The fourth in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler.
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler.
A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that Schemp was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't win 11 BT titles in 13 seasons.
While some facts were made, this is just another example of chUMp cherry picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect.
Looking at the total record puts things in a different light.
In Part I the evolution of college football rules was presented, setting the context and relevant factors needed for a fair comparison. We saw the season is longer, there are more bowls and championship games, and teams play more games than they did nearly 50 years ago.
In Part II the overall records were examined. We noted that Shemp got over half his wins over teams with losing season records.
In Part III the bowl records were examined and we saw clearly that Shemp rarely was up to winning the big games.
Now, down to the nitty-gritty: 13-2 and 21-8. That those titles were earned in those long-ago years is factual, but are the titles Shemp received equivalent to the titles Coach Dantonio has and might receive?
To determine this, the conference record is examined. First, the facts:
| Statistic | Bo Schembechler | Mark Dantonio | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Titles | 5 | 1 | |
| Conference Co-Titles | 8 | 1 | |
| Division Titles | 0 | 2 | [1] |
| Conference Record | 142-24-3 0.8491 | 46-20-0 0.6970 | [2] |
| Conference Games/year | 8.00 | 8.25 | |
| Perfect BT Record | 3 | 1 | [3] |
[1] BT CCG, division titles were started and co-championships were eliminated in 2011.
[2] The 1971 UM at MSU game was out-of-conference. The B1G Ten only scheduled 7 conference games that year.
[3] No losses and no ties. Schemp had 2 additional seasons where the conference record was blemished with a single tie.
Trivia questions:
- What was Schemp's 21-year record versus MSU?
- What is Coach Dantonio's record versus UM?
- Who had the easier road?
- Schemp (21 seasons: 0.7955) was 17-4-0 (0.8095) versus MSU (21 seasons: 0.5192).
- Coach Dantonio (8 seasons: 0.7075) is 6-2-0 (0.7500) versus UM (8 seasons: 0.5446).
- Schemp
The question is: just how good were those conference opponents?
| Bo Schembechler | Mark Dantonio | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BT Team | Overall Record | Bowl Eligible Bowl Record | UM versus | Overall Record | Bowl Eligible Bowl Record | MSU versus |
| All Teams | 952-1110-47 0.4625 | 78 21-28-0 | 142-24-3 0.8491 | 737-589-0 0.5558 | 74 29-41-0 | 46-20-0 0.6970 |
| Illinois | 101-125-8 0.4487 | 8 1-4-0 | 19-1-1 0.9286 | 43-57-0 0.4300 | 4 2-2-0 | 3-0-0 1.0000 |
| Indiana | 88-142-3 0.3841 | 6 2-2-0 | 16-1-0 0.9412 | 33-64-0 0.3402 | 1 0-1-0 | 6-0-0 1.0000 |
| Iowa | 112-122-6 0.4792 | 9 4-4-0 | 13-3-1 0.7941 | 60-42-0 0.5882 | 7 3-3-0 | 3-4-0 0.4286 |
| Maryland | n/a | n/a | n/a | 45-56-0 0.4455 | 5 2-3-0 | 1-0-0 1.0000 |
| Michigan | 194-48-5 0.7955 | 21 5-12-0 | n/a | 55-46-0 0.5446 | 5 2-3-0 | 6-2-0 0.7500 |
| Michigan St | 118-109-7 0.5192 | 12 2-3-0 | 17-4-0 0.8095 | 75-31-0 0.7075 | 8 4-4-0 | n/a |
| Minnesota | 100-127-5 0.4418 | 9 1-2-0 | 19-2-0 0.9048 | 42-59-0 0.4158 | 5 0-5-0 | 4-1-0 0.8000 |
| Nebraska | n/a | n/a | n/a | 71-35-0 0.6698 | 7 3-4-0 | 2-2-0 0.5000 |
| Northwestern | 49-177-3 0.2205 | 2 0-0-0 | 14-0-0 1.0000 | 56-45-0 0.5545 | 6 1-4-0 | 5-2-0 0.7143 |
| Ohio St. | 181-56-5 0.7583 | 20 7-10-0 | 11-9-1 0.5476 | 88-18-0 0.8302 | 8 4-4-0 | 2-4-0 0.3333 |
| Penn St. | n/a | n/a | n/a | 69-33-0 0.6765 | 8 3-3-0 | 3-2-0 0.6000 |
| Purdue | 108-120-4 0.4741 | 6 3-1-0 | 16-3-0 0.8421 | 38-61-0 0.3838 | 3 2-1-0 | 6-0-0 1.0000 |
| Rutgers | n/a | n/a | n/a | 61-42-0 0.5922 | 7 5-2-0 | 1-0-0 1.0000 |
| Wisconsin | 95-132-6 0.4206 | 6 1-2-0 | 18-1-0 0.9474 | 76-31-0 0.7103 | 8 2-6-0 | 4-3-0 0.5714 |
Look at the data again. What jumps out?
- Schemp had a winning record against all 7 conference opponents.
- Only 2 of the 7 conference teams had a winning record during the Schemp era.
- Schemp had a perfect record versus 1 conference opponent, Northwestern. Northwestern had a 21 season record of 0.2205.
- Coach Dantonio has a winning record against 10 of 13 conferenct opponents and is 2-2-0 versus Nebraska.
- 9 of the 13 conference opponents have winning records over the past 8 seasons.
- Coach Dantonio has a prefect record versus 5 conference opponents.
During Schemp's 21 years, only 2 B1G Ten opponents achieved 0.5000 or better season records in 11 or more seasons (greater than half). Ohio State. Michigan State.
The aggregate record of B1G Ten teams during the Dantonio's tenure to date is 737-589-0 (0.5558). Subtracting out the MSU record versus the conference gives 717-543-0 (0.5690). The 2/3 B1G Ten titles were "earned" versus conference opponents that, as a whole, were much more competitive. Note: MSU's conference opponents had a 29-41 (0.4143) bowl record.
The conference opposition Coach Dantonio faced had only 3 teams that failed to achieve a 0.5000 record in 5 or more of the past 8 seasons.
Summarizing:
Schemp's 0.8500 conference record was versus an aggregate 0.4899 record while Dantonio's 0.6970 conference record was versus an aggregate 0.5690 record.
Schemp had more seasons, which were shorter, and his conference opponents were definitely weaker.
Coach Dantonio has adjusted to 2 conference expansions and 2 division realignments, neither of which Schemp had to deal with.
In 4 of his 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio could earn a conference championship only through the CCG. That is another challenge Schemp never faced.
Coach Dantonio's teams played longer seasons and stiffer competition. B1G Ten rule changes kept MSU out of 2 Rose Bowls and prevented Coach Dantonio from hanging a second BT banner. Those are relevant facts.
Schemp's conference opponents were much less successful than those Coach Dantonio has faced. While Schemp has the better overall record and more titles, Coach Dantonio faced much stiffer competition and longer seasons. Even with that schedule, Coach Dantonio bested Schemp's record more than once.
What about the out of conference opponents?
In those 21 seasons, Schemp's teams faced 34 different non-conference opponents racking up a 51-24-2 (0.6753). Those 34 teams over the 21 years had an aggregate record of 4430-3535-148 (0.5552). Subtracting out the UM games, the non-conference opponents record is 4406-3483-146 (0.5574).
In 8 seasons, Dantonio led teams faced 24 different non-conference opponents going 29-11-0 (0.7250). Dantonio's record includes 5 wins over 4 different FCS teams, one of which (2 wins) has recently moved into FBS. Taking the other 3 games out of the conversation, the FBS record is 0.7027. Those 25 teams in the past 8 years have an aggregate record of 1350-1056-0 (0.5611). Without the FCS teams, and subtracting out the MSU record, the non-conference opponents record is 1334-1027-0 (0.5650).
Yes, Schemp has more BT titles. But when one looks at the whole picture, the one thing that is perfectly clear...
Schemp had the easier road.
It isn't over. It will never be over here. It's just starting.
Part 1, The Evolution of College Football Rules.Part 2, The Season Records.
Part 3, The Bowl Records.
Part 4, The In-conference Records.
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Do you think Dantonio is a better coach than Bo?
ReplyDeleteA couple of points on your question.
ReplyDeleteFirst, a valid conjecture would be, could Coach Dantonio have done as well back in the 70s and 80s as he is doing today? Another would be the flip. Could Schembeckler have done as well in the present time.
The other point is, they coached in literally 2 different worlds. Schemp did not have to deal with the money pressures that are in the game today as one example. There are just too many significant differences between now and then to be able to make a fair comparison of coaching abilities and therefore it would not be fair to claim one is better than the other.
Based on the analysis, Schemp was more successful in specific areas than Coach Dantonio (so far!) and Coach Dantonio has better successes in others.
In the final analysis, Shemp had the easier road. What can not be answered is, if the road were harder, the climb steeper, would he have done as well or perhaps even better?
Football revolved around Duffy Daugherty, Woody Hayes, and Ara Parseghian back then. Bo Schembeckler entered the scene when 2 of those 3 were exiting.
Now, to answer your question, only time will tell. This much is pretty clear: If Coach Dantonio wins a National Title then it can be well argued that he is the better coach. Until that happens, we will just have to wait and see what transpires over the next 13 seasons.
I'll respond another way. While MSUSpartan76 has done a great job in parsing the variables, there is one HUGE one that should be addressed. I think the reason 76 stayed away from that variable is that it can't be boiled down to statistical data. I big variable is that it is just plain easier to recruit and win in Ann Arbor than it is in East Lansing. From money, to population centers, to geography, to media, to perception, to exposure, UM has the more favorable circumstances in each of those categories, To answer Dunphy's question, I have to ask two corresponding questions. Could Mark Dantonio have done at least as well as Glenn Schembechler had he taken over the UM job that era? Would Glenn had done at least well as Coach D had he taken over the Spartans program after John L Smith? The answer is purely speculative, but since what Dantonio did was so against the odds and since he coaches recruiting classes ranked in the 30s and 40s into top 20 and 5 teams I just believe that Coach D would have been more likely to exceed Glenn's record if he were in Glenn's shoes. In fact I think he would have had at least one national title with the talent they could amass back then in Ann Arbor before the 85 scholarship limit. I am really not confident Coach Glenn coach have matched what Dantonio did if he were in coach D's shoes He would not have had the benefits that Ann Arbor and over 100 scholarships (thus taking players from weaker competitors) brings. So - YES. I believe that Dantonio is the "better COACH".
ReplyDeleteVery nice reply by 76. Fair, balanced, even-handed. I offer my "couple of points".
ReplyDeleteThe first is the same as 76's second point, that the conditions under which both coaches worked were substantially different, and those differences skew the comparisons.
The second is that Coach Mark is literally "comparable to" Coach Glenn. Dantonio has one-third of the head-coach reps that Shembechler had, so all of the quantitative data seems to favor the guy who fired Ernie Harwell. But if you took an eight-year snapshot of the UM coach, then compared to the MSU coach, there are many ways in which the Green Guy looks better than the Yellow Guy.
Word to the wise: Watch out for this "Bill Dunphy" commenter. He used only ten words to draw hundreds from us, and while he may or may not be a "troll", that is exactly the Modus Operandi of trolls.