Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to a variety of questions
surrounding the Spartans program. As the Spartan prepare to DUMP the chUMps,
our panelists present unique opinions about many facets of Spartan football.
The MSU-UM Rivalry is rated as the 6th best in nation by TicketCity.com - To us it's #1
The MSU-UM Rivalry is rated as the 6th best in nation by TicketCity.com - To us it's #1
Reader comments are encouraged. Click the link at the bottom of the post.
QUESTIONS
1. MSU won their last two conference games by a combined score of 56-3 (Purdue and Illinois), while UM split their last two conference games by a combined score of 103-90 (Penn State and Indiana). What can read into these totals and spreads as they apply Saturday's rivalry game?
2. UM has struggled in the trenches. Many believe MSU will be able to run the ball on their front seven. At the same time, some say MSU's play calling has been impatient - even though they run the ball effectively they go to the air too soon or get out of rhythm with "cute" plays. Do you have concerns about how MSU's play calling could affect the game?
3. Did you observe any interesting developments, plays or story-lines from last Saturday's MSU and/or UM games that may have gone largely unnoticed or lacked meaningful media focus? How do they relate to this Saturday's game?
4. Michigan has had two weeks to heal and prepare for MSU. What impact do you think the UM bye week will have on this this game?
5. What questions about Spartans and/or Wolverines are you looking for this game to answer? What will the results tell us?
6. Open comments about the "meaning" of this game for this season, the program, the rivalry, etc.:
7. What is your favorite memory or personal story related to this series (optional)?
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
This It RIVALRY Week! Contrary to all of the nonsense being posted by both sides, both teams are headed into this loaded for bear. In the case of the Spartans, of course, that would be loaded for Skunkbear! So, Spartan Hoplites, come home with your shields or upon them.
Hot burner question No. 1: Nothing at all. Unranked MSU has taken down No. 1 UM in the past. UM has taken the Spartans to the woodshed more times than any of us like to remember. The bottom line is, the season results to this point do not carry forward into this game. That said, let us look at that game data that I just dismissed.
MSU offense versus UM defense
29.9 points versus 26.7 points
180.9 yards passing versus 255.4 yards allowed
196.5 yards rushing versus 99.9 yards allowed
0.75 sacks allowed versus 2.29 sacks made
1.3 turnovers lost versus 2.5 turnovers gained
On paper, the passing yards could be better than the statistical average.
Can the UM defense contain the MSU rush? On paper, yes. UM has been holding their opponents to about 40 yards below season average per team.
If the UM defense gets the sacks and TOs it could be the decidiing factor in the game.
On paper, the MSU offense should score at its average. The statistics give MSU 28 points.
UM offense versus MSU defense
42.4 points versus 12.3 points
262.6 yards passing versus 160.6 yards allowed
183.9 yards rushing versus 54.9 yards allowed
1.71 sacks allowed versus 2.25 sacks made
2.8 turnovers lost versus 2.1 turnovers gained
Keys to the game:
Can the MSU defense contain the UM passing game? On paper, yes.
Can the MSU defense contain the UM rushing game? On paper, yes. MSU has been holding their opponents to over 70 yards below season average per team.
If the MSU defense gets the sacks and TOs it could be the deciding factor in the game.
Can the MSU defense limit the passing yards per carry to less than 17?
Can the MSU defense stop the UM offense on 3rd downs?
On paper, the MSU defense should contain the UM offense, both passing and rushing.
On paper, UM will be held to 3 TDs or fewer. The statistics give UM 21 to 26 points.
The X-Factor, Penalties:
Michigan 36 for 292 yards, 40.29 average
Michigan State 52 for 521 yards, 65.13 average
Those penalties kill offensive drives, put the offense in 3rd and long, or give the opponent some momentum by keeping their offense on the field. UM has a clear advantage with penalties.
Bottom line: It's a rivalry game. Anything is possible.
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
1. I don't think you can read too much into other games. I am not a fan of people trying to play to common opponents game. Its means even less when the opponents are not common. But the biggest factor is this is a rivalry game. Throw all the history and what you think we know about these teams out the window. Look at 2011 as a perfect example of this. U of M had another juggernaut offense (averaging nearly 40 points per game and over 450 yards per game) and MSU's offense was reliant on Kirk Cousins and Baker was ineffective. In the end U of M couldn't move the ball; Cousins struggled; and Baker carried the offense. Trying to read too far into the previous two games is grasping at something to argue. Heck, compare the Purdue game to the Illinois game and (outside of the defense) they are night and day.
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
1. This isn't your Daddy's U-of-M. Blow Shempheckler only got scorched once with 60 points in back-to-back games, in his first season, and never again more than 54 in any two-game set. But here comes Shady Joke, after getting lit up for 90 the last two games. Not thinking that MSU is worried about getting shut out.
Not much recently suggests that MSU will have incredible trouble stopping the UM Offense. Both Indiana and Illinois have potent offensive schemes, and the Spartans allowed four touchdowns in eight quarters. UConn and Akron held them under 30 so it seems like MSU can hold them under 20.
(The problem with pre-game predictions is they always assume that turnovers will be even, but so often the TOs make the difference.)
2. UM has struggled in the trenches. Many believe MSU will be able to run the ball on their front seven. At the same time, some say MSU's play calling has been impatient - even though they run the ball effectively they go to the air too soon or get out of rhythm with "cute" plays. Do you have concerns about how MSU's play calling could affect the game?
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
2. I have made it clear in previous posts, I am petrified of our play calling. I want to see the play calling we saw in the Illinois game (with the exception of the opening drive). We smashed them with the run and set up the pass when they over committed to stopping the run. I am a huge fan of getting opponents off balance and then staying one step ahead of them. Teams are naturally going to lean toward the run against us. If you can still run the ball effectively and you emphasize that, those guys that are supposed to be in coverage are going to lean toward the run too. That is when you strike. U of M's defense has had its moments where it loses control. We need to stay the course and attack them in the trenches until they start to cheat. Don't be the first to blink.
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
2. I've come to believe that Dantonio and his staff must have been saving up large swaths of Playbook for this game and the rest of the November schedule. On that theory, we should see significantly different play-calls on Saturday, especially in the second half. And by "different", I mean "much better".
My belief is that Dantonio always plays Tressel Ball, and doing so early in this season caused massive outbreaks of shocked boredom. My view is that he is looking at the same schedule we've all been looking at, and he has saved a few pennies in the piggy bank for November.
I'm thinking we'll see things offensively that make MSU look different than what we saw in September and October.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Hot burner question No. 2: I actually have to go along with some of what I have read. I see Coach Dantonio and the coaching staff being more conservative in this game, which means if the run works, they will stick with it. I believe they see the risks of UM's big plays and will use the rushing game to burn the clock from the opening kickoff. If the situation calls for it, there will be one of those so-called trick plays. Note that deception and misdirection are supposed to be part of every play and the “trick play” just does it better.
3. Did you observe any interesting developments, plays or story-lines from last Saturday's MSU and/or UM games that may have gone largely unnoticed or lacked meaningful media focus? How do they relate to this Saturday's game?
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
3. Just that MSU won two games by a score of 56-3, yet barely budged in the national rankings. Seems like scores of 28-0 and 28-3 would have moved them up a few more spots, but somehow the low point total against Purdue almost pre-negated the much higher point total against Illinois.
The polls only relate to this game as a counter-balance to the Vegas line and general predictions a lot of people have for this game. Being ranked lower than UM may help MSU keep a focused approach as so many folks are picking Sparty this weekend.
[Comment by Return2Glory: In a developing story line, chUMp nation in making a concerted effort to reply last year's pre-game narrative that MSU is a dirty team and Datonio is a dirty coach. SpartanMan82 addresses the reality that MICHIGAN is just like every other school in this regard and Taylor Lewan is, in fact, a major perpetrator. See his post, which includes excellent video evidence, here.]
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Hot burner question No. 3: The blue-light special is the outcry of the chUMps against their coaches. They are blaming Hoke and Borges (and others) for the loss at Penn St. What is striking is the similarity to the Spartan fan base that earlier in the season were calling for coaching changes with much the same tone.
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
3. How about the slow starts offensively for MSU? Cook has played his best when MSU has had a lead. He has a QB rating of 120 when the team is trailing or tied in games. This is compared to his QB rating of 140 when MSU is leading those contests. Also looking at his numbers, Cook averages about 7.5 yards per completion in the first quarter of games and averages almost 12 yards per completion in the other 3 quarters. We have averaged 5 yards per carry as a team in the first quarter of games this year and yet we have 0 points on our opening drives. I hate to harp on the coaches but we can clearly run the ball early in games. And if it is Cook needing to get in the groove then call plays to get him in a rhythm sooner or coach him to be less conservative early on. Something needs to change because the earlier we can get Cook the lead the better off we are going to be offensively.
4. Michigan has had two weeks to heal and prepare for MSU. What impact do you think the UM bye week will have on this this game?
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
4. The bye week will have little impact on the game. Anything that MSU was keeping under wraps before last week remained there. MSU isn't a tough to prep for. We are going to smash you in the face and keep pounding both offensively and defensively. Its not like we run the triple-option offense so you can get extra work on assignments. And its not like we run a unique defense that Gardner needs to make special adjustments too. So unless the bye week gave the U of M coaches a chance to teach guys to be tougher or maybe a wrinkle in the offense to open the game, I am not seeing a huge impact.
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
4. The bye-week will help Michigan, especially in the first half. Their focus will likely be very sharp, and MSU may get the best effort of the season from the yellow-pants.
That said, I still believe that Turnovers will be a larger factor than the bye week.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Hot burner question No. 4: UM has had time to work on their issues, but they have also had time to think about them. 11-2 went to 8-5 and now they are a game behind in the division just past the midpoint of the season. They know what's at stake and there are no indications that their rookie QB and young team can handle the pressure. So, for the Ann Arbor Charm School ball club, it creates a Jekyll-Hyde scenario and given their roller coaster, it is hard to say which team will show up on Saturday. Their psyche will not be as sturdy as it could be. The PSU debacle is still there even with the recovery win versus Indiana. They are primed for a major psychological crash if there are early setbacks in the game.
For the Spartans, they sit alone at the top of the division. They are coming off a spectacular win and have confidence and swagger. They too have young players, but they also have battle-scarred veterans to keep things steady. While the bye week gives UM a chance to unsettle themselves, the Spartans will be marching into the stadium with confidence.
Super Secret Strategy:
5. What questions about Spartans and/or Wolverines are you looking for this game to answer? What will the results tell us?
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Hot burner question No. 5: This game will answer one significant question for the Spartan Nation. Was the Illinois game the breakthrough for the offense, the coming of age for the passing and rushing attacks? Given the ups and downs this season, we all are hoping it was, but until they are tested under fire this weekend and post a comparable performance against arguably only the second worthy opponent this season we can't say.
For the UM team, this game will clarify what they are. They win and they are legitimate contenders. They lose and they will be proven to be pretenders.
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
5. Neither MSU or U of M are complete teams. Both have missing pieces to being able to make a historic run. I think this game will put in a real light what both teams ceilings are for this season. If U of M's offense can move the ball regularly on MSU defense, not only does Michigan Man have to like how far that unit can carry them but also MSU has to worry about how far the defense can take us. Same works the other way. Then you have questions if MSU's offense can show some consistency coming off last week or can U of M's defense show some resiliency and bounce back after a couple of rough outings. This is really a litmus test with a action packed November ahead.
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
5. First of all, if it's a close game, then Mark Dantonio will continue to fulfill his original promise, which was "to measure up". He lost by four to UM his first year, and again by two last year. He won the four in-between with an overtime victory sandwiched with double-digit wins. Unless UM gets a comfortable win on Saturday, Dantonio continues to measure up.
By the same token, a Michigan loss would place the Donut King on the stove-top, though not necessarily on a hot burner until his next loss.
6. Open comments about the "meaning" of this game for this season, the program, the rivalry, etc.:
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
6. This game has significant meaning across the board. For this season, MSU has the opportunity to take command on the race for the Legends Division with U of M then sitting on 2 losses and Nebraska having to travel to U of M (and already having 1 loss). If U of M takes it, then the race is wide open between U of M, Neb, and MSU (with U of M having to like their positioning).
As far as the legacy going forward, 5-1 is very nice. You have to go back to the 50's and 60's to see similar kinds of stretches for MSU. In addition, Michigan Man puts a lot of stock in Brady Hoke. If he drops to 1-2 to MSU (especially with the unimpressiveness of last years win) and God forbid loses to Urb and the Buckeyes, suddenly you have to wonder if he is the guy for the job.
Even as recruiting goes, you have to go back to 2006 to find a game when U of M dominated MSU. That was when high school seniors were in the 5th grade. If the last 6 years was 1-5 and you can barely remember back when U of M "dominated" MSU, someone on the fence might lean our way.
As far as posters [reader comments on media websites] go, they are always going to run their mouths but you have to like the crow they have to eat with all that talk about Hoke being the "savior"; their "top-5 NFL draft pick" returning to win a championship; Gardner being a perfect fit for Hoke's offense; Greg Mattison's guys finally coming of age; and all the ragging on us about last years team. This game wasn't even supposed to be on their radar, remember? What happens if they lose?
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
6. The most shocking outcome would be a huge UM win, and that pre-game perspective, shared by so many, may be considered a "result" in and of itself. The entire run-up to the game this weekend is actually the "result" of what people at both schools have been doing for the last 5-10 years. The fact that MSU could actually be favored and the sky isn't falling serves as evidence that things have indeed changed, even if it will never be over.
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
6. This game does not carry any more special meaning than that of a first rate rivalry game. That certainly underplays it, eh? MSU wins and the current record versus UM becomes of historical significance. MSU wins and they are in the catbird’s seat for the trip to Indianapolis. Michigan wins and the Legends Division race becomes very, very interesting. The worst part of a Michigan win, of course, will be having to listen to a whole year of stupid chUMp talk.
[OPTIONAL] What is your favorite memory or personal story related to this series?
SpartanMan82 (See SM82s humorous version of Front-Burner here)
The 1984 game, which I attended, and after which, I gained the true meaning of Bo Shambuckler. I wrote about this experience in "Why We Call Them chUMps". Also to mention the 2001 game, which I also attended, with end-zone seats that were typically poor until the final play, which ended almost right in front of us with the ball in Duckett's hands.
GO GREEN
DUMP THE chUMps
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