MSU FOOTBALL FRONT-BURNER: Big Ten Champions Edition

BIG TEN CHAMPIONS EDITION
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 

Front-Burner will be published in three parts between now and the Rose Bowl:
1. B1G Championship Game Discussion
2. MSU 2013 Season Discussion
3. Rose Bowl and Beyond Discussion

Panelists:

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s posts)

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)

Part 1 Discussion Questions (Please send additional questions in COMMENTS below the post.)

1. Wow, how about the REFS in that championship game? They seemed to control the game without distorting the process, making every correct call and non-call without controversy. Many fans were concerned about Buckeye bias in the interest of the Big Ten. Did the strong chorus of concerns preempt an orchestrated officiating bias? What do you think of the Big Ten officiating to Jim Delany tie-in theories?

2. And what was that smirky "thank-you" by Delany to the losing team on the championship podium? It seemed a little bit jammed-in, and it seemed to preempt Dantonio from mentioning them on his own. Does Jim Delany really eat Buckeye Nuts for breakfast, lunch, and dinner? Does he even realize why he was being booed? How do you think it happened that the confetti used in the celebration was blue and yellow?

3. Okay, enough about Delany. How cool was it to be up by 17 in the first half? How many "chUMps" did you dUMp in your shorts while you watched Ohio STATE score 24 in a row? When Geiger kicked his second-half field-goal, were you thinking it might be the start of another 17-0 run to finish? Have you ever seen a game so clearly divided into three parts like that?

4. What about the play-calling by Michigan State? Many have had issues with play-calls throughout the season, but it seemed to work out right on Saturday night in Indy. What do you think?

5. OSU finished with relatively gaudy offensive numbers against MSU, drawing some surprising post-game criticism of the Defense, which remains rated #1 in Rush Defense, 3rd-down completion-% defense, and Total Defense, and also in the Top Five in Passing Efficiency defense, First-Down defense, and Scoring defense. What's up with that? How do you view the performance by the MSU-D in the championship game?

6. What other observations or comments do you have about the game, the meaning of MSU's win, fan/media reaction or other story lines?


Panelist Responses (Join in using the comments link at the bottom of the web version post.)

1. Wow, how about the REFS in that championship game? They seemed to control the game without distorting the process, making every correct call and non-call without controversy. Many fans were concerned about Buckeye bias in the interest of the Big Ten. Did the strong chorus of concerns preempt an orchestrated officiating bias? What do you think of the Big Ten officiating to Jim Delany tie-in theories?

SpartanMan82 (See SM82's Post: UM Names Awards For Banquet)
We finally got a game without serious trouble from the officials, and look at the results. There have been far too many MSU football games skewed by crazy calls and/or non-calls, leaving a sour taste over a bitter loss. Not this one. The refs were clean, and the game was clean.

Delany certainly helped both Ohio STATE and Michigan by choosing not to impose penalties on the dozen or more un-penalized players who started and/or participated in the on-field fracas in Ann Arbor. But this game offered no evidence for the conspiracy theories about special favors for those two schools.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow '76 on M-Live)

The officiating in the B1G Ten Championship game left a little to be desired. The number of no calls were just smidgeon higher than they should. I suspect this was due to the pendulum swinging backwards. That aside, it was balanced. MSU got away with a couple as did OSU, so they did not tilt the playing field.
I read in a fan post on MLive.com that ESPN had broached this topic and discussed the possibility of B1G Ten bias in officiating. I have not been able to verify that, but it was obliquely discussed lately on the Big Ten Network in reference to the Notre Dame game and how those questionable pass interference calls probably cost MSU a shot at the National Championship game. I believe that the discussion had its desired effect. I also believe that there was bias against MSU under instructions from Delany and it goes back at least as far as the Gholston suspension and Narduzzi "admonishment" after the UolM game in 2011.

ATownAndDown (Follow A-Town on M-Live)

The officiating wasn't bad. Really it appeared that they took a "let the players decide the outcome" approach in my opinion. There were a lot of no calls. In particular, OSU was getting away with quite a bit of grabbing in the trenches which created a lot of the gap issues we had there in the middle of the game. All in all, I thought it was pretty clean and anything that would have swayed the outcome would have been pretty obvious. I know Jim Delany is in love with the idea of the Big 2 and Little 8 (and he has been called out a few times for that) but its tough on that kind of stage to influence the outcome. Its one thing to dish out suspensions with that bias in mind and its another to have your refs clearly leaning toward one team in what will be the highest rated game of your conferences season.

____________________________________________

2. And what was that smirky "thank-you" by Delany to the losing team on the championship podium? It seemed a little bit jammed-in, and it seemed to preempt Dantonio from mentioning them on his own. Does Jim Delany really eat Buckeye Nuts for breakfast, lunch, and dinner? Does he even realize why he was being booed? How do you think it happened that the confetti used in the celebration was blue and yellow?

Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game Post-Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown to Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

I shall repeat this again:
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In the Countdown to Roses post I acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

The biggest question going into the game was which would win: the irresistable force (OSU rushing attack and OSU scoring offense) or the immovable object (MSU rushing defense and MSU scoring defense)?

It would seem the OSU rushing attack won that part of the contest being held back merely 48 yds below average while the MSU rushing defense was pushed around by 198 yards more than their season average. On the other hand, the OSU scoring offense was held to 24 pts, 50% of their season average while the MSU defense was bullied 12 pts (100%) above their season average. The irresistable force was not so irresistable and the immovable object was bent and slipped, but did not break.

In the statistical sense, OSU rushing was held to 85% of their season average, OSU passing was 48% of average, total OSU offense was 70% of average, and OSU scoring was 50% of average. So while the MSU defense got bullied by the OSU rushing (6.8 yards per rush) and scoring, OSU was ultimately stopped.

On the flip side, while MSU rushing was held to 72% of their season average, the MSU passing attack was magnificent at 157% of their season average and posted the best passing yards of the season. MSU total yards was also above average (115%) and so was the scoring (116%). The much maligned MSU passing game gained a respectable 12.7 yards per completion.

Pregame assessments by the media and fans questioned whether or not the MSU defense could stop the "explosive" OSU offense. It seems it did, but OSU had the edge. OSU gained 273 yards rushing, including Miller breaking out for 48, 21, and 24 yards (the other 18 Miller rushes totalled 49 yards, 2.7 yd/carry). But, the MSU defense stood tall and stopped Miller and the OSU rush when it needed to, more than once. OSU was 1 of 10 in 3rd down conversions and 0 of 2 in 4th down attempts.

MORE THAN A DOZEN UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN STUDENTS ARRESTED

Students at Michigan State University are pretty good at a lot of things, but students at the University of Michigan are much better at mis-behaving, breaking the law, and getting arrested.

Take Saturday night, for example. About 1000 kids gathered in Cedar Village and some of them burned some old furniture. Now the local authorities, who were apparently unprepared for any such event to happen, are launching a 24/7 search for somebody to arrest. They will presumably find some people and arrest them.

Well that's nothing compared to UM. Take last April 8th, for example. The Louisville men's basketball team won the NCAA Championship that night, and the Michigan student body proceeded to burn down the entire city. Now that's serious domestic terrorism. Why be isolated in a so-called "student ghetto" when you take your torches to the neighborhoods?

And what about the student-athletes, why not get them involved in the action? Up here in Spartan Country, it's always regular students and their friends (and out-of-towners) who get arrested, never anybody on scholarship. But in Ann Arbor, they do things right, or they don't do them at all.

That's why two Michigan athletes, wrestlers Justin Dozier and Rosario Bruno, led the charge to light up the night back in April after their favorite basketball team came to the end of their five-game win streak. Those two (and others) were arrested, charged, and sentenced for their felony-level crimes. The technical charge was "explosives-manufacture/possession of molotov cocktail". That beats anything that ever happened at Cedar Village.

And it was just last Friday morning that more than a dozen UM students decided to break-and-enter into Michigan Stadium. They were also caught and arrested. It's been done by them before. It's a felony-level crime. Am I making this up? Not at all, you can read about it right here.

So when you hear some Wolverines claiming to be the "leaders and best", this is the type of thing they mean. While they didn't have the first couch-burning party, they had the "best" one last April. When they couldn't keep the Ohio STATE football team from breaking up their Senior Day, they decided to break into their football sanctuary and do their little arson-and/or-vandalism thing right then and there. Gotta' admire their spunk, they are very good at being very bad.




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THE TEN-YEAR BATTLE: MSU FOOTBALL vs UM

Now that MSU has won the B1G Conference 2013 Championship, let's update our review of the football rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan. Here's a look at the last ten years of the series:

Last 10 Football Games Between MSU and UM

• Ten Game Record = MSU 5, UM 5
• Non-Overtime Record = MSU 4, UM 3
• Total Points = MSU 267, UM 228 (MSU + 39)

SEASON RESULTS OVER LAST DECADE

• MSU TEN YEAR TOTAL = 77-50 (.606)
• Current Bowl Games in a row = 7
• Current Bowl Win Streak = 2
• Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 2
• Six bowl games played, two wins
• League Championships = 2
• Division Titles = 2

• UM TEN YEAR TOTAL = 77-48 (.616)
• Current Bowl Games in a row = 4
• Current Bowl Win Streak = 0
• Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 1
• Eight bowl games played, two wins
• League Championships = 1
• Division Titles = 0

BOTTOM LINE:  Michigan State has a better bowl streak in progress, as well as a better bowl-win streak. MSU has "measured up" by winning more league championships and division titles over the last decade. The series is tied in wins/losses, and the Spartans lead in points scored. The overall game record of the two teams is extremely close, with less than two games separation over 10 seasons, a difference of only one percentage-point (62% to 61%).

Do you want to see the "long version" of this article,

complete with all of the detailed data and stats?

Just click here.

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MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: B1G Championship Game Edition Part 3. Time for Dessert.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME EDITION PART THREE
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 

Panelists:

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s chUMp of the Month Award for November)

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)

Panelist Responses (Part 3):

MSUSpartan76 Bonus Question: 
You have the most read post on this web site. In that post you discuss the myth of the widening recruiting gap that UM supposedly enjoys over MSU and statistically supported the facts that the gap is, in fact, shrinking. Without sending you on an a multi-day research project, can you comment about the recruiting gap or trends for Ohio State vs. MSU, even in general terms?

It does not take a multi-day research to get to the answer. A quick scan of tO$U class rankings was all that was needed. tO$U and UoLM have recruiting class rankings that pretty much track each other year by year, generally in the top 20 or better (Scout.com). The analysis of the MSU recruiting versus UoLM directly applies to tO$U versus MSU. MSU is closing the gap on all of the top ranked school. Coach Dantonio and his staff are not making the news by getting celebrity recruits but year by year are getting better and better classes of players. The best part is, the kids they sign buy into the program, plan to stay for 4 years, commit to improving themselves and contributing to the success of the team/program without consideration of personal glory or gain.

Have you noticed that the chUMps have been a little quiet of late, ever since their No. 2 recruit broke covenant with Coach Hoax and decided to go on some official visits to other school. Funny how Coach Hoax has decided to bend the rule in this case, the rule being a kid who talks to other schools or goes for visits is no longer considered a UoLM commit.

ATownAndDown Bonus Question: 
I saw something about Bennie Fowler possibly getting an extra year of eligibility. That would be huge - every receiver coming back? Can you fill us on what you know? Has Lawrence Thomas been limited enough to get a sixth year (if he even needs it)? 

Fowler's ability to comeback next season is a good thing. Calling it huge is a little premature because I think that is based on his ability to take that next step. He got off to a rough start and was nicked up for a few games. He has been our most explosive receiver and obviously the best receiver with a nose for the endzone.  But he isn't exactly blowing last years results out of the water. If Fowler takes a step forward and becomes a guy that can pull over 50 catches (maybe push 60) then you are looking at a real weapon for an offense that might have to step up its game with the defense losing a few key guys.

As far as LT goes, I think he does not get a 6th year and that is for a couple reasons. First and foremost, while LT hasn't been a huge contributor because of the emergence of guys like Knox and Scarpinato at the DT spots while he was absent, he has played in the last five games. I believe in order to qualify for a 6th year you have to have played in less than a third of the teams games and none of those games can be in the second half. Even if he sits out the last two games 5 of 14 is over one-third and all five came after game 7. But the second reason why I don't see that happening is back in the Spring we heard Coach Narduzzi say that LT had the talent to be an All-B1G player and recently Coach D said that even if LT could get a 6th year, he would never see it because he would leave for the NFL before it came to fruition. Basically, LT is a guy that, once he gets healthy and gets an opportunity, is going to put the world on notice of his talent. I have not heard the coaches speak so highly of any player for us over their tenure here and there have been some really quality players that have come through. And if it is all smoke it makes little sense to play him in the fashion they have and not hold him out for that potential sixth season of eligibility.

The guy that I have not heard much about that I think can pick up an extra year is Jairus Jones. He only played in the first four games this year and has been shut down. LB's are losing Bullough and Allen. Secondary is losing Dennard and Lewis. Jones being back in the mix for one more year can really be a nice addition to the defense and boost the LB corps and aid in pass coverage too. I was really impressed with his impact at that new spot when he played this year. I would love to see him come back and end his career on a high note.

SpartanMan82 Bonus Question: 
How about that Mike Griffith of MLive? Even though he ranked MSU higher than most in the polls, the headlines of his articles on the Spartan team still seem to be like back-handed compliments, if not outright denigration. Who does this guy think he is?

He seems to think he is "above" his current assignment, apparently because he thinks the SEC is "all that and more". He is like Drew Sharp without the high intelligence. He makes factual errors in his stories on a regular basis, and says dUMb things like the MSU Defense this year can't be remembered as the best-ever unless the team as a whole is selected by a political process to play in a certain bowl.

He's not the brightest bulb in the lamp, and he tries to make up for his obvious deficits by baiting his readers with controversial claims against the home team. He has a poor grasp of the subject matter for which he is responsible. He offers no relevant insights, as he has none.

Mike Griffith appears to be a run-of-the-mill sports-dork who has risen to his own level of incompetence. To cover for his lack of substance, he takes shots at the home team with back-handed compliments, mixed reviews, and subtle innuendo. There is no point in reading his articles about MSU sports.

[Be sure to read comments for more opinions on this topic, including A-Town's reply to SM82.]

______________________________________________________

Part 1 Questions (Previous Edition):

1. It was the Michigan football players who started the on-field brawl in their game against Ohio STATE, yet only a single UM player was penalized in any way. This, despite multiple Wolverines who ran onto the field, several of whom made physical contact with Buckeyes. How does Michigan come out of this ugly incident relatively clean, while Ohio STATE is made to look like the bad guys?

2. MSU Punter, Mike Sadler was clearly roughed near the end of the Minnesota game, yet no penalty was called. This feels similar to the bogus pass-interference calls made against the Spartans at Notre Dame, and the multiple non-calls that should have been made against Taylor Lewan in the Michigan game. Do you believe that Michigan State plays on a level field when it comes to Big Tens referees and/or administrators? 

3. The Buckeye Defense looks pretty vulnerable this season, but what can MSU do about the Ohio STATE Offense? Miller and Hyde look pretty damn good. Give your best guess at the point total to be scored by the Buckeyes.

Part 2 Questions (Previous Edition):

4. What under reported developments, plays or story-lines have you observed since our last Front-Burner?

5. Despite the great season in progress, Mark Dantonio has not been able to register measurable gains in recruiting, at least according to the five-star-system used to rate high school players. On the other hand, Langford and Lippett came in as three-star "athletes", and Dennard and Waynes arrived as two-star recruits. Do the benefits of a season most likely show up with high school juniors more than the current class of seniors? Do you care at all about the recruiting rankings for Michigan State?

Click here for Part 1 panelist responses.
Click here for Part 2 panelist responses

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MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: B1G Championship Game Edition Part 2. Time to Feast at the Table.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME EDITION PART TWO
Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 

Panelists:

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s chUMp of the Month Award for November)

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)

Part 2 Panelist Responses:

4. What under reported developments, plays or story-lines have you observed since our last Front-Burner?

SpartanMan82 (See SM82's This Date in chUMps History)

All of the chUMps have convinced each other that this is a one-time-season for Michigan State as "all of the defensive stars will be graduating". Um, not really. We have a five-star recruit playing third-string on the D-Line. We have two four-star recruits red-shirting at linebacker, with another four-star linebacker verbally committed and a Bullough moving back to that position group. Two of our four starting defensive backs will return, plus all of the subs in the backfield.

The Spartan Football Program is in good shape, with strong depth all over the field. The main loss to worry about for next year may be Narduzzi.

[From Return2Glory: Also returning is nearly all skill positions on offense. Nearly all of the production statistics on offense. If Bennie Fowler stays, I think MSU will return 100% of passing, receiving, rushing yards and offensive scoring less Andrew Maxwell's early playing time. I'm sure our panelists will correct me if I'm wrong.]

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)

Going into the Minnesota game there was a whole bunch of stupid talk about the Spartan Defense not being legitimate. During the game there was nothing but how great MSU's defense is and how excellent they play. Now, we are back to the Spartan defense not being up to facing Miller and Hyde. Give me a break.

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)

I think a lot of people are getting caught up with the matchups and the noise that is going on about this game Saturday and they are losing sight of the bigger picture. MSU wants to have a perennial seat at the table. MSU fans gripe about how other teams and conferences get more respect and national love than the Spartans who are "just as good if not better" than those guys. Well boys and girls, here we are. We have beaten a path to the table. You want a seat... win.

These next two games (and you might even include the Oregon game next year in here too) are crucial to changing the national perception of MSU football. Look at Stanford. Jim Harbaugh took over that program the same year Coach D came to MSU. Going into 2010, Stanford was not getting much national love just like MSU. By the end of the year they were a top-5 team because they won (12-1 with not an overwhelmingly tough schedule but they won on the big stage in the Orange Bowl). The next season they got some love nationally and proved they deserved it (started #7 and finished #7). The following year they lost Andrew Luck and got a little less love (still top 20) but they went out and proved they were no worse off without Luck. Then this year with two bad losses, they are still getting respect and are in the top-10. Stanford changed the perception that they were a cute story. We have seen years where teams put together cute seasons (Iowa, GT, Cincinnati, UConn, etc.) but when they get their seat at the table they can't back up why they deserve to keep it. That is where MSU is standing right now. If MSU wins 2 of those 3 games (B1G Champ, bowl, and Oregon 2014), people will start to be convinced. Win all and people will believe.

5. Despite the great season in progress, Mark Dantonio has not been able to register measurable gains in recruiting, at least according to the five-star-system used to rate high school players. On the other hand, Langford and Lippett came in as three-star "athletes", and Dennard and Waynes arrived as two-star recruits. Do the benefits of a season most likely show up with high school juniors more than the current class of seniors? Do you care at all about the recruiting rankings for Michigan State? 

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)

Do we really care about what those recruiting sites say? They are set up to generate revenue, not give accurate assessments. Augment that with the rediculous scoring systems employed by Scout (and others) and the only conclusion is that they are in business to generate stuff people will pay to read. Are you aware that in the Scout rating system, a Junior College transfer is worth 1 point versus a 5-star worth 200?

MSU is getting the players that Dantonio and his staff believe can contribute to the success of the program. Unfortunately, MSU had a major transition year (QB and WRs) and an injury prone offensive line or we would not be having this conversation.

[See '76's Post, The Myth of the Widening Recruiting Gap]

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)

Recruiting at MSU is a funny thing. First real scouts will tell you that MSU targets guys that are "fits" for their system. They don't put the time and effort in pursuing someone that they don't see having a role in our system. And they are not going to sell any one a bill of goods they do not intend to deliver. They are going to tell you where they see you fitting and they are going to be real with recruits on what is going to be expected of them before they sniff playing time. Some recruits don't like where MSU pegs them. Some don't like the idea of not just being handed a spot. And some just are not interested. But those that buy in and those that do come, get it. They improve and they fit in a successful system and it works. I would be shocked to see MSU ever pull a top-5 class (not that I wouldn't like to see it) but it's not because players will never go to MSU. It's because Coach D and company are going to find guys that are "fits" that want to fit. That pool increases as you win and recruiting has been slowly trending up IMO and will continue on that path.

SpartanMan82 (See SM82's Post - Not All UM Fans are chUMps)

It would be nice to get 5-10 "four-star" recruits in each class. That may sound like a lot, but Dantonio offers more than that many each year, so it would be helpful if a few more of them signed up for the program. Our coaching staff has proven that they can develop players in their system, so it stands to reason that if incoming players had a little bit more athleticism coming in, they could become even better as part of the program.

All that said, the keys to watch in recruiting is how MSU does when offering players that other top programs have also offered. In other words, check the offer list when a player commits, to see what other choices that player had. If Dantonio gets commitments from players who had multiple high-level offers, that's a good sign. If not, they stick with turning lumps of coal into diamonds.

Part 1 Questions (Previous Issue):

1. It was the Michigan football players who started the on-field brawl in their game against Ohio STATE, yet only a single UM player was penalized in any way. This, despite multiple Wolverines who ran onto the field, several of whom made physical contact with Buckeyes. How does Michigan come out of this ugly incident relatively clean, while Ohio STATE is made to look like the bad guys?

2. MSU Punter, Mike Sadler was clearly roughed near the end of the Minnesota game, yet no penalty was called. This feels similar to the bogus pass-interference calls made against the Spartans at Notre Dame, and the multiple non-calls that should have been made against Taylor Lewan in the Michigan game. Do you believe that Michigan State plays on a level field when it comes to Big Tens referees and/or administrators? 

3. The Buckeye Defense looks pretty vulnerable this season, but what can MSU do about the Ohio STATE Offense? Miller and Hyde look pretty damn good. Give your best guess at the point total to be scored by the Buckeyes.

Click here for Part 1 panelist responses.

Click here for Part 3

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Countdown To Roses - The Championship Game, OSU vs MSU

The B1G Ten Conference Championship

Leaders Division Champion Ohio St. 12-0/8-0

versus

Legends Division Champion Michigan St. 11-1/8-0

This is the last of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.

Leaders Division:
Ohio State barely eked out the win versus Michigan. UM Coach Brady Hoke elected to go for the win but a Buckeye interception in the 2 point conversion play ended the threat of a major upset.
Legends Division:
Michigan State faced Minnesota in a smashmouth game 14-3.

Ohio State vs MSU: What does it look like? From the NCAA data we see:

Ohio St. rush offense (No. 2) 321.3 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 171.8 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. rush defense (No. 1) 64.8 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 156.7 yd/gm

Ohio St. pass offense (No. 83) 209.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 233.1 yd/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. pass defense (No. 9) 172.9 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 222.1 yd/gm

Ohio St. scoring offense (No. 3) 48.2 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.4 pt/gm
...versus …
Michigan St. scoring defense (No. 4) 11.8 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.8 pt/gm

Michigan St. rush offense (No. 47) 186.2 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. rush defense (No. 5) 100 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 159.6 yd/gm

Michigan St. pass offense (No. 95) 194 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 223.3 yd/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. pass defense (No. 98) 255.8 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 240.9 yd/gm

Michigan St. scoring offense (No. 63) 29.4 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.8 pt/gm
...versus …
Ohio St. scoring defense (No. 18) 20.3 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 27.7 pt/gm

The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of scoring a TD less than their season average and (2) the Buckeye offense will be seriously tested as will the Spartan defense and this is the story of the game. Note that the OSU passing game generally is held to fewer yards than their opponents' season averages (95%). Also OSU opponents generally put up better than season average passing yards when playing OSU (104%).

The data above, however, does little to tell the whole story. What follows is a statistical analysis of the performace of each team through the season. Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used.

The biggest question of the game is which wins, the irresistable force or the immovable object? In otherwords, the OSU rushing offense versus the MSU rushing defense or the MSU scoring defense versus the OSU scoring offense. Both teams have had claims of "inflated stats" made due to having "played nobody." Is this true?

OSU has played 12 teams. Listed with each team is their season average rushing defense and the performance of the OSU offense versus that team.

Buffalo               159.8 163%
San Diego St.     132.9 198%
California           188.6 176%
Florida A&M     195.6 198%
Wisconsin          101.3 190%
Northwestern     167.3 148%
Iowa                   120.8 226%
Penn St.              144.0 283%
Purdue                235.4 147%
Illinois                238.6 185%
Indiana               237.8 131%
Michigan            139.4 282%
Michigan St.        64.8

The performance Mean Value is 193.9% (MV) which means that OSU typically rushes for almost twice what their opponent typically allows. The Standard Deviation (SD) is 47.0%, which means the distribution of the data is fairly wide indicating the performance is somewhat inconsistent. A smaller SD indicates a higher consistency.

The analysis assumes that the statistical performance applies to any future opponent. Although the data available is not "statistically significant," which means there are fewer than 100 data, it has proven in the prior 3 games that this analysis may be relevant having successfully predicted 8 of 18 performance metrics. Given the nature of the analysis, a 30% to 40% success rate would be expected.

So, OSU has a performance MV of 193.9% with a SD of 47.0%. Applied to the MSU average rushing defense means OSU could rush for 95.2 to 156.1 yds with the most likely result being 125.6 yds. The probability associated with a MV +/- 1 SD is 68.4%.

Looking at it from the Spartan defense point of view we see:

Western Mich.    116.2   9%
South Fla.              96.8  92%
Youngstown St.  195.4  29%
Notre Dame        149.3  52%
Iowa                    188.6  12%
Indiana                201.8  46%
Purdue                  67.1  98%
Illinois                139.0  18%
Michigan            130.8 -37%
Nebraska             221.7  82%
Northwestern      172.4  46%
Minnesota           200.9  58%
Ohio St.               321.3     

The performance MV is 42.2% with a SD of 37.1%. Applying this to the OSU rushing average (with the same assumptions) shows MSU holding the OSU rushing offense to 16.1 to 254.8 yds with the most likely result being 135.5 yds.

To reconcile the 2 results we take the intersection of the distributions as bounded by the first sigma (+/-). This gives the following prediction:

Prediction: Ohio St. 131 yards rushing (+25/-35 yards)

That is how it has been done for the prior 3 games. Not wishing to bore everyone with excrutiating detail, here are the rest of the predictions. They all employ the same methodolgy and NCAA data.

Prediction: Ohio St. 164 yards passing (+54/-52 yards)
Prediction: Ohio St. 20 points (+6/-6 points)

Prediction: MSU 112 yards rushing (+20/-33 yards)
Prediction: MSU 212 yards passing (+67/-66 yards)
Prediction: MSU 21 points (+10/-9)

High/Low Ranges
OSU 26, MSU 12
MSU 31, OSU 14

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
OSU 20 vs MSU 21

Additional Reading:
Review Game 1
Review Game 2
Review Game 3
MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 (Post-Game)
MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 (Post-Game)
Minnesota at MSU (Anaylsis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota 3 at MSU 14 (Post-Game)

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