SpartanResource.com ~ BEATchUMps.com ~ DUMPthechUMps.com

Monday, October 12, 2015

HAS JIM HARBAUGH BEEN "RUNNING UP THE SCORES" AGAINST WEAK DEFENSES?

Many Michigan fans accused Mark Dantonio of "running up the score" last year when Michigan State won by a score of 35-11. Their rationale was that MSU ran the ball for seven consecutive plays with a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. That claim never made sense. The Spartans did not throw the ball even once on that final drive, but UM could not stop the running plays, leading to a final touchdown for the 24-point margin. Dantonio DID NOT "run up the score" against Brady Hoke.

What about Jim Harbaugh, has he been running up the score this season? Hard for me to say since I haven't watched their games. But I have checked the record, and here is what I found.

Michigan had no chance to pile it on in their first game, a loss to Utah. And they had only a few minutes left to play against Oregon State when their lead expanded to three touchdowns.

In their other four games, Michigan continued to
pass the ball frequently after taking a 21-point lead.


Here are the numbers:
  • UM PASSED 16 TIMES vs UNLV AFTER LEADING BY 21
  • UM PASSED 17 TIMES vs BYU AFTER LEADING BY 21
  • UM PASSED 8 TIMES vs Maryland AFTER LEADING BY 21*
  • UM PASSED 21 TIMES vs Northwestern AFTER LEADING BY 21

*very little time was left when UM took their first 21-point lead

Since everybody agrees that Mark Dantonio has been "taking his foot off the gas pedal" in every game this season, there is no need for me to look up the exact numbers in his games. We know that MSU passed only eight times in 43 minutes of game-time after taking a 21-0 lead on Central Michigan. And we all saw Spartan running backs hammering into a 10-man front against Air Force after building a 28-point lead.

So it seems possible that Harbaugh has inflated the final margins of his games this season by keeping his foot on the gas pedal on a regular basis. And you can't blame him, he's trying to pump up his program.

But what would the MSU game scores look like
if the Spartans kept throwing the ball in balance
with running after building big leads in each game?

What would the team statistics look like if they had done so?

And what do the teams look like who were on the receiving end of the wall-to-wall aggressive play-calling by UM? What level of "Team Defense" has Michigan faced while passing for 60 minutes per game?

The Wolverines have played only one team this season with a Team Defense ranking better than #66 in the country. Ironically, this was Northwestern, ranked #9 even after giving up so many points to UM. The other five teams on the Michigan schedule are ranked in the lower half of the NCAA:


UM OPPOSING TEAM DEFENSE RANKINGS
110 - MARYLAND
  96 - UNLV
  78 - BYU
  67 - OSU
  66 - UTAH

For comparison, here are the same rankings for the teams MSU has played, including three very bad defenses, and two pretty good ones:


MSU OPPOSING TEAM DEFENSE RANKINGS
112 - OREGON
108 - WESTERN MICHIGAN
100 - PURDUE
  85 - RUTGERS
  38 - CMU
  20 - AIR FORCE


What do you think of the original question:

HAS JIM HARBAUGH BEEN
"RUNNING UP THE SCORES" THIS SEASON?




----------

****** Click on NO COMMENTS (or # comments) below to enter and view reader comments. ----- Remember to check Spartan Headline links, updated real time, in the left column of SpartanResource.com (Web version only). *****Note: If you are receiving this post via automated email, you need to go to the site to view headline links and embedded videos in this post: http://spartanresource.com/ (Web version only). SIGN UP TO RECEIVE POSTS VIA EMAIL, TWITTER OR FACEBOOK IN THE RIGHT COLUMN.*****

4 comments:

  1. Your analysis is a bit on the weak side, my friend. The number of passing attempts is not a sure sign that a team is trying to run up the score.

    Sure signs of running up the score, or trying to...

    Up 31-0 with 3 seconds left in the half, passing play from the opponent's 27.
    Up 21-0 and changing the play calling to increase passing attempts.
    Up 28-7 with 5:46 left in the game, throwing a pass on 4th & 7 at the opponent's 36.
    Up 31-0 with 6:33 left in the 3rd, going for it on 4th & 16 at the 35.
    Up 31-0 with 3:30 left in the game, throwing a pass on 4th & 2 at the opponent's 16.
    Up 31-0 late in the 4th, throwing passes on 1st and 2nd downs.

    The sure signs are the UolM ran the score up (or tried to) versus UNLV, BYU, and Northwestern. The others? Meh.

    The forensics:

    Maryland vs UolM
    [1] 0-0 [2] 0-6 [3] 0-21 [4] 0-28
    UolM rush 20, pass 28 to get to 21 points at the 5:07 mark of the 3rd. Then rush 19, pass 7.
    UolM final score was a 4 rush drive for 24 yards.

    Nevada Las Vegas vs. UolM
    [1] 0-7 [2] 0-21 [3] 0-21 [4] 7-28
    UolM rush 15, pass 9 to get to 21 points at the 7:50 mark in the 2nd. Then rush 25, pass 16.
    Up 21-0, UolM play selection increased passing attempts from 37.5% to 39.0%. Up 28-7 with 5:46 left in the 4th, UolM elected to pass (incomplete) on 4th & 7 at the UNLV 36. Those are signs of running up the score.

    Brigham Young vs. UolM
    [1] 0-7 [2] 0-31 [3] 0-31 [4] 0-31
    UolM rush 15, pass 10 to get to 21 points at the 11:37 mark in the 2nd. Then rush 36, pass 14.
    Up 31-0 with 3 seconds to go in the 2nd, UolM elected to pass at the BYU 27. Up 31-0 with 6:33 to go in the 3rd, UolM elected to rush (9 yds) on 4th & 16 at the UolM 35. Up 31-0 with 3:30 to go in the 4th, UolM elected to pass (incomplete) on 4th & 2 at the BYU 16. Those are signs of running up the score.

    Oregon St. vs. UolM
    [1] 7-3 [2] 7-17 [3] 7-20 [4] 7-35
    UolM rush 22, pass 20 to get to 20 points at the 9:25 mark in the 3rd. Then rush 25, pass 7.

    Utah vs. UolM
    [1] 3-0 [2] 10-3 [3] 17-10 [4] 24-17
    UolM never led.

    Northwestern vs. UolM
    [1] 0-21 [2] 0-28 [3] 0-31 [4] 0-38
    UolM rush 9, pass 4 to get to 21 points at the 2:35 mark in the 1st. Then rush 36, pass 20.
    1st score was a KO return for 6. 4th score was a pick-6.
    Final TD drive, 1 pass was on 1st down, the other on 2nd down. Those passes are signs of running up the score.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 76, thanks again for "going deeper" on the running-up-the-score question I raised. And yes, it is "weak", in the sense that it is generic and intended for quick digestion by the masses. Sort of like fast food.

      I call myself a "stat-freak" but compared to you I am just a "numbers guy". You are like a Gourmet Chef of Statistics, while I am little more than a Short-Order Cook of Numbers.

      That said, I'm going to re-format your long comment above into an article. One thing I don't get is the bracketed numbers. [1] [2] [3] etc. Maybe I'm just dense, but if I don't get it, I'm thinking others may need help as well. Please reply here in the comment section, and I will have this article up and out within about an hour.

      Delete
  2. Since this piece is about running up the score, the metrics should be scoring defense/offense.

    The rankings:

    SCORING OFFENSES
    67 - UolM (29.5 ppg)
    56 - MSU (31.3 ppg)

    UM OPPOSING TEAM SCORING DEFENSE RANKINGS (MEDIAN = 71)
    103 - MARYLAND
    89 - OSU
    72 - UNLV
    70 - BYU
    32 - UTAH
    8 - Northwestern

    MSU OPPOSING TEAM SCORING DEFENSE RANKINGS (MEDIAN = 83)
    115 - OREGON
    106 - W. MICHIGAN
    102 - PURDUE
    64 - C. MICHIGAN
    60 - RUTGERS
    43 - AIR FORCE

    SCORING DEFENSES
    1 - UolM (6.3 ppg)
    42 - MSU (21.3 ppg)

    UM OPPOSING TEAM SCORING OFFENSE RANKINGS (MEDIAN = 87.5)
    116 - OSU
    110 - Northwestern
    96 - MARYLAND
    79 - BYU
    74 - UNLV
    26 - UTAH

    MSU OPPOSING TEAM SCORING OFFFENSE RANKINGS (MEDIAN = 66.5)
    94 - C. MICHIGAN
    89 - PURDUE
    69 - W. MICHIGAN
    64 - RUTGERS
    45 - AIR FORCE
    9 - OREGON

    Just grist for the mill.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Certainly UolM could have done as Coach Dantonio has done versus UolM and just run the ball. Harbaugh didn't. Any claim that Coach Dantonio ran the score up versus UolM in any of the games is purely bogus.

    ReplyDelete

Please sign in using the method most convenient for you. We do not receive your login information. This function is provided by Blogger.