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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Bleacher Report Spartan writer is over the top optimistic

From Bleacher Report... (not available in Resource Center)

ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 01: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Michigan State Spartans hands the ball off to Edwin Baker #4 during the Capitol One Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide at the Florida Citrus Bowl on January 1, 2011 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

As usual, a lot of pundits are picking Michigan State to disappoint this season. Most aren’t saying that Michigan State will do poorly; instead, they are saying that the Spartans simply won’t have as good of a season as last year. I’m going the other way and predicting another double-digit victory season, and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Michigan State starts slow, with easy games lined up against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. With that crushing loss to Central Michigan just two years ago still on many Spartans' mind, don’t expect Sparty to drop these two. Both of these will be 50ish-20ish Michigan State.

The first real challenge, and perhaps in some ways the most dangerous one, is at Notre Dame. This vicious, long-running and largely even rivalry will be a major test for both teams. If the Spartans lose here, it might deflate team confidence and contribute to later losses.

More importantly, the Fighting Irish will test what has long been Michigan State's Achilles heel, the secondary. Thankfully, this unit is looking to be quite strong and I expect them to hold out against the Irish in a hard fought game and etch out a narrow victory. A loss wouldn’t be a surprise, however, as this will be an explosive team.

Either way, expect a high scoring game with a key turn over or two by our secondary. The teams will trade the lead, but the Spartans come out on top, 38-35.

Next, a quick Chippewa snack.Central Michigan will likely have another down year and Michigan State will make quick work of their MAC brethren, 42-21 Spartans.

Then, an all-important visit to Ohio State. If this were at Spartan Stadium, I would already be placing my bank account on a Spartan victory. Ohio State will have a down year due to all of the off-field distractions, the loss of some of their best players for the first five games and unexpected changes at quarterback and head coach.

Still, this is the Horseshoe stadium and the Buckeyes will defend their turf. Ohio State will get the first score, but Michigan State will take the next two. It will be a hard-fought battle with Ohio State giving its all, but Michigan State will come out in a narrow six-point victory. Expect some key stops from our defense. Spartans win, 21-17.

Michigan will come in with all the swagger in the world. There will be the normal trash talking and arrogance on both sides, and the game will be hard fought. Continue reading by clicking on the jump below...

In the end home field advantage, and the fact that this current Spartan squad will refuse to be the squad to lose the win streak against the Wolverines will push us over the top. I see a 14-point victory, with the wide margin coming in the second half, 34-21 Michigan State.

Thank the football gods that Michigan State’s battle with the Wisconsin Badgers is in East Lansing. If it were in Madison it would be an automatic loss. No one beats the Badgers at home—doesn’t matter if you’re the best team in the country (just ask Ohio State). With this being in East Lansing I have faith that the Spartans can overcome the Badgers, 27-20.

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Then there is the visit to Nebraska. Michigan State will roll into Memorial Stadium feeling good and perhaps be a bit arrogant. Unfortunately, they will leave humbled after crumbling before Nebraska’s stellar defense and an offense that I expect to jell by midseason. Seven-point loss for MSU, 24-17 Nebraska.

Michigan State will take its disappointment out on Minnesota. While the Gophers will show some signs of strength and stabilization under new coach Kill, they will not be able to keep up with the Spartans. Spartans win, 34-21

Iowa will be having a middling season again, but they will give their all against the Spartans. This time, however, Michigan State will come in with a chip on their shoulder after last year’s embarrassment in Iowa City. Michigan State will pull out a narrow six-point victory in a hard-fought battle. The defense will make some key stops to hold onto the lead. Spartans win, 31-27.

Indiana will continue to be Indiana, though they will show some flashes of potential throughout the season. I expect them to put in a surprisingly good game against a tired Michigan State team but lose in the end. Spartans 35-28.

And then the season ends in Chicago (OK, fine it's Evanston) against Northwestern, who will give us hell. Northwestern will be solid this year. They will have surprised Nebraska or Iowa, hopefully not Michigan State. Beating Michigan? That one won't be a shocker either way. They will also hold several other quality wins. Northwestern will jump to an early lead but Michigan State will surge past them, 41-34.

That leads to a 11-1 season. Will Michigan State make it to the Big Ten Championship Game with this record? Yes, because Nebraska will drop two in-conference games, giving us the lead and a rematch with the Badgers. We win again and this Spartans team goes down as one of the best of all time, landing a trip to the Rose Bowl. It’ll be a low score, 20-14 Michigan State.

If not for that pesky loss to Nebraska, we would find ourselves in the National Championship, but a Rose Bowl is good enough.

Is this an optimistic preview? By all means. The difference between an 11-1 season and an 8-4 season is razor thin this year. For one, we NEED the offensive line step up, especially against tough defenses. Don’t believe me? See last year’s losses to Alabama and Iowa. We also NEED this team to stay focused.

Worse, there seems to be a lot of chatter about Rose Bowls and National Championships among our players already—if our players start looking too far ahead and lose track of what’s in front of them we are sure to drop some games. If the Spartans get cocky and start overlooking their opponents, be prepared for losses against Northwestern, Michigan and other teams we should be able to beat.

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Michigan State Football: Like this team?

24 Comments

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

So what do you guys think? Honest opinions how are the Spartans going to do this year?

Dan Hess posted 4 days ago

Not only is this preview hilariously optimistic, it's also hilariously inaccurate.

"[Northwestern] will have surprised either Wisconsin, Ohio State or Nebraska by this point." -- Of those three teams, Northwestern only plays Nebraska this year. Come on.

Did you even do ANY research on the other teams before boldly prophesying that MSU will win them all?

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

or perhaps a better question, did you bother reading the whole article before commenting? Why not read the second to last paragraph where I openly admit that this is an "optimistic" prediction and that this could very easily break as an 8-4 team.

Next time son, read the whole article before commenting.

And you are right about Northwestern, you caught me sleeping, my apologies. I guess my mind hasn't still fully wrapped around the divisions concept where we don't play a lot of teams each year.

Thomas Nigel posted 4 days ago

MSU will not go anywhere near 11-1 this year if as you indicate YSU can put twenty-some points on the board.

Dantonio has assembled what is arguably the best defense in his five years as MSU's head coach, and should see a reduction in points allowed from last year's 22.31 ppg. average. Based on the scores you are projecting that point total is going up, which would indicate a complete failure on his and his defensive staffs part of being capable defensive coaches. And the secondary is not the defenses Achilles Heel, it's the linebackers. Robinson and Adams are highly regarded performers, and the two replacements in the secondary saw ample playing time last year and not just in mop up duty.

Linebacker is the greatest concern as Norman is coming back from an injury, Bullough has limited experience and Allen, aside from his special teams play has almost no playing time at the SAM, not to mention that this was a position switch from having played STAR the entire spring camp.

I believe MSU will be significantly improved defensively this year, and that is the only conceivable reason I can see them achieving an 11-1 regular season record. If they are not, and perform to your expectations then I don't expect MSU to win more than 7 games this season, and that's including a bowl win.

Travis LaLonde posted 4 days ago

How can you say he has the best defense he's had in 5 years? I would let it slide if you meant LAST years defense, but they have no standouts at LB, and the seconday, (save trenton robinson) is nothing to brag about. The only strong point of MSU's defense, is the Dline. PERIOD.

Thomas Nigel posted 3 days ago

It is easily his best in his five years because not only does MSU have respectable first team players but Dantonio also has quality depth to place into the rotation. Something he has not had in his prior years.

All four of MSU's secondary members received honorable mention all conference. Johnny Adams and Trenton Robinson return, Adams a junior, Robinson a senior, so Robinson is not the only quailified member returning. The secondary is considered to be the unit with the least amount of concern.

The defensive line has not been a strong point and will need to prove itself. Other than Jerel Worthy, the other three starters are unproven. Gholston, Hoover and White all may have a ton of potential, but potential is vastly different from proven performance. They have not shown an ability to rush the passer, and even with their inability to do so the secondary was still able to have a successful year with 17 interceptions. As an MSU fan I can only wonder how much better their performance would have been if the front four could have applied pressure on the quarterback. The one thing that the MSU DL improved upon last year was rush defense. This improvement should continue this season which will greatly take the emphasis off the linebacking corps.

As I have already acknowledged MSU's linebacking unit is a concern. Bullough has limited playing time, Allen, even less, and Norman is coming off an injury he sustained in the first quarter of the bowl game that prevented him from participating in contact drills during spring camp. The one thing about Bullough replacing Jones is the fact that Bullough, unlike Jones will not be playing out of position. Jones plaed the MIKE out of necessity because they had no one remotely close. Bullough received limited rotation as the MIKE in 2010, showing better pass coverage skills than Jones, and comparable ability against the rush.

It is obvious that our perception of the MSU defense differs greatly. MSU only has two seniors who will play significant roles this year, Robinson and Pickelman. Other than these two MSU's defense consists of junior's and underclassmen, so they are still a relatively young, but talented unit. The disparity in performance between first and second team players that has plagued the MSU defense the first four years under Dantonio has been eliminated. I'm not saying that the first teamers are all all-conference type players, but those behind them can at least play at a minimum, at the same level.

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

The reason I put teams like YSU and even Florida Atlantic getting close to twenty points is that far too often Michigan State seems to play down to the level of teams they are playing. If Michigan State really comes out and plays their best, YSU will be lucky to get in the double digits, but I just don't see our players putting in the effort.

Ryan Poppert posted 4 days ago

I just don't see the Spartans doing that this year. Last year was a surprise year, but now you have a lot of wholes to fill and not as much talent. A lot of these games seemed way to far feched, like beating Wisc. and then OSU, they may have a down year, but they still have talent. I can see you beating OSU by little, but not Wisc. in a long shot.

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

We beat Wisconsin all the time, even when they are nationally regarded. Just like Notre Dame, there are a few teams that the Spartans always play well, Notre Dame and Wisconsin being among them. Everyone said Wisconsin would roll us last year, we spanked them up and down the field.

I really think OSU will have have a big down year. Maybe I am underestimating Coach Fickle but they have had so many off season issues.

Faygo Kid posted 3 days ago

"Not as much talent" is just flat-out wrong. Another year in the system for many like Gholston, Worthy and the rest of the D-line and the RBs, Cousins is a fifth-year senior, the receivers are deepest in the Big Ten, the secondary is solid and the O-line lost some experience but is significantly upgraded in talent, while Foreman is back as a potential All-American with junior McDonald all Big Ten postential. As for the linebackers, losing Jones and Gordon is tough, but every team loses seniors, and Bullough, Hammock and Denicos Allen are more than talented replacements with experience, and Chris Norman is back. The Spartans will have their struggles, like any team, but it won't be for lack of talent. Don't forget the special teams, too. Bates is a loss, but last year we were asking, Dan Conroy, Who? Plus we get Wisconsin at home. For Homecoming. At night. A win will be tough, but it won't be a "long shot."

Bryan Diemer posted 4 days ago

I think they go 9-3. I think they will lose one between OSU and Wisconsin, as well as lose one between Iowa and Northwestern. I think the Nebraska game is most likely a loss as well. That puts them at 9-3 although that Notre Dame game really scares me too.
Also, you mentioned twice that the Spartans will "escape with a narrow 6 point lead" and then posted the final scores of 31-27 and 21-17. I am not a math major but I am pretty sure the difference in the scores is not 6 points.
I do however like the optimism.

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

ahhh you caught me rethinking the scores after I wrote the article, my bad I will edit those.

I would call your prediction the moderate view on the season, and a very good, rational choice. Mine is def. the optimistic view on the season. The pessimistic view? We drop all of the games you mention and lose to Notre Dame as well.

Travis LaLonde posted 4 days ago

Sounds like a LOT of optimism. Last year MSU won 11 games because they had a very cake schedule, at least compared to this year. I do think MSU has a very powerful offense, but I think they are going to have to rely on that offense, because their defense is not nearly as good as it was last year. And its going to be hard to rely on that offense if they can't protect Cousins because although I think he's the best QB in the B1G, he is NOT good under any pressure. And for protecting him, the O line isn't looking promising. Replacing three huge starters wont be easy. The leading candidates are 2 converted DT's and a freshman. I don't think MSU will be bad this year, but they wont beat Wisconsin. I think they lose to Wisky, Neb, and ND. Toss up games being against Michigan and OSU.

Jim Jones posted 4 days ago

The O-line is def. a huge concern. I am not as concerned about the defense, we have a lot of talent at line back, and while no they will not be Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, we will field a decent team. Our secondary has been improving and we have a lot of players last year who showed flashes of potential.

The reason I pick MSU beating Wisconsin is because we have been playing well against them under Dantonio. They have been ranked ahead of us in nearly every game we have played against them, but we still manage to get by them, at least when they play in Spartan Stadium.

I really think Michigan and OSU will have off years. Michigan is going through a transition, OSU had A LOT of off field distractions.

Thomas Nigel posted 3 days ago

Those three huge starters that MSU has to replace on the offensive line consisted of three former defensive tackles, and were the weakest part of the MSU offense last year. They won their starting positions simply because Dantonio had to make a choice to start three inexperienced and underdeveloped freshmen linemen or play three seniors who at the minimum were physically mature even though not as talented.

MSU has been snake bit the last several years when it comes to developing offensive linemen. Two redshirt freshman lineman, both tackles, who figured prominently in their plans were injured, David Barrent and Henry Conway. Barrent's injury proved to be career ending, and Conway was only cleared by the medical staff to resume practicing this summer. Another offensive tackle option was Zac Heuter, but he also was trying to recover from an injury he sustained during spring ball, and only recently was forced to retire because his injury was career ending as well. The loss of these three candidates severely crippled MSU.

This year MSU has two redshirt freshman, 1 RS sophomore, 2 converted DT's, and a JUCO competing for the three open spots, so I don't knkow where you are getting your information that the two converted DT's are the leading candidates. As of 8/17/2011 both RSF hold a slight edge at center and right tackle. One converted DT, Dan France has maintained his lead for the left tackle position over a fifth year, journeyman prospect, Jarred McGaha. McGaha has won a starting spot each of the past two years only to lose it by the second game of the season because of abysmal performance on his part.

The starting guard spots are manned by senior Joel Foreman, an HM All Big Ten, and junior Chris McDonald. They are solid with both likely to receive HM notice at the least this year.

If star ratings are your thing, MSU is replacing 3 2-star players with four 4-star and 2 3-star prospects, with one of the 3-star prospects being a converted DT. Both Alabama and Iowa exposed MSU's 2-star offensive linemen, but they more than held their own against the rest of the competition, especially UW, whose defensive line was considered to be a strength last year.

Walt of Tribal Council posted 3 days ago

Great article. It is exciting because your predictions may be optimistic, but they are also realistic. MSU could go 13-0 this season and it would not be a shock, or they could go 8-5. It will be a very exciting year.

Jim Jones posted 3 days ago

That is the truth, I can't remember a team that has had such a wide win-loss band. lol

J-Rell The Graduate posted 3 days ago

As usual, we (MSU) get railroaded by how we have this, don't have that, blah blah same crap every season. Just about every big D-1A school play scrubs at the beginning of the season...unless you're U-M and lose to FCS Appalachian State on 9/1/07. This year, we have THE toughest road games in the league (ND, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, NW). And again the key month is October where this season makes or breaks us (Ohio State, U-M, Wisconsin, Nebraska). Anything is possible, but don't be so sure Dantonio is going to let MSU fall back from grace. And yes Jim, I 100% agree with your story. Remember, we were picked to finish in the middle of the league, now if we beat Nebraska AND Wisconsin, the Legends division is ours no doubt.

Tyler Davis posted 3 days ago

What's great about the program right now is Michigan State is getting geared up for future success. Its always fun to predict the upcoming season, but what's really exciting for Michigan State now are the following seasons. Dantonio has given a new gift to Michigan State that the program lacked for years, and that is depth. All Div-1 teams have depth but great programs have strong depth, and not just backups but younger players having strong talent and getting reps in football games. MSU has had years where one player made the difference in a game, but after this previous season the program has began to spread the wealth a little with the roster. Having depth at all positions is great, especially being freshman and sophomore's. Much talent has left this previous season, but the talent that played underneath these guys had great potential to be just as good or possibly better. I am extremely excited for this season and can't wait until September 2nd, but I'm mostly excited for the years to come. The recruiting will be better, and the depth will get stronger.

Jim Jones posted 3 days ago

I agree 100 percent. In my opinion, Dantonio is an amazing football program administrator, he is ALL about building the foundations of long term success, which is why I think, should Ohio State come knocking, he will stay at MiSt. For him, the idea of building a program from the bottom up will just be too tempting, especially after he has gone through all the work to build such a strong foundation.

SonnyD posted 3 days ago

Are you really "thinking" or "hoping" tOSU has a down year?

I dont understand this logic. The new coach has been there for 10 years and is changing basically nothing from JT. JT kept it simple as possible be with TP and the same will be done with Braxton. Who's probably already a better passer than TP. And remember, TP won the conference throwing blimp passes as a true freshman. This team is as talented or moreso than that one....when not suspended that is. You'll see

I pull for you guys bc i love Mark D. I just dont see you winning in Cbus although missing Posey and Adams will definately help your chances. But that's why they play the game!!!!!

And when you and many others mention a "down year" for the Buckeyes, how many losses is that? I see you guys losing to Nebraska, tOSU and ND. Hope im wrong on the greedy catholics though. And probably another. 4 losses for MSU this year. Mark the words. 2 for tOSU

Jim Jones posted 3 days ago

It's not just the coaching change, it is the whole combination of off field issues. You have lost a lot of talent, especially through the first five games, and had a lot of distractions. For me its more about the distractions then any changes in schemes or personnel. Remember UNC last year? Remember how they looked like a strong team, but then got in trouble, suspended some players, got distracted and then bombed? your situation might not be quite as bad, but the same principle applies. Off field distractions can lead to on field losses.

Of course some teams prove to being really resilient and work through all the drama. Maybe that will be OSU, but they will be more of an exception then the rule. For now, I am siding with the rule.

Thomas Nigel posted 2 days ago

The OSU and UNC situations are very different. UNC suspended 15 players for their first game against LSU, with most of those players being starters. A handful of players were able to return, but the most significant players never did. OSU suspended 5 players, four of which will return after sitting out their five games.

I have had arguements with others regarding OSU. I'm coming from the point of view that losing Tressel is not as significant as losing an entire staff. Yes, Tressel was the head coach, and as the head coach was terrific at delegating responsibility. His assistants, those same ones that will be on the sidelines and in the pressbox this fall haven't forgotten how to coach or prepare a team. This group has been doing it for years and are very capable of fielding a very competitive team.

Secondly, OSU still maintains a roster filled with high caliber athletes. True, some may lack the playing experience of those who were suspended, but in their own right are very capable of performing at a high level. I personally cannot see OSU suffering in any significant manner due to the loss of Tressel or player suspension.

With that having been said I also believe that the MSU/OSU game will be a very tightly contested affair. Dantonio is an excellent coach who has learned a great deal from being mentored by Tressel and Saban. The 11-2 record last year was a bit of a surprise, but mainly because of the personnel he was forced to play along both forward walls. Stipek, Deane and Young were serviceable offensive linemen at best, and were the weakest part of the team.

As I detailed above, the likelihood of Young and Deane starting last year would have been greatly reduced if Conway and Barrent hadn't been injured. Stipek won out because Dantonio either played him or a 260 pound true freshman, or a 290 pound RS freshman who was struggling to pick up the complexities of playing center at this level.

Since the end of last season Dantonio and his staff have focused on preparing those offensive line recruits from the 2009 and 2010 classes to be ready to assume the starting assignments. Burkland, Jackson, France, Treadwell, and Fonoti have already exhibited the ability to perform at a higher level than what the three graduated players could have ever accomplished. Though the line will be young, it will be vastly more athletic than any in the previous four seasons.

Dantonio has wisely recruited and has amassed a very talented roster that is well coached and plays at a high level. 2011 was projected to be the year that MSU would challenge for a conference title, so technically they were a year ahead of schedule. Dantonio's goal was to bring stability to this program and eliminate the inconsistent performance from year to year. Armed with an experienced senior quarterback, an ensemble of talented skill position players on offense, and a talented, physical, defense MSU will contend for a conference title. These are not the same ole Spartans of the last forty plus years. They are more like the Spartan teams of the fifties and sixties when they were a respected and often feared program.

Jim Jones posted 1 day ago

@Thomas: I think you are dead on with the analysis of MiSt and Dantonio, but disagree with the notion that Ohio State won't see a drop. I am guessing 9-3 season for the Buckeyes, maybe even an 8-4 season. I guess we will have to wait and see though.

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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Bleacher Report Spartan writer is over the top optimistic

How many games will the Spartans Win?

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