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Monday, February 24, 2014

TWO GAMES THAT "WENT MISSING" IN THE RECENT BASKETBALL SERIES BETWEEN MSU AND UM

Much of the excitement felt by Michigan Basketball fans right now is based on a very short viewpoint of the series between MSU and UM. As long as they define the world by increments of eight-games or three-games (or less), they wind up looking good and feeling good. We summed it up pretty good in this article right here.

But what about the two games NOT PLAYED between these two teams only a few years ago? Who remembers that the league office gave the Wolverines a little helpful protection against their arch-rival by scheduling only one league game in 2008 and 2009? One could call it a "quirk" in scheduling, or perhaps less politely, an example of the "Delany Doctrine", under which Michigan and Ohio STATE get special favors on a regular basis from the B1G.

Either way, those games weren't played, and there wasn't much of a good way to bring it up until now. What were we going to say back then, when MSU was winning more than 75% of the games played between the teams? (If we brought it up when it was happening, we would have looked like greedy bullies.)

But I was aware of the missing games at the time they weren't played, much as I was aware the the UM football team had a rapist member ever since the assault was first reported.

Let's give a round of applause to the Wolverines for winning the last three games, but since the battle-cry now is "6 of the last 8", let's take a look at what may have been plausible had the teams played the normal two-game set in those two recent seasons.

  • In those single-game seasons, the Spartans won both games by double-digits, 27 points total. At face-value, it's reasonable to assume that a second game in each season would have gone green. If those rematches had been played both years, with similar results, the "6 of the last 8" would have to give way to "6 of the last 14", focusing the spotlight on very recent success by UM.

  • Or what if the two single-game seasons had been scheduled for 2011 or 2014, when Michigan won both games. With only one rivalry win in each of those two seasons, the mantra would change from "6 of the last 8" to "4 of the last 6" which would also added up to "4 of the last 10".

Whether it was a scheduling-quirk or protection from the league office, the recent irregularity with games-played in the series contributes to the current viewpoints. This decision has nothing to do with on-court performances or even off-court issues; it's just an administrative arrangement that served to make UM look a little bit more dominant than they have actually been in real life.

But hey, the Bluebloods won fair-and-square, and that certainly makes it three in a row by an average of five points per game. Awesome, baby. Now UM fans need to decide whether they can really get pumped about rugby wins in the 1800s when jaw-jacking about their football program.


If you can't look back 10 years in
basketball, you definitely can't look back
100 years in football.




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Sunday, February 23, 2014

MICHIGAN PULLS EVEN WITH MICHIGAN STATE IN MEN'S BASKETBALL RIVALRY SERIES

The lopsided nature of basketball between Michigan State and Michigan has evened out somewhat based on the recent performance of the men's basketball teams. While the Spartan women still have a commanding lead over UM by every measurement, the Wolverine men have now pulled even with the Spartan men. It's possible that Michigan will finish ahead of MSU in the men's basketball conference standings for the first time since the 1990s.

We offered a five-year comparison before the first meeting this year, and a ten-year comparison along with a 25-game summary before the game just played. The short-run trend is clear, with UM winning six of the last eight games, despite being outscored by MSU in that same time span. It's this most recent short stretch, featuring a pair of one-point wins by Michigan, that is leading many wolverine boosters to claim dominance in the series.

However, as much as they have won 6 of the last 8, they have also won only 6 of the last 12. So how you view the series clearly depends on what time-frame used for comparison. We offer three frameworks for review, each covering a different length of time.


The Short View (5-8 games)
Michigan has come out on top more times in the last few meetings, winning three-of-the-last-five and/or six-of-the-last-eight games. By any recent comparison, UM has the lead in games won, despite giving up two double-digit wins to MSU without any of their own. Most short-term game-counts that favor Michigan include two victories by one-point each that have the effect of counter-balancing the big Spartan wins in the same time period.

Advantage:  UM

The Intermediate View (The Beilein Era)
The series is now tied at 7-7 since John Beilein was named coach at Michigan. Michigan State has outscored UM by 54 points over the last 14 games, and leads 6-5 in games decided by more than one point, all double-digit victories. The Wolverines have only one win by more than ten points, and it was in the second game Beilein coached against Izzo.

Advantage:  EVEN

The Long View (21st Century)
There have been 26 games since New Year's Eve 2000, and the Spartans lead 17-9, outscoring the Wolverines by 248 points. 15 of the MSU wins have been by double-digits, while four of the UM wins have been by two points or less.
Advantage:  MSU


You could go back further in time and still find a few more Spartan wins in a row, then the series would "even out again" in the 1990s, though many of those illegal Wolverine wins have been revoked by the NCAA, leaving their true status as games-played somewhat ambiguous. But there is no reason to track back in time to the days of the covered wagon, as UM fanatics like to do with their so-called "All-Time Wins" record in football. There is really no reason to go back to the days when our predecessors were called the "Aggies" and when MSU didn't actually exist.

(If someone wants to count up the series record from the time Michigan State joined the Big Ten, please go ahead and share with us. Otherwise, we'll use the 21st Century as the long-view measuring stick.)

So the Spartans failed to stem the tide of single-digit wins by UM as they lost the regular season series for the second time this century. We will update the series comparisons when both tournaments are finished.




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TOM IZZO LEADS JOHN BEILEIN HEADING INTO TODAY'S GAME

Seems like everybody agrees today's game is basically a "toss-up", with Dawson out, Appling ailing, and the home-court advantage to Michigan. Some people have said this is what they wanted, an even-steven close-as-can-be series, where either team can win at any time, and the stakes are high either way. Sort of like North Carolina and Duke.

Not me, I prefer the game played on March 4, 2000 to serve as the template for all future games.

But anyway, in the run-up to this one, we've shown you the decade-long comparison of the two programs, and we've summed up the results of the past 25 games in the series. We'll leave you with one more note, the record of Tom Izzo against John Beilein prior to this match-up.

  1. Izzo leads in games won by a 7-6 margin
  2. Izzo's teams lead in points scored by a 63-point margin


So, if UM beats MSU by 63 points today, the series will be "even", at least since
Beilein took over at Michigan.

Let's see what happens.



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Friday, February 21, 2014

SPARTAN WOMEN CLINCH 12th CONSECUTIVE 10-WIN CONFERENCE SEASON

The Michigan State Women's Basketball team won their 10th B1G game of the season last night, beating Wisconsin 76-66. This marks the 12th season in a row that the Spartans have won at least 10 league games, the longest active streak in the conference. They have had 13 consecutive winning seasons.

MSU remains in second place, tied with Nebraska, but they can finish the season atop the league standings if the following events happen:

  1. Michigan State must win its final three games, two of which are at home, and all three of which are against teams ranked 7-8-9 in the conference right now.
  2. Nebraska must beat Penn State on Monday, or the Nittany Lions must lose their season finale to Michigan. Nebraska was the pre-season favorite to win the league, and the Cornhuskers are ranked #17 in the nation with a 20-5 record. That game will be played in Lincoln.

The Spartans are led by Seniors and Freshmen, with a collection of key contributors in the Junior class. Six players scored in double-digits against the Badgers.

The game was close until the final minute, as Wisconsin stayed within 10 points all game long. But MSU took a lead into the final five minutes and won, making them 98-1 finishing games successfully while defending a lead. The Spartans have won 49 games in a row when leading with five minutes to play.

Some other notes about Suzy Merchant's ballclub:

  • MSU is 72-5 under Merchant when scoring at least 70 points.
  • MSU's six road Big Ten wins this season ties for the most in Merchant's seven seasons. MSU is now 37-21 in her tenure in road conference games.
  • The Spartans improved to 37-12 in February in Merchant's seven seasons.
  • MSU is 16-0 this season when shooting more free throws than its opponent. They are also 14-0 when attempting at least 18 free throws.

Michigan State returns to action on Monday night when they host Minnesota at the Breslin Center.





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Thursday, February 20, 2014

RACIAL TENSION PREVAILS AT UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Race relations in this country have been a hot-topic touchstone for more than a century. It's difficult to find a "good way" to discuss the problem. Some people even believe that it's not a "problem" anymore.

Well it seems to be a pretty big problem at the University of Michigan, even these days. We know this from UM students who are protesting the situation in Ann Arbor this week. In a nutshell, these students feel like it's quite a problem nowadays, and I suppose it's fair to say "they should know". After all, the student protesters are African-American.

Maybe this doesn't have anything to do with sports, but then again, maybe it does. Take a look at the picture that's part of the first article linked above (here it is again). Look at the sign being held by the woman on the right. Read the hand-written statement that says "I'm more than just a wide receiver", and notice that signed initials, "D.N." We can't be sure who wrote that statement on that sign, but there is a wide-receiver on the Michigan football team named Dennis Norfleet.

Many of us recall the affirmative-action challenge lawsuit that went all the way up to the United States Supreme Court. The University of Michigan won that case, meaning they were not illegally applying admission benefits to racially-defined minorities. (Another version of the dispute is back on the SCOTUS docket.) But that was a way of helping those groups, not hurting them. So why are black folks at UM feeling under-appreciated these days?

Well maybe it's because of events like this one, where an on-campus fraternity hosted a special party to basically make fun of black culture. Most of us would have to admit that we'd more likely expect such a racist carnival to be held in Mississippi or Alabama, but not "up north" in Michigan. But there you have it.

The UM student body is about 4% African-American, compared to about 8% of the MSU student body. Due to the larger number of students at Michigan State, there are about three times as many black Spartans as there are black Wolverines. For whatever that's worth.

Anyway, some people will call this "pot-shotting" or picking on Michigan, but let's remember how much they sanctify themselves and glorify one another on a regular basis. They truly think they are special, yet this is another example of how they actually have plenty of warts and blemishes and problems, and really, they aren't so much different from the rest of us.






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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

WILL JOHN BEILEIN COMPLAIN ABOUT HIS GAME SCHEDULE AGAIN THIS WEEK?

Michigan Basketball Coach John Beilein is becoming a bit of a whiner these days. Have you noticed?

First he was complaining about his team schedule, the one made up by the B1G conference, just because he didn't like the way all of the games were laid out. He seemed to think it made things too tough for his team, even though every team gets the same ups and downs from the league office each year.

The he complained that the Ohio STATE folks were too...well, they were too...wait a minute, what's that word again......ARROGANT? Beilein didn't like the pre-game video produced and played for the arena spectators. (Even though he didn't see it himself.) He seemed to think the Buckeyes were, in some way, unsportsmanlike, or something like that. Then he proclaimed that nothing of that sort would ever happen while he was at Michigan.

But it's okay with Big Bee if Nick Stauskas flips-off the opposing crowd with a goodbye kiss, right?

Then he started complaining about the TIPOFF TIMES for his games, suggesting that they were having difficulty with certain starting times, even though both teams start at the same time. Never heard this one before from anybody.

Now that Beilein's team has a full week off, resting at home for an extended break from the road, before playing their number-one rival, Michigan State. That's right, the Spartans have to travel for a game on Thursday night before a two-day-turnaround to play in Ann Arbor. Using the "Beilein Doctrine", Tom Izzo should apply for relief from the United Nations due to the bad schedule draw.

By comparison, UM had 11 days off from the road before playing MSU in East Lansing.

Will John Beilein be complaining about the "tough schedule" now that he has been resting comfortably in his office, getting his team ready for the big game with nothing else to do for the week beforehand? Or is the schedule just fine-and-dandy with him right now?









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THE LAST 25 GAMES OF MSU vs UM MEN'S BASKETBALL

Looking ahead to the next game between Michigan State and Michigan in men's basketball this weekend, and we continue our comparison of the teams in this long rivalry. Let's review the last 25 games between these teams.

Our 25-game span covers 13 years, a time-frame that offers a good-sized medium-range view of the series. It also represents every game played between these teams in the 21st Century.

Some would like a shorter viewpoint, so we've broken those 25 games into five sequential five-game sets. You can get a good sense of the series by viewing it in five-game intervals.

Here are the outcomes of the last 25 games between MSU and UM in Men's Basketball, listed in chronological order with the winner and final margin (bottom = most recent):


(2-01-00) MSU by 20
(3-04-00) MSU by 51
(1-30-01) MSU by 27
(3-03-01) MSU by 21
(1-30-02) MSU by 27
  • MSU 5-0 in games
  • MSU +146 points

(1-26-03) UM by 2
(1-17-04) MSU by 17
(2-24-04) MSU by 3
(1-27-05) MSU by 11
(2-12-05) MSU by 15
  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +34 points

(1-25-06) UM by 5
(2-18-06) MSU by 19
(2-13-07) MSU by 15
(2-27-07) UM by 11
(1-27-08) MSU by 15
  • MSU 3-2 in games
  • MSU +33 points

(2-10-09) MSU by 12
(1-26-10) MSU by 1
(3-07-10) MSU by 16
(1-27-11) UM by 4
(3-05-11) UM by 7
  • MSU 3-2 in games
  • MSU +18 points

(1-17-12) UM by 1
(2-05-12) MSU by 10
(2-12-13) MSU by 23
(3-03-13) UM by 1
(1-25-14) UM by 5

  • UM 3-2 in games
  • MSU +26 points


Here are a few things we can conclude from reviewing the list of actual games played:

  • Over the last 10 games, MSU and UM are tied at 5-5 in games (but the Spartans have outscored the Wolverines by 44 points).
  • Over the last 15 games, MSU leads UM 8-7 (outscoring them by 77 points).
  • Over the last 20 games, MSU leads UM 12-8 (outscoring them by 111 points).
  • Over the last 25 games, MSU leads UM 17-8 (outscoring them by 257 points in 25 games). The Spartans have had at least one double-digit victory during all but two calendar years since that time (2003, 2011).
  • It's only the last five-game set that Michigan leads, and then it's only 3-2, and Michigan State has scored 26 more points in those games.
  • The Wolverines have won by double-digits over the Spartans only one time since Monica Lewinsky became a household name, and that one game was seven years ago.
  • 15 of the MSU wins have been by double-digits, while four of the UM wins have been by two points or less.

Here is a comparison of the two basketball programs over the past 10 seasons:






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