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Friday, February 20, 2015

NO MORE RIVALRY "WIN STREAK TRASH-TALK" FOR MICHIGAN BASKETBALL FANS







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JOKE-OF-THE-WEEK FROM DAVE KIRKPATRICK

This joke was posted at the top of a comment thread on the Detroit News web site by DAVE KIRKPATRICK of Northville, Michigan. It was posted on this article. Thanks to Dave for our Joke-of-the-Week:


===


A family of Michigan football fans head out one Saturday to do their Christmas shopping. While in the sports shop the son picks up an Michigan State jersey and says to his older sister, "I've decided to become a Spartan fan and I would like this for Christmas".

His big sister is outraged by this and promptly whacks him round the head and says, "Go talk to mother".

Off goes the little lad with the Michigan State jersey in hand and finds his mother. "Mom?"

"Yes son?"

"I've decided I'm going to be a Spartan fan and I would like this jersey for Christmas".

The mother is outraged at this, promptly whacks him around the head and says, "Go talk to your father!"

Off he goes with the Michigan State Jersey in hand and finds his father.

"Dad?"

"Yes son?"

"I've decided I'm going to be an Michigan State fan and I would like this jersey for Christmas".

The father is outraged and promptly whacks his son around the head and says, "No son of mine is ever going to be seen in THAT!"

About half an hour later they're all back in the car and heading towards home. The father turns to his son and says "Son, I hope you've learned something today?"

The son says, "Yes, Dad, I have."

"Good son, what is it?"

The son replies, "I've only been a Spartan fan for an hour and I already hate you Michigan ba*tards."




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Thursday, February 19, 2015

MICHIGAN COACH JOHN BEILEIN RIDES TEAM TO "COACH-OF-THE-YEAR" AWARD FOR 2016







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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

UPDATED RIVALRY STATS: THE LAST 25 BASKETBALL GAMES BETWEEN MSU & UM







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BASKETBALL RIVALRY RETURNS TO NORMALCY






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Saturday, February 14, 2015

MSUSpartan76 RINGS THE BELL ON MICHIGAN STATE FOOTBALL RECRUITING SUCCESS

MSUSpartan76 responds to THIS POST on MSU recruiting, the "star system", and the future of the MSU football program.

On the high school football recruiting ranking system:

I do not buy in on that star rating trash. The recruiting sites are purely for the entertainment of their paying customers and they say as much.

Just an example. In Scout's rating system (1-20-40-120-200) a 5 start top of the class recruit is worth 300 points. A 3 star is worth 40 points. It is beyond any stretch of credibility to state that any single player is worth the same as 7.5 other players yet that is exactly what their rating system says.

As another example, the number 100 player is a 5 star and the number 101 player is a 4 star. 201 points versus 120 points? Nah. The system is too flawed to be meaningful.

Another fallacy of those ranking systems is this. No will ever convince me that a class of 30 3 star recruits is a better class than 20 3 star recruits.

Those stars represent, as the recruiting websites disclaimers state, the assessment of the recruits likelihood to impact a team immediately. A 5 star is assumed to be able to show up, start, and play at a high level without having much practice and very little time with the playbook. A 4 star less so. For the sake of argument, let us assume that premise is correct. The conundrum comes when a player is recruited by a specific team. If he is red-shirted due to a full roster at that position, then he can not contribute immediately and his 5 stars is worthless.

Furthermore, the variable growth development of teenagers is well known. For boys it runs from age 15 to age 25, more or less. Some kids go through their growth spurt early and others later. It is likely that in many cases the difference between a 2 star and a 5 star is 2-3 years of physical growth. In the MSU system, those late bloomers are being developed. There are too many examples of a 2 star freshman who leaves (after 4 years in the program) for the NFL as a 5 star player to deny the value of experience, conditions, practice, and teamwork.

Who is more likely to do a better job getting the right kids to play for a specific team? Is it the 20-25 "recruiting specialists" at Rivals or ESPN who have to evaluate 15,000 high school players in time to meet publication deadlines and whose primary job is to write articles for the paid subscribers? Or, might it be the 10 coaches plus staff members that evaluate and assess 100-250 players looking for specific skill sets that meet the teams unique needs?

-----------------------------

He specifically hits on this statement I presented in the post:
"No more "2-stars", "plan B" guys to fill holes in this class. Soon we will have to talk about the 3-stars going to the NFL from East Lansing. Darn. Consecutive top 5 rankings with recruiting classes between 30-40. What if we have a few years between 10-20? Dantonio does "more with less". Will he do "more with more"? Is it truly "more"? I think he got more plan A guys this year, so I'd say yes, rankings aside."

'76's response:

There is no argument or denial. There are enough examples of going for plan B guys to fill holes that happened in prior years to support that statement. But always with 2 stars? Even if that were true and it is not, Coach Dantonio and his staff have done a superior job of getting the right 2 star recruits.

So, I am not concerned about recruiting class rankings. I am also not concerned about Coach Dantonio and his staff getting the right kids to play ball for them. Retention is high. Off the field issues are low. On the field accomplishments are quite high, too.

Over the past several years we have observed a steady improvement in the recruits. The Spartan recruiting process is winning more of the head-to-head competitions for specific recruits than ever before. More and more often a kid offered by MSU is subsequently pursued by other schools and it's almost as if those pursuits are launched only because the kid has an MSU offer. Word is out. Dantonio and his staff have a superior eye for identifying the talent and "up side" in kids. OSU made an offer to a lowly 3 star recruit only after MSU made an offer.

Expectations, both internal to the program and external, have been elevated. The bar has been raised year by year and now it is as high as it can be set. In the next few years we can expect to see the improvements in recruiting reaching a plateau. I doubt MSU will ever have a No. 1 class for 2 reasons: (1) MSU is not in the SEC and (2) MSU does not offer those kids who feel they have to announce their decisions in front of a TV camera.

The bottom line is this. If MSU continues to have yearly improvements in the quality of their recruiting classes (as defined by the Spartan football program, not Rivals), what can we expect? We can expect the program to continue to strengthen. We can expect to be competitive year after year and winning more and more of those high profile games. We can expect attempts to poach the coaches. We can expect attempts to poach the verbal commits.

Can we expect a national title? Given the program continues to remain stable and the recruiting continues to improve, it becomes more and more likely.

Can we expect respect from the Mainstream Michigan Media Machine (M-4) or those "AA"s from AA? No. But that doesn't matter.

"It isn't over. It will never be over here. It's just starting."
- Coach Mark Dantonio, 2007


Return2Glory:

Again, I'll simply state that while the star system and ranking has it's flaws and inaccuracies, when analyzed over a large sample size there is something to it - - - to a degree. It's certainly not an exact predictor of an individual, but it's far more accurate than throwing darts while blind-folded. I'll throw this out from the previous post: 
"Another misinterpretation of the Dantonio magic with 2 and 3 star recruits is that it "proves" that the star system is a crap-shoot and has no statistical value. Well, MSU is more of an exception on one side of the curve while Ann Arbor U is an example on the opposite side. The truth is that, even under Dantonio (and in Ann Arbor), 5-stars do receive all-conference honors at a higher ratio than do 4-star recruits. And 4-stars are more likely to achieve the honor than 3-stars and 3's more than 2's (see the annual analysis of past recruiting classes in Spartan Magazine) So, on an individual player view, the stars appear to be a worthless "predictor", but as a group, over time, there is a better chance of scoring big with a four star recruit than a 2-star - yes, even for Dantonio. Basically, having a recruiting class with higher rated recruits improves the team's margin for "error" (injuries, busts, transfers, bad character). To Dantonio's credit, he really seems to have a knack for picking "character guys.
"MSU is winning more "Plan A" recruiting battles, even with elite programs, and that is the big improvement over time during Danotio's career in East Lansing - especially 2015. Coach D has already proven that he does "more with less". Will he do "more with more"? Is it truly "more"? Because of his recent success with more "Plan A" guys this year, so I'd say yes, this is Dantonio's best class and those "stupid" recruiting rankings agree. Of course, it doesn't guarantee a single thing, just ask your local chUMP."
~R2G

You can follow MSUSpartan76 on M-Live HERE.


From Offensive Line Coach, Mark Staten:

“The stories would be endless if you talked to us about guys where you sit down and finally have a chance to talk to them, or they might come to your camp, and there’s something that turns you off. You guys might see him as a five-star guy, but with character, grades, maybe a little of that attitude, that five-star, in our mind, goes to two (stars) right now. Then those two-star guys in everyone else’s mind who (have) outstanding character, terrific person, comes from a great family, ability to learn, they jump to five-stars in our mind.”

That is the Dantonio effect that
turns the ranking system inside out.





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Wednesday, February 11, 2015

UM BASKETBALL 2015 RECRUITING CLASS UNRANKED......BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST!

Michigan Basketball Coach John Beilein sure gets a lot of love, especially these days, eh? He's credited with more than 700 career victories, even though he seems to have just arrived to the college basketball main stage. His reputation says he "always" has his teams competing at UM, even though he finished in the bottom half of the league his first three years, and didn't make the second weekend of the Big Dance until his sixth season on the job.

But the man can recruit, can't he? So the story goes, anyway. He doesn't just "rebuild", he "reloads", right? That's what everybody seems to think.

But take a look ahead, at the recruiting class of 2015, most of which was signed formally last November. You will find that Michigan has, actually, NOBODY COMING IN THAT CLASS. And by "nobody", we mean zero-zip-zilch, the empty-set. As Monty Python might say, Beilein's next recruiting class is "null and void", it's a "non-class".

Therefore, it should surprise nobody that the Michigan Men's Basketball recruiting Class of 2015 is ranked nowhere at all. The late-signing period opens up in a couple of months, but at this point, Beilein is flat-lining it for new players.

The UM Answer is that they will experience great player development next year and there will be a redshirt or two who becomes eligible and that may all become true. Time will tell.

But it's a good idea to spread your players around in all four classes, using red-shirt years to the program's advantage. Not to have seven (7) freshmen listed on their roster, as Michigan has right now in basketball.

Did you ever notice that John Beilein doesn't
have many seniors from year to year?
If so, you're right, he doesn't. 
(More on that in a future article.)




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Tuesday, February 10, 2015

JIM HARBAUGH NAMED B1G CONFERENCE "COACH-OF-THE-MONTH" FOR JANUARY






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Friday, February 6, 2015

MICHIGAN FANS NOW CLAIMING "CLOSE WINS" DON'T COUNT IN BASKETBALL RIVALRY SERIES







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Thursday, February 5, 2015

MSU FOOTBALL RECRUITING 2015: Where Are All Those NFL Caliber 2-Star Recruits?

One observation about the 2015 MSU Football recruiting class is that there are no more "2-star" guys to fill holes in this class. Soon we will have to talk about the 3-stars going to the NFL from East Lansing. Darn! Consecutive seasons with top 5 finishes after big bowl wins with a team made of recruiting classes between 30-40 is pretty cool. What if MSU has a few years ranked between 10-20? Will they do better than #5? Yikes! That question is sure to tick off MSUSpartan76!

A folklore has developed over the years about Dantonio's 2-star recruits becoming conference stars and NFL draft picks. While it is true that Coach D and his staff identified these "diamonds in the rough" and turbo-charged their development, an important fact has been lost. In general, most of the 2-star and lower level 3-star players were not the "Plan A" recruits. While the Spartans landed some "Plan A" guys, many more ended up at Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ann Arbor, Penn State, Wisconsin, and even lesser programs such as Kentucky and Iowa. In most cases, the lower level recruits Dantonio recruited were needed when the bigger fish got away.

Another misinterpretation of the Dantonio magic with 2 and 3 star recruits is that it "proves" that the star system is a crap-shoot and has no statistical value. Well, MSU is more of an exception on one side of the curve while Ann Arbor U is an example on the opposite side. The truth is that, even under Dantonio (and in Ann Arbor), 5-stars do receive all-conference honors at a higher ratio than do 4-star recruits. And 4-stars are more likely to achieve the honor than 3-stars and 3's more than 2's (see the annual analysis of past recruiting classes in Spartan Magazine) So, on an individual player view, the stars appear to be a worthless "predictor", but as a group, over time, there is a better chance of scoring big with a four star recruit than a 2-star - yes, even for Dantonio. Basically, having a recruiting class with higher rated recruits improves the team's margin for "error" (injuries, busts, transfers, bad character). To Dantonio's credit, he really seems to have a knack for picking "character guys".

MSU is winning more "Plan A" recruiting battles, even with elite programs, and that is the big improvement over time during Danotio's career in East Lansing - especially 2015. Coach D has already proven that he does "more with less". Will he do "more with more"? Is it truly "more"? Because of his recent success with more "Plan A" guys this year, so I'd say yes, this is Dantonio's best class and those "stupid" recruiting rankings agree. Of course, it doesn't guarantee a single thing, just ask your local chUMP.

~Return2Glory

I recently sent a message to DUMP the chUMps contributor, ATownAndDown and others, sharing a few of these of these thoughts and questions.

ATownAndDown's Reply


"We're not selling hope here. We're selling results."
~Mark Dantonio on signing day, 2015

A little over a year ago I wrote about MSU needing to seize the moment and change the national perception of the program. At the time, MSU had the opportunity to go and play potential national championship contender OSU in the Big Ten Championship Game followed by a chance to face Stanford in the Rose Bowl and then a big game against Oregon early in the following season. MSU turned a lot of heads with the finish to the 2013 season, then fell short against Oregon and then later OSU. We can have the debate about MSU leading both those contests and the potential that the Spartans had to win those games all day. But they were losses and everyone started to ask, "Who has MSU beaten this year to be a top-10 program?" The Spartans answered all the doubters with a huge rally in the Cotton Bowl to beat Baylor who many felt was a team that should have been the College Football Playoff. The recruiting class is proof that the Spartans are successfully swaying the national perception. MSU is able to break out of traditional recruiting pipelines and where MSU was a consideration in years past, MSU is winning those recruiting battles.


"Is this Coach D's best class ever?" is a very loaded question in my opinion. From the standpoint of the program taking a step forward, yes it is his best class ever. Being able to have a 4-star kid from Texas ride for 2 days on a bus to East Lansing shows the demand to be part of this this program. When players from Ohio are refusing scholarship offers to The Ohio State University (a program that prides itself on being able to pick whatever Ohio high school football players it wants) that shows how much the program has progressed. On signing day, getting two really nice defensive players from way out West to spurn offers from West Coast schools shows how special this program has become in the eyes of high school players across the nation. This class is the best at showing where the program is at Nationally.


From the talent standpoint that story has yet to be told. Like Coach D said, we are about results now and not about hope. Right now every guy in this class is "hope" in my eyes. They have proven nothing yet. So its really tough for me to say they are the best class ever when I can look at the 2010 class and see LeVeon Bell, Max Bullough, Darqueze Dennard, Wil Gholston, Kurtis Drummond, Isiah Lewis, Jeremy Langford, Travis Jackson, Tony Lippett, Keith Mumphery, Mike Sadler, Marcus Rush, Anthony Rashad White and Connor Kruse with all their wins, accomplishments, awards and resumes. This class has a chance to surpass that 2010 class, there is no doubt about that. And that path starts now. They have signed their letters of intent. None of them wavered in the least in their commitment to be part of the Spartan Family. Now its time to work. I would love to see them surpass the accomplishments of the 2010 class. But they have a long way to go in order to do that.

~ATownAndDown


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SPARTAN WOMEN AIM FOR SEASON SPLIT TONIGHT AGAINST WOLVERINES

Rivalry Week continues tonight at the Breslin Center, as the Michigan State Women's Basketball teams hosts Michigan. UM took the first game a month ago in Ann Arbor, 74-65, for a rare Wolverine victory in this very lopsided series. MSU has won 22 of the last 25 games against Michigan.

The Spartans are severely depleted of viable players, with an unprecedented string of season-ending injuries and a rare mid-season transfer. They start only three veteran players who came to play as freshmen on scholarship. Those three have been regularly registering double-doubles in an effort to stay competitive, but the losses came fast once the conference season began. The "Big Three" are supplemented by two former walk-ons and two true freshmen. Michigan State is wallowing at the bottom of the league standings, one year after winning the conference title.

Here is the game preview from the Detroit Free Press:


Here is the game preview from the Lansing State Journal:


When these teams played a month ago, I saw the writing on the wall and picked Michigan to win by 18 points. The final margin was only nine points, but the lead had swelled to 20 in the second half, so my forecast was good, even if it wasn't "Vegas good". For tonight, we'll cross our fingers and say:


MSU by one point




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REVIEWING THE LAST TEN SEASONS OF MICHIGAN STATE AND MICHIGAN BASKETBALL

Time to update our 10-season retrospective on the basketball series between Michigan State and Michigan. The Spartans have won two in a row, but the Wolverine fanbase seems to think their team is still "ahead of" their rival, some would even say "dominating". We will soon show how their claims are based entirely on two separate three-game win-streaks, each of which was keyed by a one-point victory.

But for now, let's compare programs outside of the rivalry games. We look at overall season records, placement in the conference standings, and performance in the post-season. We choose a ten-year viewpoint because our number-system operates in "base ten", not because it's a convenient time-frame to make our team look good. (We used this viewpoint last year, and we will do it again in the future. We are not "cherry-picking" time-frames.)

Here is a review of the past 10 seasons of men's basketball at Michigan State University and University of Michigan. The following summarizes the success of each season from 2004-2005 to 2013-2014. (Results of this season are not included below.)


MICHIGAN STATE
  • 2005:  26-7 second place / final four
  • 2006:  22-12 sixth place / first round
  • 2007:  23-12 seventh place / second round
  • 2008:  27-9 fourth place / sweet sixteen
  • 2009:  31-7 first place / final four
  • 2010:  29-9 first place / final four
  • 2011:  19-15 fourth place / first round
  • 2012:  29-8 first place / sweet sixteen
  • 2013:  27-9 second place / sweet sixteen
  • 2014:  29-9 / second place / elite eight

MSU TEN YEAR TOTAL = 262-97 (.730)
Ten Winning Seasons, Ten NCAA Tournaments
Three Conference Regular Season Titles
Two Conference Tournament Titles
Three Sweet Sixteens
One Elite Eight
Three Final Fours


MICHIGAN
  • 2005:  13-18 ninth place 
  • 2006:  22-11 sixth place / nit
  • 2007:  22-13 seventh place / nit
  • 2008:  10-22 ninth place / ---
  • 2009:  20-13 seventh place / second round
  • 2010:  15-17 seventh place / no tournament
  • 2011:  20-13 fourth place / second round
  • 2012:  24-9 first place / first round
  • 2013:  26-7 fourth place / final four
  • 2014:  28-9 first place / elite eight

UM TEN YEAR TOTAL = 200-132 (.602) 
Seven Winning Seasons, Four NCAA Tournaments
Two Conference Regular Season Titles
Zero Conference Tournament Titles
One Elite Eight
One Final Four


Among other things, you can see that MSU has had three seasons with double-digit losses during the past decade, while UM has had only three seasons without double-digit losses. Overall, the Spartans lead the Wolverines in EVERY CATEGORY listed above. But you can't deny they've had a nice three-year run.




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Wednesday, February 4, 2015

JOHN BEILEIN LEADS TOM IZZO , 9-8






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JOHN BEILEIN AND TOM IZZO BOTH HAVE WON A NATIONAL BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP






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HERE ARE THE LAST 25 BASKETBALL GAMES BETWEEN MICHIGAN STATE AND MICHIGAN

Remember that "six-out-of-the-last-eight" crowd from last year? Michigan fans used the eight-game span because it served them well, but they were forced to change. They became the "six-out-of-the-last-nine" group, and most recently, the "six-out-of-the-last-ten" coalition. Well, at least they finally settled on a reasonable number (10).

We take it a bit farther, going back 25 games in the basketball series between Michigan State and Michigan. The current "break-point", the number of recent games in which the series is evenly tied, is 12. In the last 12 games, the series is tied, 6-6.

So UM has won "6 of the last 10".
They have also won "6 of the last 12".
They have also won "6 of the last 14".

Our 25-game span covers 14 years, a time-frame that offers a good medium-range view of the series. Some would like a shorter viewpoint, so we've broken those 25 games into five sequential five-game sets. (You can get a good sense of the series by viewing it in five-game intervals.)

Here are the outcomes of the last 25 games between MSU and UM in Men's Basketball, listed in chronological order with the winner and final margin (bottom = most recent):


(3-03-01) MSU by 21
(1-30-02) MSU by 27
(1-26-03) UM by 2
(1-17-04) MSU by 17
(2-24-04) MSU by 3

  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +66 points

(1-27-05) MSU by 11
(2-12-05) MSU by 15
(1-25-06) UM by 5
(2-18-06) MSU by 19
(2-13-07) MSU by 15

  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +55 points

(2-27-07) UM by 11
(1-27-08) MSU by 15
(2-10-09) MSU by 12
(1-26-10) MSU by 1
(3-07-10) MSU by 16

  • MSU 4-1 in games
  • MSU +33 points

(1-27-11) UM by 4
(3-05-11) UM by 7
(1-17-12) UM by 1
(2-05-12) MSU by 10
(2-12-13) MSU by 23

  • UM 3-2 in games
  • MSU +21 points

(3-03-13) UM by 1
(1-25-14) UM by 5
(2-23-14) UM by 9
(3-16-14) MSU by 14
(2-01-15) MSU by 10
  • UM 3-2 in games
  • MSU +9 points


Michigan has scored a pair of three-game win streaks in the past four seasons, each of which included a one-point UM victory. If those one-point wins had been switched, the Wolverines would have lost six of the last ten, rather than winning six of the last ten. That's a very small margin for arrogant boasting!

Here are a few other things we can conclude from reviewing the list of actual games played:

  • Over the last 10 games, UM leads 6-4 in games (but the Spartans have outscored the Wolverines by 30 points).
  • Over the last 15 games, MSU leads UM 8-7 (outscoring them by 63 points).
  • Over the last 20 games, MSU leads UM 12-8 (outscoring them by 118 points).
  • Over the last 25 games, MSU leads UM 16-9 (outscoring them by 184 points). The Spartans have had at least one double-digit victory during all but two calendar years since that time (2003, 2011).
  • The Wolverines have won by double-digits over the Spartans only one time since Monica Lewinsky became a household name, and that one game was eight years ago.
  • Four of the last six UM wins have been by five points or less.
  • 11 of the last 12 MSU wins have been by double-digits.




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