GLENN SCHEMBECHLER HAD EASIER ROAD THAN MARK DANTONIO - PART 2

The second in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76

detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler

A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that Schemp was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't possibly win eleven of the next thirteen conference championships.

While some facts were made, this is just another example of chUMp cherry picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect.

Looking at the total record puts things in a different light.

In Part I the evolution of college football rules was presented, setting the context and relevant factors needed for a fair comparison. We saw the season is longer, there are more bowls and championship games, and teams play more games than they did nearly 50 years ago.

In this part, the total record is examined. The facts:

Statistic	Bo Schembechler	Mark Dantonio	Notes
Seasons	1969-1989 (21)	2007-2014 (8)	[1]
Record	194-48-5 0.7955	75-31-0 0.7075
Average Games/year	11.76	13.25
Undefeated Seasons	0	0	[2]
Longest Season	11-2-0 0.8462	13-1-0 0.9286
Best Season	11-1-0 0.9167 bowl: L	13-1-0 0.9286 bowl: W CCG: W
Worst Season	6-6-0 0.5000 bowl: L	6-7-0 0.4615 bowl: L
10+ Win Seasons	11 of 21 52.4%	4 of 8 50.0%

[1] Dantonio is entering his 9th season.

[2] Schemp's 1973 record was 10-0-1, which technically counts as undefeated. Schemp's 1971 record was 11-0 in regular season play. Season ended with a bowl loss.

What are the take-aways from this data-base?

• Schemp has the better record, but with 13 more seasons, Coach Dantonio will have coached 12 more games, not including any future bowls or championship games.
• Coach Dantonio has coached the best season.
• Coach Dantonio has coached the longest season.
• The percentage of 10+ win seasons is nearly the same. If the Spartans post 10 or more wins in 2015, Coach Dantonio will best Schemp in that category, too.
• Both had a 6-win worst season. Both lost the bowl game.

Schemp achieved a 0.7955 winning percentage with a 194-48-5. For Coach Dantonio to match or better that, the Spartans will have a 21-year record of 220-55-0. Given all of the next 13 years in this scenario, a bowl game would be played every year.

Schemp achieved his record with an average of 9.24 wins per year. Coach Dantonio achieved his record with an average of 9.375 wins per year. Because of the number of games played in the game today, to match Schemp's winning percentage, Coach Dantonio will need a 21-year average of 10.47 wins per year.

But there is more: Strength of schedule.

Statistic	Bo Schembechler	Mark Dantonio	Notes
Opponents	43	37
Opponents' 21-yr Aggregate Record	5382-4645-195 0.5360	2163-1676-0 0.5634
Opponents w/ 21-yr Winning Records	23 (53.5%)	24 (64.9%)
Team Record vs. Winning Records	13-7-3 (0.6304)	15-7-2 (0.6667)
Game Record vs. "Winning Teams"	57-36-2 (0.6105)	42-29-0 (0.5915)
Opponents w/ 21-yr Losing Records	20 (46.5%)	13 (35.1%)
Team Record vs. Losing Records	18-0-2 (0.9500)	12-1-0 (0.9231)
Game Record vs. "Losing Teams"	137-12-3 (0.9112)	33-2-0 (0.9429)
FCS Opponents (games)	0	4 (5)	[1]

[1] 3 of the 4 FCS opponents MSU has played have 8-year winning records. In 4 of 5 games the FCS opponent had a winning season when MSU played them. 1 of the 4 teams (2 games) is now a FBS program.

Schemp faced 43 different opponents in his 21 seasons. 23 (53.5%) of those teams posted a 21-year aggregate winning record. Schemp had winning records versus 13 (56.5%) of those teams. Coach Dantonio has faced 37 different opponents in his 8 seasons. 24 (64.9%) of those teams have aggregate winning records during Coach Dantonio's tenure and the Spartans have winning records versus 15 (62.5%) of those teams.

Schemp posted perfect records versus 21 opponents (48.8%). His best showing was 14-0-0 versus Northwestern. Northwestern's 0.2205 record in that 21-year span ranked 43rd of the 43 opponents. Coach Dantonio has so far posted perfect records versus 21 opponents (56.8%). His best showing was versus Purdue at 6-0-0. Purdue's 0.3838 record for the past 8 years ranks 32nd of the 38 opponents faced to date.

20 of Schemp's opponents (46.5%) had 21-year losing records and Schemp had a winning record versus 18 (90.0%) of them. Coach Dantonio has faced 13 teams with 8-year losing records and has winning records versus 12 (92.3%) of them. Schemp's worst showing was 0-1-0 versus North Carolina. UNC was 0.5806 during the 21-year span. UNC was 8-3-1 and UM was 8-4-0 the season they played. Coach Dantonio's worst showing was 0-1-0 versus California. California is 0.4500 over the past 8 seasons and both schools achieved 9-4-0 records the season they met.

Only 2 teams (4.6%) Schemp faced had better 21-year records than UM. Schemp went 1-1-0 versus them. In comparison, 6 teams (16.2%) Coach Dantonio has faced have better records over the 8 years he has been at MSU. Coach Dantonio is 9-10-0 versus those teams. 4 of those 6 teams have better overall records than Schemp's two best opponents. Georgia has posted the same record and MSU under Coach Dantonio is 1-1-0 versus the Bulldogs. Both were bowl games.

It's clear from the data that Schemp's opponents were less successful than those Coach Dantonio has faced. While Schemp has the better overall record, Coach Dantonio faced a measureably more difficult schedule and even with that schedule bested Schemp's record more than once.

Breaking it down by season wins and losses:

	Bo Schembechler				Mark Dantonio
Opponent Season Wins	Games Played	% of Total Games	Record	W-L %	Games Played	% of Total Games	Record	W-L %
0-4	90	37.2%	90-1-1	0.9837	26	24.5%	25-1-0	0.9615
5-9	130	52.6%	100-27-3	0.7808	54	50.9%	41-13-0	0.7593
10-15	25	10.1%	4-20-1	0.1800	26	24.5%	9-17-0	0.3462
Opponent Season Losses	Games Played	% of Total Games	Record	W-L %	Games Played	% of Total Games	Record	W-L %
8-12	48	19.4%	48-0-0	1.0000	26	24.5%	25-1-0	0.9615
3-7	166	67.2%	144-22-4	0.8554	65	61.3%	44-21-0	0.6769
0-2	33	13.4%	6-26-1	0.1970	15	14.2%	6-9-0	0.4000

To make a fair comparison, the 11-game season versus 12-game season has to be factored in. Schemp faced 25 teams (10.1% of games played) that had 10 or more wins in the season they played. 4-20-1 (0.1800). Coach Dantonio has faced 18 (17.0%) with 11 or more wins in the season. 7-11-0 (0.3889).

What's the takeaway?

4-20-1, 6-26-1: Seems like Schemp just could not win the big games, at least not on a regular basis.

Breaking it down by season win-loss record:

	Bo Schembechler				Mark Dantonio
Opponent Winning %	Games Played	% Total Games	Record	W-L %	Games Played	% Total Games	Record	W-L %
0.0000-0.2999	50	20.2%	50-0-0	1.0000	18	17.0%	18-0-0	1.0000
0.3000-0.4999	74	30.0%	71-2-1	0.9662	19	17.9%	17-2-0	0.8947
0.5000-0.7999	95	38.5%	69-23-3	0.7421	54	50.9%	34-20-0	0.6296
0.8000-1.0000	28	11.3%	4-23-1	0.1607	15	14.2%	6-9-0	0.4000

Trivia questions:

1. How many winless teams did Schemp play?
2. How many winless teams did Coach Dantonio play?
3. Who had the easier road?

Answers:

1. 6: Illinois (1969); Iowa (1973); Northwestern (1978, 1980, 1981); Indiana (1984).
2. Zero. None.
3. Schemp.

Read on...

In the modern context, to qualify as bowl eligible, teams need a 0.5000 regular season record or better. Whether an 11 or 12 game season, bowl eligible teams had to win 6 or more games.

In his 21 seasons, Schemp faced 43 different opponents in 247 games, including bowl games. Only 123 (49.8%) games were played versus opponents that would have been bowl eligible today. Schemp was 73-46-4 (0.6098) versus bowl eligible teams and 121-2-1 (0.9798) versus teams with losing season records. Schemp did carry on the UM tradition of beating up weak opponents.

In 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio has faced 37 different opponents in 106 games, including bowl and championship games. In 69 (65.1%) of those games, the opponents were bowl eligible. Coach Dantonio has compiled a 40-29-0 (0.5797) record versus bowl eligible teams and 35-2-0 (0.9459) versus teams with losing season records.

Taking it down a notch, 27.5% of the teams Schemp faced had seasons no worse than 1 fewer wins than UM. The record was 29-38-1 (0.4338). 46.2% of Coach Dantonio's opponents had seasons no worse than 1 fewer wins when they played. MSU, so far, is 23-26-0 (0.4694).

In his 21 seasons, Schemp played 43 games (17.4%) against teams that had season records equal to or better than UM in the season they played. Schemp went 12-30-1 (0.2907) versus peer competition. Schemp was 182-18-4 (0.9020) versus inferior competition.

In 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio has played 39 games (36.8%) versus teams with equal or better season records compiling a 16-23-0 (0.4103) record. Versus the less successful teams, Coach Dantonio was 59-8-0 (0.8806). Coach Dantonio is playing more than twice the number of games per season against elite competition with a better win-loss record.

No question about it...

Schemp had the easier road.

But wait! There's more:

Part 1 -  The Evolution of College Football Rules.

Part 2 -  The Total Records.

Part 3 -  The Bowl Records.

Part 4 -  The In-conference Records.

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