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Saturday, November 30, 2013

THE TEN-YEAR BATTLE: MSU FOOTBALL vs UM

Now that the 2013 regular season is over, let's update our review of the football rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan. Here's a look at the last ten years of the series:

Last 10 Football Games Between MSU and UM
  • Ten Game Record = MSU 5, UM 5
  • Non-Overtime Record = MSU 4, UM 3
  • Total Points = MSU 267, UM 228 (MSU + 39)

SEASON RESULTS OVER LAST DECADE
  • MSU TEN YEAR TOTAL = 76-50 (.603)
  • Current Bowl Games in a row = 6
  • Current Bowl Win Streak = 2
  • Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 2
  • Six bowl games, two wins
  • League Championships = 1
  • Division Titles = 2

  • UM TEN YEAR TOTAL = 77-48 (.616)
  • Current Bowl Games in a row = 3
  • Current Bowl Win Streak = 0
  • Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 1
  • Nine bowl games, two wins
  • League Championships = 1
  • Division Titles = 0

BOTTOM LINE:  Michigan State has a better bowl streak in progress, as well as a better bowl-win streak. MSU has "measured up" with league championships and division titles over the last decade. The series is tied in wins/losses, and the Spartans lead in points scored. The overall game record of the two teams is extremely close, with only two games separation over 10 seasons.


Do you want to see the "long version" of this article,
complete with all of the detailed data and stats?

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Countdown to Roses - Minnesota at MSU Post Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown To Roses - Minnesota at MSU
Minnesota at MSU Prediction Summary.
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In Countdown, it was acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards). Actual: 188 yds
Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards). Actual: 143 yds
Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points). Actual: 14 pts

Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards). Actual: 116 yds
Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards). Actual: 127 yds
Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points). Actual: 3 pts

Only 2 of 6 predictions were accurate.

Crow, roasted, is quite good.
Then there are crow tacos with salsa and beer.
Trust me, crow tastes pretty damned good when it comes with a Spartan Victory!

My personal prediction as posted in comments on MLive.com was 32-7. Not even close.

Next up, the Buckeyes at Lucas Oil, then off to the Rose Bowl.

GO STATE!


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A Viewer's Guide to games In Spartan Stadium and down the road in the Outhouse

So you made it through Thanksgiving and are not ready to settle in for some football. But your "boss" has set the rules to JUST ONE GAME.

Which to pick? (Assuming it is anything close to a hard choice, that is...)

Some help deciding.

tO$U versus UolM in the Outhouse

NCAA National Rankings and season averages:
No. 5 Rushing offense (tO$U) 314.7 yd/gm versus No. 14 rushing defense (UolM) 116.4 yd/gm
No. 6 Rushing defense (tO$U) 95.3 yd/gm versus No. 100 rushing offense (UolM) 128.8 yd/gm

No. 74 passing offense (tO$U) 216.2 yd/gm versus No. 80 pass defense (UolM) 236.6 yd/gm
No. 81 passing defense (tO$U) 238.1 yd/gm versus No. 62 pass offense (UolM) 234.0 yd/gm

No. 3 scoring offense (tO$U) 48.7 pt/gm versus No. 52 scoring defense (UolM) 25.1 pt/gm
No. 8 scoring defense (tO$U) 18.4 pt/gm versus No. 47 scoring offense (UolM) 33.1 pt/gm


A couple of things jump out.
  • Little Missygan is going to have another pathetic rushing game.
  • The Hairless Nuts will show the world just how overrated the UolM rushing defense really is. All season long we have listened to the chUMps claim the Spartan Dawgs are nothing but padded stats against cupcakes. Time for the Karma Kickoff.
  • Gardner will be forced to throw and tO$U will field several fly balls.
  • Miller will run at will (poor Will!).
  • Halfway through the 2nd period, the Scarlett will outnumber the Urine in the stadium 2 to 1 or better, not counting the bands or the teams.
The only quality opponent tO$U has faced this season was Wisconsin**. This one will not be nearly that good.

** If someone claims UolM is a quality opponent, then tO$U and MSU both add Iowa and UolM to their list of quality opponents and tO$U adds San Diego State and MSU adds Youngstown State -- they are all roughly equal.

Prediction:
tO$U 35 at UolM 3

Up the road in East Lansing another game is being played. The Golden Gophers of Minnesota have come for a visit.

Minnesota at Michigan State in Spartan Stadium

NCAA National Rankings and season averages:
No. 46 rush offense (MSU) 186.6 yd/gm versus No. 48 rush defense (MIN) 151.5 yd/gm
No. 1 rush defense (MSU) 59.4 yd/gm versus No. 27 rush offense (MIN) 207.9 yd/gm
No. 90 pass offense (MSU) 198.6 yd/gm versus No. 54 pass defense (MIN) 224.1 yd/gm
No. 8 pass defense (MSU) 177.3 yd/gm versus No. 115 pass offense (MIN) 143.4 yd/gm
No. 56 scoring offense (MSU) 30.8 pt/gm versus No. 37 scoring defense (MIN) 23.1 pt/gm
No. 4 scoring defense (MSU) 12.5 pt/gm versus No. 69 scoring offense (MIN) 28.6 pt/gm

This looks to be a much more intriguing game.
  • Can Minnesota run the ball like Nebraska did or have will the Dawgs show us they are ready for tO$U?
  • How big a day will Langford have?
  • Can Cook and the receivers move the ball? If so, things look very promising for next week.
  • The Golden Gophers do not have much of a passing game, so the Spartan Defense can box and wrap up their rushing game. This could be a slaughter, but Minnesota should not be counted out.
Minnesota is the 3rd quality opponent the Spartans will have taken on this season, Notre Dame and Nebraska being the other 2. Back in week 4, the Spartan Offense was still trying to find its game legs and the team managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (will some official assistance) 14-17. Nebraska gave a good showing of how far the team has progressed and Minnesota should be just as good a contest. The Spartans are 7-0 in conference play winning all by 12 points or more.

Prediction:
MIN 12 at MSU 25

The choice is this. Do you want to watch a football game or the slaughtering of a bunch of pathetic skunkbears?

Please note that there is an effort to place the Gulo Gulo on the endangered species list. That could happen by Monday, if there are any survivors.


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Thursday, November 28, 2013

MSU VOLLEYBALL BEATS UM FOURTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR

The Michigan State Volleyball team beat Michigan in straight sets on Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, earning the "State Pride Flag" for the fourth consecutive season. The trophy is awarded to the team that wins the season series between the two schools.

The Spartans were upset earlier in the season by UM, in a match that drew more than 6,000 fans to Jenison Field House. The Wolverines only needed to win one game in the match to clinch the 2013 series, but MSU won all three sets by scores of 25-20, 25-16, and 25-22.

Michigan State is now 21-10 on the season, while Michigan falls to 17-13.






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LET'S ALL SAY "THANKS" FOR SPARTAN SPORTS SUCCESS

(This is our 2013 Thanksgiving Day Prayer)


On this Thanksgiving Day, let's all say thanks to Michigan State University, for all the happiness that has come to all of us in Spartan Nation from the success of our major sports teams:


The MSU MEN'S BASKETBALL team is on a SIX-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #1 in the nation

The MSU FOOTBALL team is on a SEVEN-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #11 in the nation

The MSU WOMEN'S BASKETBALL team is on a FIVE-GAME WIN STREAK and is ranked #21 in the nation

The achievements of these teams has come through hard work, not luck; through perseverance, not chance; and through the dedication of hundreds of men and women focused on their daily assignments, not simply because a huge pot of money was left at their doorstep overnight.

While there are many more important things for which we should be thankful, we have all had many holiday seasons that we have experienced without the joy which these teams have brought to us and our families, as they have done this year.





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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

MSU FOOTBALL FRONT BURNER: Go-fer the Undefeated Conference Season

Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 


Panelists:
ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)

This week's Questions:
1. The Spartan Offense looked shaky and took lots of hits in the public eyes in September, but let's face it, right now they look pretty good. How much of the progress is due to player performance, and how much is due to coaching?

2. There was some discussion of how MSU managed the clock at the end of the first half. The television commentary seemed to be stuck on the idea that goal of that possession was to score. What is your take on that possession?

3. We can all agree that winning on Senior Day is a major priority for many reasons, but at what point should some of the starters take a seat on the bench to keep them healthy for the league championship game? Specifically, under what circumstances should Connor Cook come out, and who should be the first one in to replace him?

4. What's up with that Mike Griffith of MLive? He seems to always take a very negative view on the MSU Football team, with articles that highlight problems instead of accomplishments, and possible risks instead of potential rewards. Is he the current leader of the "Michigan Mainstream Media Machine", ostensibly working as a beat-reporter, but functionally trying to turn public opinion against the Spartans on a regular basis?


Panel Responses:

1. The Spartan Offense looked shaky and took lots of hits in the public eyes in September, but let's face it, right now they look pretty good. How much of the progress is due to player performance, and how much is due to coaching?

Players should always get their due for game-day performances. The catch by Fowler against Northwestern, the great games by Cook, and the whole season by Langford should be credited largely to those players.

But play-calling, pre-game preparation, and game-planning falls within the coaching domain. For as much as some people were calling out certain coaches by name at the beginning of the season for complaints, those same coaches should be credited with making this offense what it is today.

The Offensive Line is the real story of why the MSU Offense has become effective and exciting to watch, and the intricacies of line-play are so complex that it's virtually impossible to avoid crediting the coaching staff. Yes, those players are performing on the field, but they have little chance to be successful if the coaches don't put them in the right positions to do so.

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
I think you have to give credit to both players and coaches for the offensive development. I am still not buying too much stock in either group quite yet but players have looked better (which I would attribute to coaching) and they have executed too. The reason I am not buying stock in either quite yet is just the mistakes we still see. Play calling has missed big at times and players have missed huge opportunities. The big difference between this year's offense and last year, is this year they are able to take advantage of the position the defense puts them in. While to offense isn't putting the team on its back and carry things (like you see with a team like OSU) they have gotten the job done and there is something to be said for that.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Yes, Yes. It is illogical to assume all things remain unchanged. Likewise it is illogical to assume change can be instantaneous.

Those kids would not succeed if the coaches were not doing the job. What is the job? Conditioning, practice, fundamentals, film review, performance critiques, technique development, game planning, offensive schemes, game management, motivation, morale, conflict resolution (not much seen needing intervention, just FYI), media interaction, and a large bucket of other stuff that rarely gets mention but are just as critical to success as a completed pass or a made FG. It's all in the inches category.

The coaches can't succeed if the kids were not doing the jobs. What is the job? Strenght and speed conditioning, practice, fundamentals, film review, performance critiques, technique development, play book study, communications, learning the schemes, learning the nuances of their team mates, grades, social stability, leadership, morale, conflict avoidance and mitigation (not much seen needing intervention, just FYI), media performance, and a large bucket of other stuff that rarely gets mention but are just as critical to success as a well made block or a difficult catch.

The common denominator is time. It takes time to develop and mature. What we have witnessed this year is the envy of just about every college football team - constant improvement over the season and raising the bar and the competition stiffens.

We fans can take a lesson from this and can look to that program for quality role models:
Yes, we can take as a good role model an angry or upset Coach Dantonio deflecting an aggressive media question by saying not that question, ask something else.
Yes, we can take as a good role model Andrew Maxwell accepting the changes and diving in to make the new QB successful.
Yes, we can take as a good role model Isaiah Lewis walking off the field having been ejected for what was a questionable call that might have actually been wrong. His team mates gave him nothing but positive and encouraging words as he left, head held high.
Yes, we can take as a good role model each MSU player who handed the ball to the official and did not do some immature TD celebration. Walk away like it is no big deal, a common place occurrence, been there done that.


2. There was some discussion of how MSU managed the clock at the end of the first half. The television commentary seemed to be stuck on the idea that goal of that possession was to score. What is your take on that possession?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
To put things into perspective, it is the goal of every possession to score. The gross mismanagement of time is unacceptable whether it be a 5 yard penalty or a sequence of errors that keeps the team from moving down the field in a 2-minute drill. The Spartans seemed to be taken by surprise that they got the ball, which is also disquieting. We've seen miscues like this before, but it is more a surprise this last game because we actually have our expectations very high.

Now, on to the media. The media has seemingly gone out of its way over the past few months to paint MSU in the darkest possibly hues. We have seen back handed compliments. We have seen repetition of unsportsmanlike comments (the Hart insult). We have seen downplaying of successes and outright disparaging remarks at any and all shortcomings real or imagined. We heard ABC announce the game Michigan versus "Little Brother Michigan State."

During the game, at the end of the first half, a media person shoved a microphone into Dantonio's face and asked about the time mismanagement. The timing was mere moments after it happened and to my way of thinking all Dantonio was concentrating on was how best to address this to the team to get it locked down. No coach owes the media any time. No coach is required to smile and pretend it is hot stuff that this particular reporter or that one deigned to give the coach air time. From my point of view, the reporter was in the wrong and was rude. That question should not have been asked at that time. After the game would have been fine.

The shame in all of this is that we are obliged to talk about this in the first place. Coach Dantonio told the reporter to ask another question, which happened and it was answered. End of story.

The primary objective on that series was to keep Northwestern from getting the ball back in the first half. The Spartans met that objective.

While it's nice to tack on a few points as the first half ends, Dantonio knew he would start the second half with the ball and the wind at his back. That's two possessions in a row, and the second one was the better scoring opportunity. There probably could have been a timeout or two used on the controversial series, but what if MSU fumbled or threw an interception after calling timeout? Wouldn't that circumstance also have drawn criticism?

Like it or not, Dantonio is a disciple of Jim Tressel, and he plays by the invisible rules of "Tressel Ball". He is defensive-minded, and he plays it safe most of the time. With a two score lead and the ball to start the second half, running out the clock does not represent a failure in that situation.

No team scores on every single possession, and for the reporter to jump on Dantonio with two negative questions seems like an attack on MSU to me. The boy-reporter and the kid-announcers were either too dense to understand "Tressel Ball", or they were doing their best to make Michigan State look bad.

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
Hindsight is always 20/20. MSU took over with a lead with less than 2 minutes going into a strong head wind. They played it conservatively to open things up. Basically if you try and press and go 3 and out, you could be punting from your 15 into that head wind and give NW the ball around midfield with 60-90 seconds left. With the wind at their back, FG range was not that far away. It took 3 plays to get that first down and then we picked up 25 yards on the next two plays. So looking back, I am sure Coach D wishes he would have conserved some of that clock on those first 3 plays but that is knowing that you were able to move the ball effectively on the next 2 plays. You also have to remember that to that point in the game, Cook only had 2 passes go for over 10 yards (a 14 yarder in the first to Kings and the Fowler juggling catch and run). How confident could anyone have been that he could have popped off a 2 minute drive going into that wind?


3. We can all agree that winning on Senior Day is a major priority for many reasons, but at what point should some of the starters take a seat on the bench to keep them healthy for the league championship game? Specifically, under what circumstances should Connor Cook come out, and who should be the first one in to replace him?

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
Starters should come out only when the outcome of the game is certain. Now that doesn't mean you can't give a guy here and there a break. But in college football, wins are what matters and not what could happen the following week. What happens if we have this plan to pull guys to stay healthy and it causes us to lose to Minnesota, and then we go into the B1G Championship Game and lose to OSU? Now you have lost twice in hopes of winning one. I guess it is my view that you can't take eggs out of one basket and hope that it fills another one. Win the game in front of you. As for Cook, I think you have to keep him in until you know the game is in hand or at least 2 scores up in the 4th. Then Maxwell is the obvious replacement. Senior Day gives him the nod and I wouldn't be surprised if there is something game planned to get him in the game. I mean if Coach D went out of his way to allow Maxwell to take the Victory Formation snaps against U of M, do you put it past him to not get Maxwell on the field for Senior Day?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Every senior on the team has contributed in one fashion of another to the success of the program during their stay at MSU. If the game is well in hand, then substitutions should be liberal to give each senior a moment in the spotlight, if only for a series or 2. It should not be considered a preventative measure, but rather a just reward. Once the seniors have played, given adequate time and good game circumstances, the entire bench should be put in. If it is a hotly contested contest, then the seniors will understand. After all, they have bought in and want the win as much as anyone else on the team.

The first person going in should be at QB and should be a senior. 'nuff said.

It's very important to win this game, and MSU will have their hands full with Minnesota. It's possible the starters will have to play the whole game.

But it still seems like a three-score lead in the fourth-quarter should bring a few guys in off the bench. I would not like to see Cook and Bullough (among others) still pounding it out if the score gets to 20-3, or 24-7, or 28-10 in the fourth.

The consensus seems to be that Maxwell would come in for Cook since it's Senior Day, but at some point I would like to know if there is any reason for O'Connor to stay with the program. If things go very well, it's an opportunity for Maxwell to both come in, and then come out as a graduating senior.

It's harder to feature every senior coming out on their last play in football than it is in basketball, but the team has been trying to match that equation in recent years. I hope to see all of the seniors get a chance at the equivalent of kissing the "S" in Breslin on their way out, but we will need a good lead on the scoreboard in order to do that.


4. What's up with that Mike Griffith of MLive? He seems to always take a very negative view on the MSU Football team, with articles that highlight problems instead of accomplishments, and possible risks instead of potential rewards. Is he the current leader of the "Michigan Mainstream Media Machine", ostensibly working as a beat-reporter, but functionally trying to turn public opinion against the Spartans on a regular basis?

Griffith showed up last summer and played it pretty level for awhile, but the better the football team has played, the more his focus has turned negative. Consider the undertone and implications of these recent headlines:
  • "Michigan State Defense Slipping"
  • "Gophers Looking to Knock Off Michigan State"
  • "Michigan State Basketball Hasn't Made Believers out of Everyone"
  • "Michigan State Safety Kurtis Drummond Was Dinged by Northwestern Last Year"
  • "Northwestern Quarterback Kain Colter Could Present Some Problems for Michigan State Football"
  • "Michigan State Defense Humbled, Hungry to Atone for Miscues"
All of these headlines appeared while the football team was winning every game by double-digits, rising in the polls, wrapping up the division title, and topping almost every defensive category tracked by the NCAA. Griffith is the beat-reporter for the Spartans, meaning he is assigned to write stories for the people who follow Michigan State. He has been using his position to knock MSU around in subtle ways right up until this week, when he seems to have settled down just a bit.

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
Mike Griffith? Public enemy #1? No way. I will be the first to admit that I do not agree with the articles that Mike writes or the opinions he puts out there. And his headlines often leave you wondering what he is up to. But Mike is a fine writer that generally has some sound reasoning for his opinion. I do think he tries to compare the MSU program to "past programs he has covered" too much and is caught up in the media machine of having to produce to clicks by any means necessary. But I have never thought he was a fan or an enemy of the program. The other thing is that when you talk to Mike or interact with him online, he seems to have a different tone than his articles often take.

One final point to this. Mike will often point out things that we do not want to face as fans. Pointing to those facts or opinions that are embedded with truth can be tough to stomach when you don't want to hear them. I remember getting chewed on this past off season when I said that MSU's running game would be better post LeVeon Bell. It was my opinion that Bell was a consistent runner and you had to give him the ball but he lack of ability to break longer runs limited the teams running game. I didn't say Bell wasn't a great RB or that he hurt are running game. Just that he put a ceiling on it. This season we already have more yards and more TD's on the ground than last. A lot of fans didn't want to hear that Bell could possibly hold us back when he was so important to the offense last year but how many fans are changing their tune now. If you want to point at anyone that is part of the "Michigan Mainstream Media Machine" look no further than Josh Slagter. He is supposed to be MLive's statewide sports guy and was one of the former beat writers for MSU sports (in fact I think his profile pick on MLive is him on press row at the Breslin Center). I can't tell you the last time he said a kind word about MSU let alone posted an article about the team. But U of M articles and praise though...

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
I am not totally convinced M.Griffith has a negative view but rather puts a negative spin on everything. His recent AP vote put MSU at No. 8, for example. Part of this has to do with the business model to which MLive operates. Get controversy, get hits, get advertisement revenue. MLive writes the paychecks, so guess what happens...

I have seen other MLive writers present a much less biased view of MSU football on the UolM side, which surprised me. What I mean is the premise in the question could be accurate.

Of late, and we can thank dUMp the chUMps for this at least in part, a move towards center by Mr. Griffith, a shift more or less in the right direction. We have also seen concepts, vocabulary, phraseology, and data/statistics being incorporated by the MLive writers, too, including Mr. Griffith.

So, while I can agree that there is a negative spin, the conjecture that it is intended to influence public opinion is less likely that it is merely to stir the pot for the financial benefit of MLive.



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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

THIS DATE IN chUMp HISTORY: NOVEMBER 26, 1885

While the Michigan football team prepares to be hammered like a nail by Ohio STATE this weekend, Wolverine fans everywhere are heading for the hills, selling their game tickets, and calling for the heads of coaches, players, and administrators. In other words, "It's a great day to be a Michigan Wolverine!"

At least that's what I heard their young fans singing about after the 2007 game at Spartan Stadium. Singing very loud, I might add. Right at us, as we left the upper deck, all the way down to ground level and off into the night. Little did we know that little Mike Hart was crowing about "little brother" at the same time in the post-game press conference.

Those were the days, my friend, we thought they'd never end...BUT THEY DID END. And now the shoes are on the other feet. Blue and yellow shoes, about to be stomped into the ground by Scarlet and Gray feet. Here come the Buckeyes, ready to work on an "Urban Renewal Project" in Michigan Stadium.

So the Bluebloods are a bit depressed right now. If you know any of them, we have a way you can cheer them up! You can remind them of past history, you know, like "yesteryear" and old newsreels and such. And we all know how much they love to live in the past.

Just tell them about this date in history, in 1885, when the UM Rugby team scored a great victory over the "Peninsular Cricket Club". That's right, a rugby team played a cricket team and four score and seven years later, they relabeled it "football" as part of a promotional t-shirt campaign that never seems to end.

We're talking about the so-called "All-Time Wins Record" for college football, the main claim to fame by fans of Michigan football. They have counted up some seventeen-quadra-zillion "wins" in their history, and are all too willing to remind anybody within earshot just whatever their current number happens to be at the time.

And they're counting the big win over the "Peninsular Cricket Club" right there with any wins against Ohio State, Notre Dame, and their "number three rival", Michigan State University. It must have been quite a game.

The UM rugby players scored two "rouges" to go along with their touchdowns and field-goals for a 42-0 win over the boys from Detroit who reportedly had never practiced the new sport. The PCC specialized in baseball, tennis, and bicycling, and later became the Detroit Athletic Club.

Nobody led the team in tackles, as they were not allowed. Nobody led the team in forward passing, as those were not legal. No coach got credit for the win, because there was no coach. After the season, the UM student newspaper criticized the team for playing low-quality opponents. But hey, a win is a win, and it capped-off one of those "undefeated seasons" after two wins against Windsor earlier in the month.

So when Brutus rips the snot out of the Wolverines on Saturday, you can still cheer up your Michigan fan friends by raising a toast to that great win over the cricket-playing Detroiters in 1885!




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Countdown to Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)

Here are my predictions for the MSU football game against Minnesota.
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)

Each game is analyzed with performance-metrics calculated as a ratio of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm
Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm
Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

High/Low Ranges
MSU 32, MIN 7
MIN 17, MSU 16

Statistical Bottom-Line Prediction
MIN 12 at MSU 25



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Monday, November 25, 2013

Countdown To Roses - Minnesota at MSU (Analysis)

In Part 3 of Countdown To Roses - The Contenders, updates to the conference rankings and probable matchups in the march towards Indianapolis were discussed.

For MSU to get to the Rose Bowl, they next have to face Minnesota in East Lansing. Winning is expected, but win or lose, the Spartans are the Legends Division Champions.

There is a very real difference between statistics and what sports call statistics. In the sporting world, statistics is purely data aggregates and data averages. No real performance metrics can be seen in what is tabulated.
The simplistic look at the NCAA published statistics leads to the conclusions that (1) the Spartan offense will perform above their season averages, especially the passing game, with the possibility of a season average score or higher and (2) the Gopher offense will be stopped and the final score might not be close at all.

Statistics can be applied even though the data are too few to be "statistically significant," which means there are less than 100 elements in the data.
Each game is analyzed with each performance metric calculated as a ration of actual performance versus opponent season average, expressed as a percentage. Basic statistical analysis is used. When looking at the data using this statistical approach, what do we see?
(For all of the statistical details, read the original article here.)
MIN rush offense (No. 27) 207.9 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 180.9 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU rush defense (No. 1) 59.4 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 153.3 yd/gm

The Golden Gophers have been held below 100 yards just once this season. Versus conference opponents, they average 165 yd/gm. Minnesota was throttled by Iowa with 30 yards and had a romp over San Jose State rushing for 353 yards. Except for Nebraska, which was held to 78% of their season average, the Spartan Dawgs have held their opponents to under 100 yds and 8 of 11 games to less than 50% of their season rushing averages.

The Spartan rush defense performance has a statistical mean value (MV) of 39.9%, meaning the Dawgs have, on average, held opposing teams to about 2/5 of their rushing season average. The standard deviation (SD = 68.4% probability) is +/- 37.4%, which means the Spartan defense is likely to hold Minnesota to between 2.5% and 77.3% of their season average, which translates to 5.2 yds to 160.1 yds with the most likely result being 83.0 yds.
The Gopher rush offense performance has a MV of 113.5% with a SD of +/- 36.5%. The Gophers versus the Spartan defense are likely to gain between 45.7 and 89.1 yds with the most likely result being 67.4 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 45.7 to 89.1 yards. The highest probability range is 67.4 to 83.0 yards rushing.

Prediction: Minnesota 75 yards rushing (+14/-29 yards)

MIN pass offense (No. 115) 143.4 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 217.6 yd/gm
...versus ...
MSU pass defense (No. 8) 177.3 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 225.1 yd/gm

The Minnesota passing attack is the worst MSU has faced this season. 4 of 11 Spartan opponents have been held to fewer yards than the Gophers average. This deficiency could make the Golden Gophers 1-dimensional, which plays well into the Spartan Dawgs who excell in rush defense.

The Spartan pass defense performance has a MV of 79.6% with a SD of +/- 26.8%, which translates to the Spartans likely to limit the Gopher passing game to 75.7 to 152.6 yds with the most likely result being 114.2 yds.
The Gopher pass offense performance has a MV of 65.4% with a SD of +/- 23.3%, which translates to Minnesota likely to pass for between 74.7 and 157.3 yds with the most likely result being 116.0 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 75.7 to 152.6 yards. The highest probability range is 114.2 to 116.0 yards passing.

Prediction: Minnesota 115 yards passing (+38/-39 yards)

MIN scoring offense (No. 69) 28.5 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 28.4 pt/gm
...versus ...
MSU scoring defense (No. 4) 12.5 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 26.4 pt/gm

Minnesota scoring was high in the OOC games (41.75 pt/gm) but is 20 pts/gm lower in conference play (21.0 pt/gm). This drop off reflects the 3 conference losses (all by 13 points or more). Also, there have been 2 close (3 point) wins. Both Iowa and Wisconsin held the Gophers to a single TD. Michigan State has held opponents to under 20 points in every game except Indiana and Nebraska, both of which scored 4 TDs. Opponents in 5 of 11 games scored 6 points or less, including the Purdue shutout.

The Spartan scoring defense performance has a MV of 44.8% with a SD of +/- 26.9%, which translates to Gophers scoring between 5.1 to 20.4 pts with the most likely result being 12.8 pts.
The Gopher scoring offense performance has a MV of 95.3% with a SD of +/- 36.9%, which translates to the Spartans keeping the Gophers to between 7.3 and 16.5 pts with the most likely outcome being 11.9 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 7.8 to 16.5 points. The highest probability range is 11.9 to 12.8 points.

Prediction: Minnesota 12 points (+5/-5 points)

MSU rush offense (No. 46) 186.6 yd/gm versus average opponent rush defense of 181.6 yd/gm
...versus …
MIN rush defense (No. 48) 151.5 yd/gm versus average opponent rush offense of 182.2 yd/gm

Minnesota has held 3 opponents to under 100 yards rushing (Nebraska was 94 yds). 2 opponents rushed for more than 200 yards and another 4 were 189 to 199 yards rushing. The Spartan rushing attack has not been held to less than 100 yards this season and has eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games.

The Spartan rush offense performance has a MV of 105.6% with a SD of +/- 25.9%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 120.8 to 199.1 yds rushing with the most likely result being 159.9 yds.
The Gopher rush defense performance has a MV of 82.1% with a SD of +/- 29.8%, which translates to the Gophers holding MSU to 97.6 to 208.9 yards rushing with the most likely result being 153.2 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 120.8 to 199.1 yards. The highest probability range is 153.2 to 159.9 yards rushing.

Prediction: Michigan State 157 yards rushing (+42/-36 yards)

MSU pass offense (No. 90) 198.6 yd/gm versus average opponent pass defense of 222.5 yd/gm
...versus ...
MIN pass defense (No. 54) 224.1 yd/gm versus average opponent pass offense of 236.6 yd/gm

The Spartan pass game has been held under 200 yards in 5 of 11, but has passed for more than 200 yards in the last 3. All but 7 of Minnesota's opponents have passed for over 200 yards (San Jose St. passed for 439 yds) and the 2 of the sub-200 yd passing opponents were in the last 2 games.

The Spartan pass offense performance has a MV of 89.0% with a SD of +/- 30.5%, which translates to the Spartans likely to gain 131.1 to 267.7 yds passing with the most likely result being 199.4 yds.
The Gopher pass defense performance has a MV of 93.0% with a SD of +/- 19.5%, which translates to the Gophers allowing MSU to 146.1 to 223.4 yds passing with the most likely result being 184.8 yds.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 146.1 to 223.4 yards. The highest probability range is 184.8 to 199.4 yards passing.

Prediction: Michigan State 192 yards passing (+31/-46 yards)

MSU scoring offense (No. 56) 30.8 yd/gm versus average opponent scoring defense of 29.0 pt/gm
...versus …
MIN scoring defense (No. 37) 23.1 pt/gm versus average opponent scoring offense of 29.3 pt/gm

MSU has scored less than 20 points 2 times and has scored 40 or more in 4 games (55 vs YSU). MIN has held opponents to 20 points or less in 3 games and has given up 40 points just once (Indiana scored 39).

The Spartan scoring offense performance has a MV of 110.4% with a SD of +/- 47.7%, which translates to scoring between 14.5 to 36.5 pts versus the Gopher defense with the most likely result being 25.5 pts.
The Minnesota scoring defense performance has a MV of 78.2% with a SD of +/- 25.1%, which translates to the Spartans being held to between 16.3 and 31.8 pts with the most likely outcome being 24.1 pts.

The 1st sigma intersection of the 2 distributions is 16.3 to 31.8 points. The highest probability range is 24.1 to 25.5 points.

Prediction: Michigan State 25 points (+7/-9 points)

The win loss percentage of Minnesota's opponents on the season is 0.5000 (including a 4-8 FCS opponent) compared to MSU's opponents with 0.4463 (including a 8-4 FCS opponent).

Statistical prediction: MIN 12 at MSU 25
(1st sigma range: MSU 16-32 at MIN 7-17)

Min/Max extremes:
MIN 7 at MSU 32
MIN 17 at MSU 16

MSU is playing to prove the 2012 season really was just inches from a better season and the 2010 and 2011 seasons were not the anomalies proclaimed by many naysayers, especially the chUMps. Minny is playing to prove this year is not a fluke and to achieve a 10-win season for the first time since 2003.

This will be a game to watch, even if no titles or championships are on the line!

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MICHIGAN FOOTBALL HAS 18 SENIORS / MICHIGAN STATE FOOTBALL HAS 19 SENIORS - - - WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE?

Has anybody gotten tired of the excuses being peddled on behalf of the floundering University of Michigan football team? This is the bunch that maintained a Top 25 ranking after almost losing to both Akron and Connecticut. It was after those near-losses that we started to hear about how "young" their offensive line is, and those excuses expanded to claim that their entire team is young. We have debunked both claims on this web site.

Now "Senior Day" is approaching for both UM and MSU, and we have learned that both teams have a very similar-sized senior class:

  • 18 Seniors for Michigan
  • 19 Seniors for Michigan State

The "Michigan Mainstream Media Machine" (M4) continue to twist public perception in a favorable direction for UM, while consistently working to highlight faults and problems with MSU.

Don't get fooled by the M4. They have created a public belief system that has led to Ohio State being favored by less than two touchdowns against Michigan this weekend. Really? 12 points. REALLY?

How many points would OSU be favored by if they were playing Akron or UConn? Both of those teams ran step-for-step with UM this year. By all means, take Brutus and the points!




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Countdown To Roses - The Contenders Game 3

This is part 3 of a 4 part analyses of the principle contenders for the B1G Ten crown.
Review Game 1
Review Game 2

11 games in the books with 2 remaining. What does it look like in the B1G Ten race to Indianapolis?

LEADERS DIVISION
Ohio St.       11-0/7-0
Wisconsin      9-2/6-1
Penn St.         6-5/3-4
Indiana          4-7/2-5
Illinois           4-7/1-6
Purdue           1-10/0-7

LEGENDS DIVISION
Michigan St.   10-1/7-0
Nebraska        8-3/5-2
Minnesota       8-3/4-3
Iowa                7-4/3-4
Michigan        7-4/3-4
Northwestern  4-7/0-7

Leaders Division: OSU.
Ohio State faces Michigan in its tune up game for Indianapolis. It is hard to find a loss there.
UolM W-L% is 0.6364 (7-4), having lost 3 of the past 4 and the sole win was eked out in 3OT.

Legends Division: MSU.
Michigan State faces Minnesota before boarding the bus to Lucas Stadium. The trip is assured, but a win over the Gophers is far from certain for the Spartans.

MSU at Nebraska (Analysis)
MSU 41 at Nebraska 28 Post-Game

MSU at Northwestern (Analysis)
MSU at Northwestern (Prediction Summary)
MSU 30 at Northwestern 6 Post-Game

Minnesota at MSU (Analysis)
Minnesota at MSU (Prediction Summary)
Minnesota at MSU Post-Game

Ohio State vs MSU


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Saturday, November 23, 2013

THE TEN-YEAR BATTLE: MSU FOOTBALL vs UM

Let's review the football rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan. Wolverine fans are constantly bragging about their "all-time wins record", but to do so, they are actually counting rugby scrimmages from the late 1800s as "football". Here's a look at the last ten years of the series.

Last 10 Football Games Between MSU and UM
  • Ten Game Record = MSU 5, UM 5
  • Non-Overtime Record = MSU 4, UM 3
  • Total Points = MSU 267, UM 228 (MSU + 39)

SEASON RESULTS OVER LAST DECADE
  • MSU TEN YEAR TOTAL = 75-50 (.600)
  • Six bowl games, two wins
  • Current Bowl Games in a row = 6
  • Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 2
  • Current Bowl Win Streak = 2
  • League Championships = 1
  • Division Titles = 2

  • UM TEN YEAR TOTAL = 77-47 (.621)
  • Nine bowl games, two wins
  • Current Bowl Games in a row = 3
  • Current Bowl Win Streak = 0
  • Biggest Bowl Win Streak = 1
  • League Championships = 1
  • Division Titles = 0

BOTTOM LINE:  Michigan State has a better bowl streak in progress, as well as a better bowl-win streak. MSU has "measured up" with league championships and division titles over the last decade. The series is tied in wins/losses, and the Spartans lead in points scored. The overall game record of the two teams is very similar, with only three games separation over 10 seasons.


Do you want to see the "long version" of this article,
complete with all of the detailed data and stats?

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Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern Post Game

My predictions are published:
Countdown To Roses - MSU at Northwestern
and
GAME-DAY PREDICTIONS BY MSUSPARTAN 76: MSU vs NW
Numbers do not win games, no matter how cleverly they are presented and/or manipulated. Statistics can only give probabilities based on quality data. In Countdown, it was acknowledged that there were insufficient data for a good analysis. However, I also wrote that I had my spoon ready and I expect the crow to fly.

Prediction, Michigan State yards rushing: 165 (+23/-40) yds. Actual: 168 yds
Prediction, Michigan State yards passing: 211 (+54/-53) yds. Actual: 292 yds
Prediction, Michigan State scoring: 24 (+5/-8) pts. Actual: 30


Prediction, Northwestern yards rushing: 71 (+21/-24) yds. Actual: 80 yds
Prediction, Northwestern yards passing: 151 (+56/-56) yds. Actual: 239 yds
Prediction, Northwestern scoring: 13 (+7/-3) pts. Actual: 6

Only 2 of 6 predictions were accurate.

Crow chili, barbecued crow, broiled crow, crow stew, all good.
Then there is crow with salsa and beer.

Trust me, crow tastes pretty damned good when it's flavored with a Spartan Victory!

My personal prediction as posted in comments on MLive.com was 42-6. MSU knelt on the 5 to end the game. Had Drummond gotten a break, the game would have ended 37-6. Close enough.

Next up, the Golden Gophers, then the Buckeyes, then off to the Rose Bowl.

GO STATE!


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Friday, November 22, 2013

THIS DATE IN chUMp HISTORY: NOVEMBER 22, 1884

Michigan is all done winning football games in 2013, but that doesn't mean Wolverine fans can't enjoy another fine trip down memory lane. If you know someone who roots for UM, take note of this date, as it may provide solace while their current season swirls down the drain.

It was on this date in 1884 that the University of Michigan Rugby Team defeated the Chicago University Club, racking up one of those bazillion so-called football victories that you see written up on blue and yellow t-shirts. (Many decades after the game, they renamed the sport "football" in order to jack-up their all-time wins totals for marketing purposes.)

This was a huge event, drawing some 200 people according to The Chronicle, a weekly newspaper of that era:
Michigan played its second and final game of the season, an 18–10 victory over a Chicago city team reportedly "composed of business men." The Chronicle reported that the Chicago city team was "made up almost wholly of Englishmen who learned to kick shins at the English public schools."
The UM team scored almost immediately, then paused to explain the rules of the game to their opponent. After the game, the Chicago team complained about the uneven field conditions, pointing out that the home team was obviously accustomed to them. Gosh, some things never change!

A touchdown was worth four points, while a field-goal was worth six points. There was no forward passing and it was illegal to tackle below the waist. Nevertheless, every time you see an "all-time wins total" for Michigan Football, it includes this game.

So if you see a Wolverine fan looking glum after what happens in Iowa City tomorrow, why don't you try to cheer them up with a reminder that only 127 years ago, they took down a collection of English businessmen on a crooked field who had never played by UM rules before. And by Michigan standards, that's just as good as beating Ohio State.




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Thursday, November 21, 2013

SPORTS MEDIA SHOULD SHOW MORE RESPECT TO TOM IZZO

After opening up a can of whoop-ass on the sports media earlier today, it's time to clarify one portion of my critical commentary. This point concerns my complaint about how the local sports media "took off" with a series of stories and radio discussions about the so-called poor attendance at the Breslin Center on Monday night.

We all know there were empty seats at the Portland game. We all know that caused disappointment to Coach Izzo and his players. What was missed was that many people who were there were also disappointed to see the holes in the crowd.

When Tom Izzo told the local media that he was unhappy with the low turnout, it was the same feeling that everybody had, nothing different than anybody was thinking. Where the sports reporters goofed was to make it into an actual news story, as if it was genuinely worth such attention.

Upon closer review, non-attendance is a common phenomenon in contemporary college athletics. Reports on empty seats are available from across the country in various sports, even at the highest levels of competition. So what makes it a big story to see it happen in Breslin Center on a Monday night?

Since it's a common problem nowadays, it qualifies as a "dog bites man" story, and doesn't rise to the level of newsworthiness. Since everybody didn't like it, to hear Coach Izzo say he didn't like it either, is likewise, a "dog bites man" story. This was not a piece of news by journalistic standards.

To carry it forward like the local media did was like passing around backyard gossip. To justify the coverage on the grounds that "Tom said it" is irresponsible, since Coach Izzo shares many personal feelings with members of the local media. That's part of his personal charm; you always know what he's thinking and feeling.

But that doesn't mean everything he shares with reporters should be turned into news reports. What if he mentioned that his wife was ill, or that his son got good grades at school, or that he didn't like the pizza he had for dinner last night? You can imagine the silly headlines for those "stories":

  • "LUPE HOME SICK WITH FLU ACCORDING TO IZZO"
  • "YOUNG STEPHEN MAKES DAD PROUD WITH HONOR ROLL"
  • "PIZZA NOT UP TO PAR FOR HALL OF FAME COACH"

Running with "stories" like that is similar to carrying on about the empty seats in Breslin, just because Tom Izzo shared his feelings on the subject. Professional reporters are expected to exercise journalistic discretion about their work, not carry on like Hollywood Paparazzi chasing after juicy grist for the People Magazine cover story.

If it was considered an important editorial objective to report on attendance at Breslin, there were certainly better ways to do so. How about these examples:

  • THOUSANDS ATTEND GAME DESPITE MASSIVE STORMS
  • WEEKNIGHT BALL-GAMES STILL POPULAR AT BRESLIN CENTER
  • IZZONE COMES TO PLAY WITH FINAL EXAMS LOOMING

And if they really wanted the "attendance at Breslin" news story, they should take a closer look at the Spartan Women's Basketball program. The women's team just had three home games in a six-day stretch, drawing an average of more than 5000 fans per game. The MSU Women's Basketball team consistently ranks in the Top 20 nationally in attendance, so there's your "news-hook".

We have written extensively about the Michigan Mainstream Media Machine (M-4), but this is NOT an example of their style. This is just lazy, borderline-incompetent, snoozing-while-working, timeclock-punching "work" by the local media. The result of each process, however is the same; a subtle smearing of Michigan State University athletics.

Coach Tom Izzo deserves more respect, and so do the rest of us.




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Little Missygan Honestly

Posted on MLive.com: Michigan's Brady Hoke: 'Honestly, we're a pretty good football team'

"The way our kids stuck together, it was like a high school football game. They were (on the sidelines) chanting ‘defense’ when the defense was on the field."


High school is such an apt description for at least 4 games played this season, probably more could be added to the list if one actually looked at the games. The game that steps forward to the top of the list is the 3OT win over Northwestern, which "proves" the University of Little Missygan (UolM) is a top tier program and the M-4 is ready to propel them back into the top 25 with win at Iowa.

A 3OT win over a hapless 4-6/0-6 Mildcats team is proof of what again? A 27-19 decision means what exactly for a team that averages over 34 points/game?
Beating a middle-of-the-pack 6-3/3-3 Hawkeyes team in Iowa City is probably the apex of the season for 7-3/3-3 UolM, should they manage to get lucky enough to escape with a win. On the other hand, Northwestern took Iowa to OT before losing 17-10.

All this means is, after all the years we Spartans have had to put up with elitist crap posted by dUMb chUMps, Skunkbears, and M-4 (the Michigan Mainstream Media Machine), we are now witnessing this self-proclaimed superior program settling for mediocrity.

As well it should.

Thank you Coach Hoax for your honesty.


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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

MSU FOOTBALL FRONT-BURNER: Spartans Nearing Spotlight on National Stage

Our weekly feature on MSU Football brings diverse responses to
a variety of questions related to the Spartans program. 


Panelists:

This week's Questions:

1. The football team has nine wins now, the consensus-predicted win total for the season before it began. If MSU loses the next two games, will you consider the season to be a success?

2. Jeremy Langford came to the Spartans as a three-star "Athlete" with a 5.6 Rivals rating. Now he's on the verge of becoming a 1000-yard rusher as the starting tailback on a 9-1 team. How do you explain it?

3. The Michigan State Defense leads the nation in Rushing Defense and Total Defense, and is ranked in the top five in Scoring Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense, Passing Yards Allowed, Third-Down Conversion Percentage Defense, and First Downs Defense. Yet the mainstream sports media continue to put the Spartan Dawgs under the microscope each week only to announce that it's not a "legitimate" defensive unit. Why is this happening?

4. Did you observe any interesting developments, plays or story-lines from Saturday's game that may have gone largely unnoticed or lacked meaningful media focus?

(We encourage reader comments. Click the link at the bottom of the post.)

Our Panel Responds:


1. The football team has nine wins now, the consensus-predicted win total for the season before it began. If MSU loses the next two games, will you consider the season to be a success?

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
At this point... no it would not be a success. A 9-3 prediction was under the premise that U of M, Nebraska and NW were top-25 teams. Include Notre Dame as a top-25 team that MSU was supposed to face, most prognosticators would assume MSU would win at least one of those games and thus go 9-3. Well here we sit half-way through November and have gone 2-1 against those 4. NW is on the precipice of missing bowl eligibility. So losing the fourth contest would be a disappointment. While Minnesota has had a nice season, their only quality win was against Nebraska at home. You would like to think that this team could close it out strong too. These are winnable games, and at this point, losing them would be a poor showing.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
I am unclear where the "consensus" came from. The general opinion I saw in the pre-season was that MSU would be "lucky" to have 7 wins, including disparaging remarks about the Spartans not even getting to a bowl. Regardless, the season is a success already. 6-0 B1G Ten start is something that has not happened in a long time. The current crop of seniors hold the school record for most wins by a senior class through their journey. The squashing of the Ann Arbor Charm School ball club was a record setting event, too. All that aside, MSU is not going to lose the next 2 and might win them both.

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s True Lies About MythAgain Football post)
Yes I will, especially with a bowl victory, but I realize I'm the only person in the Milky Way Galaxy that would do so.

People have to be realistic about sports competition. If MSU finished 10-3, it would make three double-digit win seasons in four years. How can that not be "successful"?

The great thing about our situation is that we probably won't lose the next two games, but if we win the next two, then lose in the B1G Championship, ask me again, and I'll still say it was successful.

Success in this league means putting together a win-streak, beating your main rival, avoiding player misconduct, and finishing with a high win total. At this point, we've got check-marks next to all of those points. Everything from here on out is "gravy".
__________________________________________________________

2. Jeremy Langford came to the Spartans as a three-star "Athlete" with a 5.6 Rivals rating. Now he's on the verge of becoming a 1000-yard rusher as the starting tailback on a 9-1 team. How do you explain it?

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s True Lies About MythAgain Football post)
It continues to amaze me to see the Mark Dantonio administration find players that nobody else thought was very good and/or take guys with unrealized potential and make them great. So many cases like this already, now we have Langford.

The four other schools to offer Langford were Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Illinois State, and Colorado.

It looks like Langford "bought into the system", "worked hard and kept his mouth shut", and "didn't take no for an answer". He had one thing going for him to start, and that was his 4.4 speed. The rest of the credit goes to him and his coaches.

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
The kid can run. Look Langford has always been talented. The question was always could he perform on a consistent enough basis to be a starter. If you remember the fumble return he had a couple years ago against Florida Atlantic you will remember the raw talent he showed as a runner. It was a matter of controlling that talent and getting at least 3-4 yards on a consistent basis. It would appear that something has clicked because even to begin the season, it didn't appear that it was coming together for him. The way he as been getting his yards has been as a workhorse. He plugs away and gets better as the game progresses. Against both Nebraska and U of M, their defense just couldn't hold the flood gates closed and Langford was able to break big TD runs late. Very nice development by the staff. And hey, lets give some credit to that OLine in front of him too. They are definitely providing him with some opportunities.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
The offensive ecosystem is thriving. Passing has become something defenses have to respect. The offensive line is healthy and deep. Tight ends and receivers are making plays. Special teams are giving the team good field position and making the FGs.The defense is, and yes this includes Nebraska, smothering opponents, and the result is that a kid that can run with the rock in his hand is piling up yards.

Stars or Rivals ratings do not give any idea of how the kid fits into the team's system, how quickly he can learn the playbook, how quickly he can learn how to play as a team with the other players on the field with him, including on-field communications, or even how his off the field situation affects his performance.

What we have with Jeremy is a kid with good athletic ability, good potential, and a great desire to be the best he can be. Put a kid like that in with great coaches and he will always exceed his recruiting rating. Always.

About those stupid recruiting sites. Maybe 1/3 of the 15,000 potential recruits are ever assessed and those that are get their rankings posted within the first 3 months after the prior signing day and the evaluations are made by 20 "recruiting experts." Right. Ever try to read one of the in-depth stories on a HS player? Pay site. Those recruiting sites are not about assessments, they are about making money.
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3. The Michigan State Defense leads the nation in Rushing Defense and Total Defense, and is ranked in the top five in Scoring Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense, Passing Yards Allowed, Third-Down Conversion Percentage Defense, and First Downs Defense. Yet the mainstream sports media continue to put the Spartan Dawgs under the microscope each week only to announce that it's not a "legitimate" defensive unit. Why is this happening?

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Well, the Spartans have played nobody. Right? And never does Michigan State win a game, it is always a gift or they got lucky or their opponent just up and lost. So how can the team get credit for anything? Take a hard look at the Nebraska game.

  • Nebraska rush offense (No. 16) 240.3 yd/gm. They gained 182 yds vs MSU, or 76% of their average.
  • Nebraska pass offense (No. 89) 200.3. They blew the Spartan Dawgs off the field gaining 210 yards. 67 of those yards came in the final drive when the game was already over.
  • Nebraska scoring offense (No. 33) 35.1 pts/gm. The Cornhuskers got 28 points versus MSU, which includes that end of game TD.
  • The Nebraska offense was held to their 7th worst performance in 10 games and that does not discount the 75 yards in the final drive.

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s True Lies About MythAgain Football post)
The Michigan Mainstream Media Machine (M-4) was working up a lather all summer, getting ready for more bedroom romps with U-of-M Football this year...then reality hit with Akron and UConn. As they've been "jilted" by Brady Hoke, they're mad and they want to take it out on someone. And that would be MSU.

There is no such thing as the "Nation's Top Defense". The NCAA stats can help identify the group of teams at the top, but there is no way with open scheduling to determine a true #1 team, much less a true #1 defensive unit.

It is blatantly obvious that MSU has as good a defense as any other team in the country, but somehow the professional sports reporters can't let it go at that. Since there are no more glaring weaknesses on the Spartan team, they choose to attack its strengths.

In other words, the answer is: Media Bias (against MSU).

ATownAndDown (Follow him on M-Live)
I think it has to do with the whole premonition that "Its too good to be true." Bama puts up the numbers like MSU and they would have one of the greatest defenses of all time but that is because Bama is supposed to have the guys to put up video game numbers. That upstart school from Michigan that doesn't wear maize and blue isn't supposed to do that. So it has to be a mirage, right? I say let them call it flawed. Let them poke holes. Let them question who we have played. Narduzzi will use it and have the Spartan Dawgs ready for the next opponent, who won't find comfort in some mainstream media member's claims of MSU's defense not being legit. All you have to look at is the comments from Brian Kelly after the ND game. Kelly was scared of what the Spartan defense could do. And some of the mainstream media guys proclaimed that Kelly was supposed to have found the holes in the defense. I am sure if MSU makes it to the B1G Championship Game, the first thing (and possibly the only thing) on the OSU game plan will be how to get around the defense because the Spartan Dawgs are good... real good.
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4. Did you observe any interesting developments, plays or story-lines from Saturday's game that may have gone largely unnoticed or lacked meaningful media focus?

ATownAndDown
(Follow him on M-Live)
Besides the actual smile that Coach D gave when Langford ran in for that last TD? I have been on it all season. I am still not a fan of the play calling at times. 1st and 10: Williams rushes for 2; 2nd and 8: Williams carries two guys for 6; 3rd and 2: Williams in the Wildcat. Even if Williams makes that play its a bad call.

How about 3rd and goal from the 8... lets have a play where Cook wonders around like he is confused, direct snap to the RB to hand it to Lippett to pass to Gleichert. So that close to the goal line, you are going to take the ball out of your QB's hands, not allow him to make any presnap adjustments, take your best WR out of the play as a receiver, make your RB irrelevant for pass protection or as a receiver, in order to pass to a blocking TE or your QB? Why not run the statue of liberty play or is Treadwell's 40 time not fast enough?

We were picking up yards in chunks on the ground when we ran power football. You look at the big plays we have had, mostly come from running our base offense. Its not spreading things out. Its not trickeration. Its not goofy looks. So why are we so quick to get away from that? Nebraska's DC is the latest opponent to make a comment that was telling of the play-calling: "We need to stay patient because they will try and press." Basically, they went with the let them pick up chunks doing that because Warner will get impatient and call something cute and that's when we stop them. Are 13 play 75 yard TD drives sexy? Nope but they are TD drives just the same.

When I look at that missed play on our first drive with Lippett wide open in the endzone, I see a great play call. Play-action boot. Defense is crashing to stop the run and Cook is outside of the pocket away from the pressure (where he has been very good). When the DB realizes that Cook can run he had to decide to come up on the run or leave Lippett. We didn't capitalize but it was there for the taking. How many wildcat plays this year has there been anything there? How many WR passes have been super impressive? That play call wasn't fancy or deceiving. It just created an opportunity. Our players need to execute but the play callers have to create more situations like that through those kinds of calls. Not running the Oopty Opp offense.

MSUSpartan76 (Follow him on M-Live)
Start with Mike Sadler did not get B1G Ten Special Teams Player of the Week. 4 of 7 punts inside the 20. Nebraska managed 2 punt returns for a total of -4 yards and some of that is because of Sadler.

SpartanMan82 (See SM82s True Lies About MythAgain Football post)
I just think the coaches did a good job of showing "new looks" on offense, with formations we hadn't seen before, and some new plays. They didn't always work, but those guys are earning their money during the week.

One bone to pick, though. When we scored to take a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, we needed to try a two-point conversion to make it a 14-point lead. The only value of a 13-point lead at that stage of the game (34-21) was to protect against Nebraska scoring a touchdown and two field-goals. But at that time, it was very unlikely they would get three more chances to score. Nice to see that we got away clean with that coaching judgment error.




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