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Friday, October 16, 2015


The betting lines out of Las Vegas are so often accurate that it's hard to brush them off as meaningless. But it's always a index of public opinion, as determined by the people who want to spend money on gambling. In my view, and in the view of most authors on this web site, the MSU vs UM football game is a toss-up, a draw, a dead-heat, with no true favorite.

That said, you should "take the points" from
any Michigan Fan willing to give them to you.

If you're thinking of betting, and you can get the Vegas Line, GO FOR IT! If you can, try to cajole the glossy-eyed chUMp into offering you 10, 12, even 14 points. The Spartans may or may not win the game, but you might as well cash-in on the Blue Fever that has swept our State all week long.

Now, let's face some facts. IF Michigan plays just exactly the way they have played the past few weeks, and IF Michigan State plays just exactly the way they have played the past few weeks, THEN the Paul Bunyan trophy will stay in Ann Arbor this weekend. But we don't think the Spartans will deliver an empty effort on Saturday afternoon.

  • MSU has played this game ferociously for 12 consecutive seasons
  • This annual match-up is a program goal for Mark Dantonio
  • The MSU Offense has been coach-limited through the first six games

For the reasons listed above, and others, we believe it's fair to expect to see a somewhat different Michigan State team than we've seen in the latter-half of most games this season. We think the early-game Spartans more closely resemble what we expect to see in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon.

We believe "the Lion is coming out of the cage" in this match-up, and while that won't guarantee a victory, it may render the recent past performance record somewhat meaningless in predicting the nature of this game. By comparison, we believe that Michigan has been putting on the best show they could muster in each game this season. There are few signs that Jim Harbaugh has been "holding back" or "letting up" in any game so far this year. Bully for him, we can only wish our coaches had been so aggressive as to light up the scoreboard all through each game, rather than only at the beginnings of most games.

But those games do not necessarily transpose well to this game. This game is up for grabs, either team is about as likely to win it. MSUSpartan76 said it outright. ATownAndDown said it by not saying it. The Spartan Injury Report, along with early success by the Wolverines, have essentially dissolved the pre-season point-spread on this game, which was originally Green by 5-10 points. Each team has multiple pathways to success.

Consider some of the odd variables that would ALL have to sway towards Michigan for them to win:

  • UM has never covered a spread against Mark Dantonio
  • MSU is undefeated since 1959 against a first-year Michigan Coach
  • The Spartans are 10-8 against UM with a Bullough on the team

The Vegas Line seems to be inflated due to the deep pockets and big mouths of so many Bluebloods with pent-up anger and self-loathing about their Seven-Year Itch. The line jumped by three points only five minutes after it opened, proving that there was no "groundswell of support" for UM, just a bunch of rich gamblers infatuated with the Wolverines. We're confident that your money will be well-spent on the green side of the spread.

But we can't say for sure who will win the game.
It's too close to call.

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1 comment:

  1. And the media goes with the Vegas money odds as a prediction for the game, often without saying the "favored by" is the Vegas money line.

    While many writers do offer game predictions and often through provoking analysis of each team, they are the diamonds. The rough just goes with UolM favored by 10 over MSU. Or whatever it is at the moment.

    And this is why we do this website.


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