SD of +/- 17.6%, which translates to the Wildcats holding MSU to 121.7 to 188.1 yards rushing with the most likely result being 154.9 yds.

As an item of note, a standard deviation of 17.6% indicates a very consistent performance, game to game.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 124.7 to 188.1 yards. The highest probability range is 154.9 to 175.6 yards rushing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 165 (+23/-40) yds.

MSU pass offense (No. 96) 189.2 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 224.9 yd/gm
...versus …
NW pass defense (No. 94) 247.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 197.7 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 5 of 10 games with one of those being less than 100 yards (S. Florida). All but 2 of Northwestern's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (2 for over 300 yards) and the 2 sub-200 yd passing opponents were in the last 5 games.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 84.7% with a SD of +/- 28.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 138.2 to 280.9 yds passing with the most likely result being 209.5 yds.
The Wildcat pass defense performance has a MV of 111.8% with a SD of +/- 28.3%, which translates to the Wildcats allowing MSU to 157.9 to 265.1 yds passing with the most likely result being 211.5 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 157.9 to 265.1 yards. The highest probability range is 209.5 to 211.5 yards passing.

Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 211 (+54/-53) yds.

MSU scoring offense (No. 53) 30.9 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.7 pt/gm
...versus …
NW scoring defense (No. 61) 26.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 31.1 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 4 games. NW has held opponents to 20 points or less in 3 games and has given up 40 points just once.

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 109.9% with a SD of +/- 53.1%, which translates to scoring between 14.8 to 42.5 pts versus the Wildcat defense with the most likely result being 28.7 pts.
The Northwestern scoring defense performance has a MV of 86.4% with a SD of +/- 21.1%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 20.2 and 33.2 pts with the most likely outcome being 26.7 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 20.2 to 33.2 points. The highest probability range is 26.7 to 28.7 points.

Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+5/-8) pts.

The win loss percentage of Northwestern's opponents on the season is 0.6177 (including a 10-1 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4554 (including a 8-3 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MSU 24 at NW 13
(1st sigma range: MSU 16-29 at NW 10-20)

Min/Max extremes:
MSU 16 at NW 20
MSU 29 at NW 10

Given the Wildcats have "fallen off the cliff" it is not improbable that MSU wins in a shutout. On the other hand, the Wildcats have been a spoiler for the Spartans too often in recent history to just count this game as a win before it is played. Northwestern was ranked early in the season, too, which means they have potential to play better than they have during their recent skid.

Post game comments are here.

Tweet ------------- Remember to check Spartan Headline links, updated real time, at the bottom of the page (Web version only). -------------- Please click on COMMENTS below the post to enter and view reader comments. ***If you are receiving this post via automated email, ***you need to go to the site to view headline links and embedded videos in this post: http://spartanresource.blogspot.com/ (Web version only)