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Sunday, August 9, 2015

GLENN SCHEMBECHLER HAD EASIER ROAD THAN MARK DANTONIO - PART 4

The fourth in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler.

A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that Schemp was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't win 11 BT titles in 13 seasons.

While some facts were made, this is just another example of chUMp cherry picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect.

Looking at the total record puts things in a different light.

In Part I the evolution of college football rules was presented, setting the context and relevant factors needed for a fair comparison. We saw the season is longer, there are more bowls and championship games, and teams play more games than they did nearly 50 years ago.
In Part II the overall records were examined. We noted that Shemp got over half his wins over teams with losing season records.
In Part III the bowl records were examined and we saw clearly that Shemp rarely was up to winning the big games.

Now, down to the nitty-gritty: 13-2 and 21-8. That those titles were earned in those long-ago years is factual, but are the titles Shemp received equivalent to the titles Coach Dantonio has and might receive?

To determine this, the conference record is examined. First, the facts:

StatisticBo SchembechlerMark DantonioNotes
Conference
Titles
51
Conference
Co-Titles
81
Division
Titles
02[1]
Conference
Record
142-24-3
0.8491
46-20-0
0.6970
[2]
Conference
Games/year
8.008.25
Perfect
BT Record
31[3]

[1] BT CCG, division titles were started and co-championships were eliminated in 2011.
[2] The 1971 UM at MSU game was out-of-conference. The B1G Ten only scheduled 7 conference games that year.
[3] No losses and no ties. Schemp had 2 additional seasons where the conference record was blemished with a single tie.

Trivia questions:
  1. What was Schemp's 21-year record versus MSU?
  2. What is Coach Dantonio's record versus UM?
  3. Who had the easier road?
Answers:
  1. Schemp (21 seasons: 0.7955) was 17-4-0 (0.8095) versus MSU (21 seasons: 0.5192).
  2. Coach Dantonio (8 seasons: 0.7075) is 6-2-0 (0.7500) versus UM (8 seasons: 0.5446).
  3. Schemp
Schemp played fewer conference games per season. The 13 of 21 versus 2 of 8 hides that fact.

The question is: just how good were those conference opponents?

Bo SchembechlerMark Dantonio
BT TeamOverall
Record
Bowl Eligible
Bowl Record
UM
versus
Overall
Record
Bowl Eligible
Bowl Record
MSU
versus
All Teams952-1110-47
0.4625
78
21-28-0
142-24-3
0.8491
737-589-0
0.5558
74
29-41-0
46-20-0
0.6970
Illinois101-125-8
0.4487
8
1-4-0
19-1-1
0.9286
43-57-0
0.4300
4
2-2-0
3-0-0
1.0000
Indiana88-142-3
0.3841
6
2-2-0
16-1-0
0.9412
33-64-0
0.3402
1
0-1-0
6-0-0
1.0000
Iowa112-122-6
0.4792
9
4-4-0
13-3-1
0.7941
60-42-0
0.5882
7
3-3-0
3-4-0
0.4286
Marylandn/an/an/a45-56-0
0.4455
5
2-3-0
1-0-0
1.0000
Michigan194-48-5
0.7955
21
5-12-0
n/a55-46-0
0.5446
5
2-3-0
6-2-0
0.7500
Michigan St118-109-7
0.5192
12
2-3-0
17-4-0
0.8095
75-31-0
0.7075
8
4-4-0
n/a
Minnesota100-127-5
0.4418
9
1-2-0
19-2-0
0.9048
42-59-0
0.4158
5
0-5-0
4-1-0
0.8000
Nebraskan/an/an/a71-35-0
0.6698
7
3-4-0
2-2-0
0.5000
Northwestern49-177-3
0.2205
2
0-0-0
14-0-0
1.0000
56-45-0
0.5545
6
1-4-0
5-2-0
0.7143
Ohio St.181-56-5
0.7583
20
7-10-0
11-9-1
0.5476
88-18-0
0.8302
8
4-4-0
2-4-0
0.3333
Penn St.n/an/an/a69-33-0
0.6765
8
3-3-0
3-2-0
0.6000
Purdue108-120-4
0.4741
6
3-1-0
16-3-0
0.8421
38-61-0
0.3838
3
2-1-0
6-0-0
1.0000
Rutgersn/an/an/a61-42-0
0.5922
7
5-2-0
1-0-0
1.0000
Wisconsin95-132-6
0.4206
6
1-2-0
18-1-0
0.9474
76-31-0
0.7103
8
2-6-0
4-3-0
0.5714

Look at the data again. What jumps out?
  • Schemp had a winning record against all 7 conference opponents.
  • Only 2 of the 7 conference teams had a winning record during the Schemp era.
  • Schemp had a perfect record versus 1 conference opponent, Northwestern. Northwestern had a 21 season record of 0.2205.
  • Coach Dantonio has a winning record against 10 of 13 conferenct opponents and is 2-2-0 versus Nebraska.
  • 9 of the 13 conference opponents have winning records over the past 8 seasons.
  • Coach Dantonio has a prefect record versus 5 conference opponents.
The aggregate record of opposing B1G Ten teams during the Schemp era was 952-1110-47 (0.4625). Subtracting out the UM record versus the conference gives 928-967-44 (0.4899). So those 13 B1G Ten titles were "earned" versus conference opponents that, as a whole, gave nobody any real competition. The 21-28 (0.4286) bowl record by Schemp's BT opponents is a reflection of that.

During Schemp's 21 years, only 2 B1G Ten opponents achieved 0.5000 or better season records in 11 or more seasons (greater than half). Ohio State. Michigan State.

The aggregate record of B1G Ten teams during the Dantonio's tenure to date is 737-589-0 (0.5558). Subtracting out the MSU record versus the conference gives 717-543-0 (0.5690). The 2/3 B1G Ten titles were "earned" versus conference opponents that, as a whole, were much more competitive. Note: MSU's conference opponents had a 29-41 (0.4143) bowl record.

The conference opposition Coach Dantonio faced had only 3 teams that failed to achieve a 0.5000 record in 5 or more of the past 8 seasons.

Summarizing:

Schemp's 0.8500 conference record was versus an aggregate 0.4899 record while Dantonio's 0.6970 conference record was versus an aggregate 0.5690 record.

Schemp had more seasons, which were shorter, and his conference opponents were definitely weaker.

Coach Dantonio has adjusted to 2 conference expansions and 2 division realignments, neither of which Schemp had to deal with.

In 4 of his 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio could earn a conference championship only through the CCG. That is another challenge Schemp never faced.

Coach Dantonio's teams played longer seasons and stiffer competition. B1G Ten rule changes kept MSU out of 2 Rose Bowls and prevented Coach Dantonio from hanging a second BT banner. Those are relevant facts.

Schemp's conference opponents were much less successful than those Coach Dantonio has faced. While Schemp has the better overall record and more titles, Coach Dantonio faced much stiffer competition and longer seasons. Even with that schedule, Coach Dantonio bested Schemp's record more than once.

What about the out of conference opponents?

In those 21 seasons, Schemp's teams faced 34 different non-conference opponents racking up a 51-24-2 (0.6753). Those 34 teams over the 21 years had an aggregate record of 4430-3535-148 (0.5552). Subtracting out the UM games, the non-conference opponents record is 4406-3483-146 (0.5574).

In 8 seasons, Dantonio led teams faced 24 different non-conference opponents going 29-11-0 (0.7250). Dantonio's record includes 5 wins over 4 different FCS teams, one of which (2 wins) has recently moved into FBS. Taking the other 3 games out of the conversation, the FBS record is 0.7027. Those 25 teams in the past 8 years have an aggregate record of 1350-1056-0 (0.5611). Without the FCS teams, and subtracting out the MSU record, the non-conference opponents record is 1334-1027-0 (0.5650).

Yes, Schemp has more BT titles. But when one looks at the whole picture, the one thing that is perfectly clear...

Schemp had the easier road.

It isn't over. It will never be over here. It's just starting.

Part 1, The Evolution of College Football Rules.
Part 2, The Season Records.
Part 3, The Bowl Records.

Part 4, The In-conference Records.


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Friday, August 7, 2015

GLENN SCHEMBECHLER HAD EASIER ROAD THAN MARK DANTONIO - PART 3

The third in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler

A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that Schemp was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't win 11 BT title in 13 seasons.

While some facts were made, this is just another example of chUMp cherry picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect.

Looking at the total record puts things in a different light.

In Part I the evolution of college football rules was presented, setting the context and relevant factors needed for a fair comparison. We saw the season is longer, there are more bowls and championship games, and teams play more games than they did nearly 50 years ago.

In Part II the overall records were examined. We noted that Shemp got over half his wins over teams with losing season records.

In this part, the bowl record is examined. First, the facts:

StatisticBo SchembechlerMark DantonioNotes
NC Titles00[1]
versus NC
opponents
0-50-1[2]
Bowl
Appearances
17 of 21
(80.9%)
8 of 8
(100%)
[3]
Bowl
Record
5-12-0
0.2941
4-4-0
0.5000
Rose Bowl2-8-01-0-0
"BCS" Bowls3-10-02-0-0[4]
Bowl Game
Streak
158
Bowl Win
Streak
24
Bowl Loss
Streak
54

[1] Starting in 1998, the National Championship was awarded based on a designated game that also eliminated co-championships. In 2014, the NC title was won by winning 2 games in a 4 team playoff.
[2] The Spartans led by Coach Dantonio not only faced the National Championship Playoff winner but also the NCG runner-up both in the same season.
[3] Prior to 1975, the B1G Ten restricted post-season bowl appearances. Schemp's bowl streak started with the 1975 season. UM was bowl eligible in all 21 seasons Schemp was coach.
[4] The term "BCS" is used for comparative purposes and includes appearances in the Rose, Fiesta, Orange, or Sugar Bowls. The BCS was in existence from 1998 through 2013.

Why is this relevant?

Post season bowls give national exposure to football programs. Post season bowls extend the season for teams selected both by providing one more game but also for the extra practices the team is allocated. These factors give teams competitive advantages in recruiting, alumni donations, and development over teams that stay home.

The most significant factor is the number of teams playing in bowl games. In modern times, more teams benefit from the extra practice, the game itself, and the shorter time between the end of one season and the next, and this results in a higher overall level of competition in college football.

In context, prior to the division split in 1976, 250 or so teams vied for the 11/12 bowls or about 10% of all teams played in the post season. In present time, 128 teams vie for the 38 bowls; nearly 6 in 10.

Breaking it down:
Bo SchembechlerMark Dantonio
CategoryBowl Eligible
(%)
Bowls Played
(%)
Bowl RecordBowl Eligible
(%)
Bowls Played
(%)
Bowl Record
(WL%)
Notes
Team21
(100%)
17
(81.0%)
5-12-0
0.2941
8
(100%)
8
(100%)
4-4-0
0.5000
[1]
B1G
Opponents
78
(43.3%)
49
(25.9%)
21-28-0
0.4286
74
(71.2%)
69
(66.3%)
29-41-0
0.4143
[1]
OOC
Opponents
429
(60.1%)
264
(37.0%)
138-118-8
0.5379
129
(67.2%)
101
(52.6%)
55-46-0
0.5446
[2]
All
Opponents
507
(56.1%)
313
(34.7%)
159-146-8
0.5208
203
(68.8%)
170
(57.4%)
84-87-0
0.4912
[2]

[1] Prior to 1975, the B1G Ten restricted post-season bowl appearances.
[2] Includes bowl games played versus UM/MSU.
From 1969 through 1989 there were 303 post season bowl games or an average of 14.4 bowls per year.
  • 1969 thru 1977: 11, 12 or 13 bowls
  • 1978 thru 1983: 15 or 16 bowls
  • 1984 thru 1989: 18 bowls
From 2007 to present there were 279 post season bowl games or an average of 34.9 bowls per year.
  • 2007: 32 bowls
  • 2008 thru 2009: 34 bowls
  • 2010 thru 2013: 35 bowls
  • 2014: 38 bowls plus the NC game
As an aside...

  • Schemp played 8 of the 13 teams that won NC or co-NC titles during his 21 years (19 of 26 titles). Schemp went 0-5 versus the seasons' NC teams.
  • Coach Dantonio played 2 of the 6 teams that won NC titles in the past 8 seasons (4 of 8 titles). Coach Dantonio went 0-1 versus the seasons' NC teams.
Now, for the rest of the story. The Schemp era bowl record was 5-12-0, 2-8-0 in the Rose Bowl, 3-10-0 in "BCS" bowls.
  • 6 bowls versus teams with a better regular season record, 1-5 (0.1667)
  • 2 bowls versus teams with an equal regular season record, 2-0 (1.0000)
  • 9 bowls versus teams with a worse regular season record, 2-7 (0.2222)
Dantonio is currently 4-4-0 in bowl games, 1-0-0 in the Rose Bowl, 2-0-0 in BCS bowls.
  • 4 bowls versus teams with a better regular season record, 2-2 (0.5000)
  • 1 bowls versus teams with an equal regular season record, 1-0 (1.0000)
  • 3 bowls versus teams with a worse regular season record, 1-2 (0.3333)
The take-aways?
  • The percentage of B1G Ten teams that were bowl eligible during the past 8 seasons was much greater than during the Schemp era.
  • A much greater percentage of Coach Dantonio's opponents benefitted from post-season bowl games than Schemp's opponents.
  • Coach Dantonio is much more successful in post-season bowls, than Schemp ever was.
  • Coach Dantonio faced superior opponents in half of his bowls and posted a 0.5000 record.
  • Schemp faced superior opponents in only 1/3 of his bowls and posted a 0.1667 record.
Schemp was adept at trouncing weak opponents, but when it came right down to it, Schemp just could not win the big games, at least not on a regular basis, even though...

Schemp had the easier road.

We are heading towards the finish line - 13 versus 2 Big Ten Championships...
Part 3, The Bowl Records.
Part 4, The In-conference Records. (coming soon)


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Wednesday, August 5, 2015

GLENN SCHEMBECHLER HAD EASIER ROAD THAN MARK DANTONIO - PART 2

The second in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler

A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that Schemp was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't possibly win eleven of the next thirteen conference championships.

While some facts were made, this is just another example of chUMp cherry picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect.

Looking at the total record puts things in a different light.

In Part I the evolution of college football rules was presented, setting the context and relevant factors needed for a fair comparison. We saw the season is longer, there are more bowls and championship games, and teams play more games than they did nearly 50 years ago.

In this part, the total record is examined. The facts:

StatisticBo SchembechlerMark DantonioNotes
Seasons1969-1989
(21)
2007-2014
(8)
[1]
Record194-48-5
0.7955
75-31-0
0.7075
Average
Games/year
11.7613.25
Undefeated
Seasons
00[2]
Longest
Season
11-2-0
0.8462
13-1-0
0.9286
Best
Season
11-1-0
0.9167
bowl: L
13-1-0
0.9286
bowl: W
CCG: W
Worst
Season
6-6-0
0.5000
bowl: L
6-7-0
0.4615
bowl: L
10+ Win
Seasons
11 of 21
52.4%
4 of 8
50.0%

[1] Dantonio is entering his 9th season.
[2] Schemp's 1973 record was 10-0-1, which technically counts as undefeated. Schemp's 1971 record was 11-0 in regular season play. Season ended with a bowl loss.

What are the take-aways from this data-base?
  • Schemp has the better record, but with 13 more seasons, Coach Dantonio will have coached 12 more games, not including any future bowls or championship games.
  • Coach Dantonio has coached the best season.
  • Coach Dantonio has coached the longest season.
  • The percentage of 10+ win seasons is nearly the same. If the Spartans post 10 or more wins in 2015, Coach Dantonio will best Schemp in that category, too.
  • Both had a 6-win worst season. Both lost the bowl game.
Schemp achieved a 0.7955 winning percentage with a 194-48-5. For Coach Dantonio to match or better that, the Spartans will have a 21-year record of 220-55-0. Given all of the next 13 years in this scenario, a bowl game would be played every year.

Schemp achieved his record with an average of 9.24 wins per year. Coach Dantonio achieved his record with an average of 9.375 wins per year. Because of the number of games played in the game today, to match Schemp's winning percentage, Coach Dantonio will need a 21-year average of 10.47 wins per year.

But there is more: Strength of schedule.

StatisticBo SchembechlerMark DantonioNotes
Opponents4337
Opponents' 21-yr
Aggregate Record
5382-4645-195
0.5360
2163-1676-0
0.5634
Opponents w/ 21-yr
Winning Records
23
(53.5%)
24
(64.9%)
Team Record vs.
Winning Records
13-7-3
(0.6304)
15-7-2
(0.6667)
Game Record vs.
"Winning Teams"
57-36-2
(0.6105)
42-29-0
(0.5915)
Opponents w/ 21-yr
Losing Records
20
(46.5%)
13
(35.1%)
Team Record vs.
Losing Records
18-0-2
(0.9500)
12-1-0
(0.9231)
Game Record vs.
"Losing Teams"
137-12-3
(0.9112)
33-2-0
(0.9429)
FCS Opponents
(games)
04
(5)
[1]
[1] 3 of the 4 FCS opponents MSU has played have 8-year winning records. In 4 of 5 games the FCS opponent had a winning season when MSU played them. 1 of the 4 teams (2 games) is now a FBS program.

Schemp faced 43 different opponents in his 21 seasons. 23 (53.5%) of those teams posted a 21-year aggregate winning record. Schemp had winning records versus 13 (56.5%) of those teams. Coach Dantonio has faced 37 different opponents in his 8 seasons. 24 (64.9%) of those teams have aggregate winning records during Coach Dantonio's tenure and the Spartans have winning records versus 15 (62.5%) of those teams.

Schemp posted perfect records versus 21 opponents (48.8%). His best showing was 14-0-0 versus Northwestern. Northwestern's 0.2205 record in that 21-year span ranked 43rd of the 43 opponents. Coach Dantonio has so far posted perfect records versus 21 opponents (56.8%). His best showing was versus Purdue at 6-0-0. Purdue's 0.3838 record for the past 8 years ranks 32nd of the 38 opponents faced to date.

20 of Schemp's opponents (46.5%) had 21-year losing records and Schemp had a winning record versus 18 (90.0%) of them. Coach Dantonio has faced 13 teams with 8-year losing records and has winning records versus 12 (92.3%) of them. Schemp's worst showing was 0-1-0 versus North Carolina. UNC was 0.5806 during the 21-year span. UNC was 8-3-1 and UM was 8-4-0 the season they played. Coach Dantonio's worst showing was 0-1-0 versus California. California is 0.4500 over the past 8 seasons and both schools achieved 9-4-0 records the season they met.

Only 2 teams (4.6%) Schemp faced had better 21-year records than UM. Schemp went 1-1-0 versus them. In comparison, 6 teams (16.2%) Coach Dantonio has faced have better records over the 8 years he has been at MSU. Coach Dantonio is 9-10-0 versus those teams. 4 of those 6 teams have better overall records than Schemp's two best opponents. Georgia has posted the same record and MSU under Coach Dantonio is 1-1-0 versus the Bulldogs. Both were bowl games.

It's clear from the data that Schemp's opponents were less successful than those Coach Dantonio has faced. While Schemp has the better overall record, Coach Dantonio faced a measureably more difficult schedule and even with that schedule bested Schemp's record more than once.

Breaking it down by season wins and losses:

Bo SchembechlerMark Dantonio
Opponent
Season Wins
Games
Played
% of
Total Games
RecordW-L %Games
Played
% of
Total Games
RecordW-L %
0-49037.2%90-1-10.98372624.5%25-1-00.9615
5-913052.6%100-27-30.78085450.9%41-13-00.7593
10-152510.1%4-20-10.18002624.5%9-17-00.3462
Opponent
Season Losses
Games
Played
% of
Total Games
RecordW-L %Games
Played
% of
Total Games
RecordW-L %
8-124819.4%48-0-01.00002624.5%25-1-00.9615
3-716667.2%144-22-40.85546561.3%44-21-00.6769
0-23313.4%6-26-10.19701514.2%6-9-00.4000

To make a fair comparison, the 11-game season versus 12-game season has to be factored in. Schemp faced 25 teams (10.1% of games played) that had 10 or more wins in the season they played. 4-20-1 (0.1800). Coach Dantonio has faced 18 (17.0%) with 11 or more wins in the season. 7-11-0 (0.3889).

What's the takeaway?

4-20-1, 6-26-1: Seems like Schemp just could not win the big games, at least not on a regular basis.

Breaking it down by season win-loss record:

Bo SchembechlerMark Dantonio
Opponent
Winning %
Games
Played
% Total
Games
RecordW-L %Games
Played
% Total
Games
RecordW-L %
0.0000-0.29995020.2%50-0-01.00001817.0%18-0-01.0000
0.3000-0.49997430.0%71-2-10.96621917.9%17-2-00.8947
0.5000-0.79999538.5%69-23-30.74215450.9%34-20-00.6296
0.8000-1.00002811.3%4-23-10.16071514.2%6-9-00.4000

Trivia questions:
  1. How many winless teams did Schemp play?
  2. How many winless teams did Coach Dantonio play?
  3. Who had the easier road?
Answers:
  1. 6: Illinois (1969); Iowa (1973); Northwestern (1978, 1980, 1981); Indiana (1984).
  2. Zero. None.
  3. Schemp.
Read on...

In the modern context, to qualify as bowl eligible, teams need a 0.5000 regular season record or better. Whether an 11 or 12 game season, bowl eligible teams had to win 6 or more games.

In his 21 seasons, Schemp faced 43 different opponents in 247 games, including bowl games. Only 123 (49.8%) games were played versus opponents that would have been bowl eligible today. Schemp was 73-46-4 (0.6098) versus bowl eligible teams and 121-2-1 (0.9798) versus teams with losing season records. Schemp did carry on the UM tradition of beating up weak opponents.

In 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio has faced 37 different opponents in 106 games, including bowl and championship games. In 69 (65.1%) of those games, the opponents were bowl eligible. Coach Dantonio has compiled a 40-29-0 (0.5797) record versus bowl eligible teams and 35-2-0 (0.9459) versus teams with losing season records.

Taking it down a notch, 27.5% of the teams Schemp faced had seasons no worse than 1 fewer wins than UM. The record was 29-38-1 (0.4338). 46.2% of Coach Dantonio's opponents had seasons no worse than 1 fewer wins when they played. MSU, so far, is 23-26-0 (0.4694).

In his 21 seasons, Schemp played 43 games (17.4%) against teams that had season records equal to or better than UM in the season they played. Schemp went 12-30-1 (0.2907) versus peer competition. Schemp was 182-18-4 (0.9020) versus inferior competition.

In 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio has played 39 games (36.8%) versus teams with equal or better season records compiling a 16-23-0 (0.4103) record. Versus the less successful teams, Coach Dantonio was 59-8-0 (0.8806). Coach Dantonio is playing more than twice the number of games per season against elite competition with a better win-loss record.

No question about it...

Schemp had the easier road.


But wait! There's more:
Part 1 -  The Evolution of College Football Rules.
Part 2 -  The Total Records.
Part 3 -  The Bowl Records.
Part 4 -  The In-conference Records.




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Sunday, August 2, 2015

GLENN SCHEMBECHLER HAD EASIER ROAD THAN MARK DANTONIO - PART 1

The first in a multi-part series by MSUSpartan76
detailing a variety facts about the illusion of Glenn Schembechler

A few weeks ago on the UM page of MLive.com, a Skunkbear went on a diatribe about how great Bo Schembechler was and how Mark Dantonio could never be his equal. This poser asserted that "Schemp" was far superior because of 13 BT Championships in 21 years and Coach Dantonio was genuinely inferior because of only 2 titles in 8 seasons. He managed the simple arithmetic of 13-2 is 11 and 21-8 is 13 and used that to "prove" Coach Dantonio was vastly inferior to Schemp since Coach D. can't win 11 BT titles in 13 seasons.
While some supporting facts were offered, this is just another example of chUMp cherry-picking and twisting reality to give utter disrespect. What are the facts?
  • Schemp coached 21 seasons at UM. True.
  • Schemp had 13 BT Championships. False. Schemp had 5 BT Championships and 8 Co-Championships.
  • Dantonio has coached 8 seasons at MSU. True.
  • Dantonio has 2 BT Championships. False. Dantonio has 1 BT Championship and 1 Co-Championship.
No difference? Many have claimed that a Co-Championship counts only as 1/2. Combining them takes a narrow point of view in order to deflect from reality. But that is not the reason for the breakdown.
 "Foul!" they cry. "Schemp had 13 and Dantonio only has 2. There are no other relevant factors!"

Ok. Let's consider another fact. MSU under Coach Dantonio had a 13-win season. Schemp never did.
 "Foul!" they cry. Schemp only had 1 season with 13 games and never had a season with more than that.

In his first 8 seasons as UM head coach, Schemp won 76 games and had 1 outright BT title, 5 co-championships and went to 3 Rose Bowls (0-3). In his first 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio won 75 games and had 1 BT championship, 1 co-championship and went to 1 Rose Bowl (1-0). Due to rules changes, MSU missed 2 Rose Bowls and 1 outright conference championship getting a Division Title instead.
 "Foul!" they cry. That's cherry picking. 76 wins versus 75 wins is not the complete record. And you can't take credit for things that did not happen!

How about this, then? In his first 8 seasons, Schemp was 0-4 in bowl games. In his first 8 seasons, Coach Dantonio is 4-4.
 "Foul!" they cry. The conference only allowed the Rose Bowl and did not allow back-to-back appearances. Not a fair comparison.

Not a fair comparison? Exactly my point. There are a lot of things that are different now than then and they all are relevant and need to be addressed to make a fair comparison. For example:
  • 1969 - 11 Bowl Games were played.
  • 1971 - NCAA went to an 11-game regular season. Prior to that, only 10 games were scheduled. The season was expanded to 12 games in 2006.
  • 1972 - B1G Ten allowed teams to repeat in the Rose Bowl. Prior to that, teams could only go once every 2 years if they won consecutive conference titles.
  • 1975 - B1G Ten allowed teams to participate in all bowls. The restriction of 1 B1G Ten team in just the Rose Bowl was lifted.
  • 1976 - NCAA split Division I into IA (now called FBS) and IAA (now called FCS). The division was based on stadium capacity.
  • 1982 - B1G Ten went to 9 conference games. In 1985, the conference schedule returned to 8 games.
  • 1986 - UM played a 12th game under the NCAA provisions of the Hawaii rule.
  • 1992 - Bowl Coalition was founded. A national championship was the goal, but it did not happen.
  • 1993 - Penn St. joined the B1G Ten.
  • 1995 - Bowl Alliance replaced the Bowl Coalition. A national championship was the goal, but it did not happen.
  • 1996 - NCAA eliminated ties by implementing overtime.
  • 1998 - The Bowl Championship Series replaced the Bowl Alliance and the first post season NCAA championship game eliminated championships by acclaim (i.e. polls).
  • 2006 - NCAA went to a 12-game regular season.
  • 2010 - B1G Ten changed the conference championship tiebreaker rules and included the BCS ranking.
  • 2011 - Nebraska joined the B1G Ten. The conference split into divisions and implemented a conference championship game.
  • 2014 - Maryland and Rutgers joined the B1G Ten. The conference realigned the divisions.
  • 2014 - NCAA went to a 4-team championship series to determine the national champion.
  • 2014 - 39 Bowl games were played, including the 3 bowls involved with the 4-team championship series
  • 2016 - B1G Ten will go to a 9-game conference schedule.
The rules changes are tabulated below.
YearsRegular
Season
gms
OT?B1G Ten
Teams
B1G Ten
gms
BCS Rank As
B1G Ten
Tiebreaker?
B1G Ten
CCG?
[1]
Repeat
Rose?
BT
Bowls
NCG?4-team
NCG?
1969-197010N107NNNRoseNN
1971-197111N107NNNRoseNN
1972-197411N108NNYRoseNN
1975-198211N108NNYAllNN
1982-198411N109NNYAllNN
1985-198911N108NNYAllNN
1990-199211N108NNYAllNN
1993-199511N118NNYAllNN
1996-199711Y118NNYAllNN
1998-200511Y118NNYAllYN
2006-200612Y118NNYAllYN
2007-200912Y118NNYAllYN
2010-201012Y118YNYAllYN
2011-201312Y128YYYAllYN
2014-201512Y148YYYAllYY
2016-????12Y149YYYAllYY
[1] When the B1G Ten inaugurated the CCG it eliminated Co-Championships and conference tiebreakers, but implemented Division Titles and division tiebreaker rules.
Footnotes:
  • The UM-MSU game in 1971 was a non-conference game (UM won).
  • The tiebreaker rules changed in the spring prior to the 2010 season. This change cost MSU the 2010 Rose Bowl trip; by the old rules, MSU would have gone. The vote was 10-1 with the sole dissenting vote cast by Coach Dantonio.
  • The divisions and CCG implemented in 2011 cost MSU an outright BT championship. As a side note: Wisconsin was given the win in the inaugural BT CCG by a questionable call on an obvious flop. 
  • An oddity of the CCG/divisions format occurred in 2012.Wisconsin won and took the BT Title but had a 4-4 regular season conference record. That is something that never could have happened with Schemp.
In today's world, a BT title comes through a championship game. So, if MSU wins 11 BT titles in the next 13 seasons, Coach Dantonio would have 12 outright titles versus Schemp's 5. Schemp never had to face the BT CCG.

What would be equitable? Counting Co-BTs as 1/2, Schemp has 9 points and Dantonio has 1.5. Add to this, MSU has a division title, which was harder to get with 8 conference games than the banner Schemp got facing only 7 BT teams. Count the division title as a 1/2 point, too. MSU winning 7 BT CCGs would bring the title score to 9 each and the MSU titles would be worth more than Schemp's by virtue of more conference games and the CCG. Still, 7 BT CCGs in 13 seasons in today's world is a daunting task, but not out of reach.

This season it is 9 but starting next year all BT champions will have played 10 conference opponents. Schemp faced an average of 8 conference opponents.

Coach Dantonio has never faced less than 12 regular season opponents. All future BT championships will come by playing 13 games. Only once did Schemp face 12 regular season opponents and never more than that.

Schemp had one 13 game season. All of Dantonio's seasons have been 13 or more (14 in 2011 and 2013).

It's clear from the rules that football today is more demanding and reaching the top has bigger challenges. The 13 of 21 versus 2 of 8 rant fails to address those facts.

No question about it...

Schemp had the easier road.

This is not the end of the story. Nor is it the beginning of the end. It is merely the end of the beginning.

Part 1, The Evolution of College Football Rules.
Part 2, The Total Records. (coming soon)
Part 3, The Bowl Records. (coming soon)
Part 4, The In-conference Records. (coming soon)




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