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Sunday, July 26, 2015


July is "Beilein Month"
Originally published on 2-18-15

It appears as if the Michigan Basketball "mini-run" against Michigan State has come to an end. It now looks like little more than a statistical aberration, keyed by a pair of one-point wins that formed two three-game win streaks by UM over MSU. Take away those "mini-wins" and you take away the "mini-run".

Remember that "six-out-of-the-last-eight" crowd from last year? Michigan fans used the eight-game span because it served them well, but they were forced to change. They became the "six-out-of-the-last-nine" group, and most recently, the "six-out-of-the-last-ten" coalition. They are now the "six-out-of-the-last-eleven" committee.

We take it a bit farther, going back 25 games in the basketball series between Michigan State and Michigan. The current "break-point", the number of recent games in which the series is even, is 10. In the last 10 games, the series is tied, 5-5The flavor of the rivalry can be defined by the point-margins of victory. 14 of the last 25 games have been double-digit wins for MSU, while the last four UM wins have been by a combined total of 16 points.

So UM has won 6 of the last 11.
They have also won 6 of the last 15.

Our 25-game span covers 14 years, a time-frame that offers a good medium-range view of the series. Some would like a shorter viewpoint, so we've broken those 25 games into five sequential five-game sets. (You can get a good sense of the series by viewing it in five-game intervals.)

Here are the outcomes of the last 25 games between MSU and UM in Men's Basketball, listed in chronological order with the winner and final margin (bottom = most recent):

(1-30-02) MSU by 27
(1-26-03) UM by 2
(1-17-04) MSU by 17
(2-24-04) MSU by 3
(1-27-05) MSU by 11
  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +56 points

(2-12-05) MSU by 15
(1-25-06) UM by 5
(2-18-06) MSU by 19
(2-13-07) MSU by 15
(2-27-07) UM by 11
  • MSU 3-2 in games
  • MSU +33 points

(1-27-08) MSU by 15
(2-10-09) MSU by 12
(1-26-10) MSU by 1
(3-07-10) MSU by 16
(1-27-11) UM by 4
  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +40 points

(3-05-11) UM by 7
(1-17-12) UM by 1
(2-05-12) MSU by 10
(2-12-13) MSU by 23
(3-03-13) UM by 1
  • UM 3-2 in games
  • MSU +24 points

(1-25-14) UM by 5
(2-23-14) UM by 9
(3-16-14) MSU by 14
(2-01-15) MSU by 10
(2-17-15) MSU by 13
  • MSU 3-2 in games
  • MSU +23 points

Michigan has scored a pair of three-game win streaks in the past four seasons, each of which included a one-point UM victory. If those one-point wins had been switched, the Wolverines would have lost seven of the last ten, rather than winning five of the last ten. That's a very small margin for arrogant boasting!

Here are a few other things we can conclude from reviewing the list of actual games played:

  • Over the last 10 games, the series is tied, 5-5 (but the Spartans have outscored the Wolverines by 47 points).
  • Over the last 15 games, MSU leads UM 9-6 (outscoring them by 87 points).
  • Over the last 20 games, MSU leads UM 12-8 (outscoring them by 120 points).
  • Over the last 25 games, MSU leads UM 16-9 (outscoring them by 176 points). The Spartans have had at least one double-digit victory during all but two calendar years since that time (2003, 2011).
  • The Wolverines have won by double-digits over the Spartans only one time since Monica Lewinsky became a household name, and that one game was eight years ago.
  • Four of the last six UM wins have been by five points or less.
  • 12 of the last 13 MSU wins have been by double-digits.

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