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Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Countdown To Roses - The Contenders Game 2

This is the next installation of Countdown To Roses - The Contenders

10 games in the books with 2 remaining. What does it look like in the B1G Ten race to Indianapolis? This is part 2 of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Ohio St.       10-0/6-0
Wisconsin      8-2/5-1
Penn St.         6-4/3-3
Indiana          4-6/2-4
Illinois           3-7/0-6
Purdue           1-9/0-6

Michigan St.   9-1/6-0
Minnesota       8-2/4-2
Nebraska        7-3/4-2
Michigan        7-3/3-3
Iowa                6-4/3-3
Northwestern  4-6/0-6

In the Leaders Division, OSU has the tiebreaker over Wisconsin. It looks rather bleak for the Badgers. For Wisconsin to make the trip to Indianapolis, the Buckeyes have to lose their last 2 and the Badgers have to win out.

Ohio State faces Indiana, and Michigan. It is hard to find 2 losses in there.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.5500 (11-9).

Wisconsin faces Minnesota and Penn St. Minnesota is hanging on the fringe of this discussion and could very well be a spoiler for the Badger dream of a 3-peat.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.7000 (14-6).

In the Legends Division, MSU has a 2 game lead, at least a share of the Legends title and all but a lock on a trip to Indianapolis. Michigan State faces Northwestern and Minnesota. None of those are certain wins for the Spartans.
Aggregate opponent W-L% for the remaining games is 0.6000 (12-8).

Minnesota with 2 conference losses is on the outside looking in and looking for some serious help. With games versus Wisconsin and at Michigan St. is it even possible the Golden Gophers can run the table, which is exactly what they have to do to go to Lucas Oil Stadium. They do need help from MSU, which would have to also lose at Northwestern for the Golden Gophers to get the needed tiebreaker. With a win over the Badgers, the Golden Gophers become a legitimate contender going into the final game in E. Lansing.

Should the Nebraska win out, they could share the division title, but the Spartans hold the tiebreaker. The Cornhuskers are no longer contenders.

In the parts that follow, statistical analysis techniques will be used to give insight into each team's performance and how they match up with the Spartans.

MSU 41 at Nebraska 28
MSU at Nebraska Post-Game
MSU at Northwestern
Minnesota at MSU
Ohio State or Wisconsin vs MSU

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